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The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change : unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action
Full text linkRecord-breaking temperatures were recorded across the globe in 2023. Without climate action, adverse climate-related health impacts are expected to worsen worldwide, affecting billions of people. Temperatures in Europe are warming at twice the rate of the global average, threatening the health of populations across the continent and leading to unnecessary loss of life. The Lancet Countdown in Europe was established in 2021, to assess the health profile of climate change aiming to stimulate European social and political will to implement rapid health-responsive climate mitigation and adaptation actions. In 2022, the collaboration published its indicator report, tracking progress on health and climate change via 33 indicators and across five domains
Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990–2021 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Full text linkBackground
Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020–21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.
Methods
We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.
Findings
Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325–364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120–4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98–2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1–29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000–611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000–320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1–104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000–555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6–49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5–27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000–459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000–194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9–46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3–61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9–35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1–18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8–78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6–75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.
Interpretation
Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK)
Nanoscale synchrotron x-ray analysis of intranuclear iron in melanised neurons of the Parkinson’s substantia nigra
No full textSo, what’s wrong with colonialism?’ – Understanding colonialism’s political, territorial and epistemic injustice
No full textDP-PINN : A dual phase training scheme for improving the performance of physics-informed neural networks
No full textPhysics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) are a promising application of deep neural networks for the numerical solution of nonlin- ear partial differential equations (PDEs). However, it has been observed that standard PINNs may not be able to accurately fit all types of PDEs, leading to poor predictions for specific regions in the domain. A common solution is to partition the domain by time and train each time interval separately. However, this approach leads to the prediction errors being accumulated over time, which is especially the case when solving “stiff” PDEs. To address these issues, we propose a new PINN training scheme, called DP-PINN (Dual-Phase PINN). DP-PINN divides the training into two phases based on a carefully chosen time point ts. The phase-1 train- ing aims to generate the accurate solution at ts, which will serve as the additional intermediate condition for the phase-2 training. New sam- pling strategies are also proposed to enhance the training process. These design considerations improve the prediction accuracy significantly. We have conducted the experiments to evaluate DP-PINN with both “stiff” and non-stiff PDEs. The results show that the solutions predicted by DP- PINN exhibit significantly higher accuracy compared to those obtained by the state-of-the-art PINNs in literature
Country-level dynamic capabilities and inward FDI : A framework on future policy adaptations applied to post-BrExit UK
No full textThe purpose of this paper is to establish a policy framework for those responsible for maximising the opportunities of inward foreign direct investment (FDI). Using the backdrop of the UK’s decision to exit the European Union in May 2016 (BrExit) alongside other global challenges (the COVID-19-induced supply chain crisis, political unrest, wars, new trade deals), we explore the changing nature of FDI entering the UK. We explain why an adaptive investment promotion strategy means greater and more widespread benefits of inward FDI for the economy. We propose a policy-oriented dynamic framework for how the benefits of FDI can be maximised during political upheaval. In our analysis and discussion, we highlight how changes in foreign firms’ FDI motives can alter the UK’s value proposition, and over time, the nature of a country’s specific advantages. Our proposed framework intellectualizes the need for dynamic capabilities at the country level (national and local) to sense and seize new opportunities from inward FDI, use this knowledge to mobilise resources and, over time, make changes to reconfigure UK’s location-specific advantages in a post-BrExit marketplace
Federated experiment design under distributed differential privacy
No full textExperiment design has a rich history dating back over a century and has found many critical applications across various fields since then. The use and collection of users’ data in experiments often involve sensitive personal information, so additional measures to protect individual privacy are required during data collection, storage, and usage. In this work, we focus on the rigorous protection of users’ privacy (under the notion of differential privacy (DP)) while minimizing the trust toward service providers. Specifically, we consider the estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE) under DP, while only allowing the analyst to collect population-level statistics via secure aggregation, a distributed protocol enabling a service provider to aggregate information without accessing individual data. Although a vital component in modern A/B testing workflows, private distributed experimentation has not previously been studied. To achieve DP, we design local privatization mechanisms that are compatible with secure aggregation and analyze the utility, in terms of the width of confidence intervals, both asymptotically and non-asymptotically. We show how these mechanisms can be scaled up to handle the very large number of participants commonly found in practice. In addition, when introducing DP noise, it is imperative to cleverly split privacy budgets to estimate both the mean and variance of the outcomes and carefully calibrate the confidence intervals according to the DP noise. Last, we present comprehensive experimental evaluations of our proposed schemes and show the privacy-utility trade-offs in experiment design
