Ice and Snow (E-Journal) / Лёд и Снег
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Influence of Atlantic on the warming and reduction of sea ice in the Arctic
Get PDFУстановлена связь между аномалиями температуры поверхности океана в приэкваториальнойобласти Северной Атлантики и аномалиями приповерхностной температуры воздуха и площадью морского льда в Северном Ледовитом океане в разные месяцы. Механизм формирования удалённого влияния аномалий температуры поверхности океана на аномалии в Северном Ледовитом океане связан с системой взаимодействий между циркуляцией атмосферы и океана, переносящих тепло в высокие широты.Influence of anomalies of the sea surface temperature (SST) in low latitudes of the North Atlantic on the sea ice cover and the near-surface air temperature in the marine Arctic is discussed in the article. Data on the SST in the Atlantic Ocean from the HadISST dataset, climatic series of the water temperature at the section along the Kola meridian together with mean monthly data on the sea ice extent and the air surface temperature in the Maritime Arctic and the Northern hemisphere were analyzed. Multivariate cross-correlation analysis was applied to determine the maximum correlation coefficients between the SST anomalies, climate characteristics and their corresponding delays within time limits of 33 to 38 months. Existence of intimate link had beenfound between changes of the Atlantic SST in low latitudes and the sea ice extent in the Arctic with correlation coefficients up to 0.90 and delays up to 3 years. A mechanism of formation of the remote influence of low-latitude SST anomalies on the sea ice anomalies in the Arctic Ocean is proposed. The interpretation of this mechanism includes into consideration the interaction between atmospheric and oceanic circulation modes
Оледенение Сибири и проблема пластовых залежей подземного льда
Get PDFAs a result of many years of the author’s studies of glaciers and ground ices, a great amount of factual material has been collected for a purpose to analyze a possibility of burying the glaciers in the permafrost zone and to esti‑ mate a time of their stay in such а condition. According to the author’s opinion, the Siberian glaciers were mainly the valley ones; ice sheets were never formed, and any existence of buried glaciers could not be real in the geo‑ logical time scale. However, some researchers still believe that in the Quaternary ice sheets occurred in the North of Siberia, and, in addition, they consider the local massive ice beddings as relics of these sheets. No clear expla‑ nation of the similar origin of such ice structures exists at the present time, so development and variety of this ice could be easier explained by the permafrost genesis. Basing on results of observations carried out in all glacier regions of Siberia, the author concludes that glaciers cannot exist in the form of buried ice for a long time. This is unrealistic even in the North‑East of Siberia, where the absolute minimum temperature is −67.8 °C, and the mean annual air temperature drops below −17 °C. The characteristic feature of the Siberia continental climate is short, but hot summer. In such a situation, the coarse fragmental morainic material, covering glaciers by the layer up to 3 m thick, cannot preserve the underlying ice from melting because the heat penetrates down with the air, liquid precipitation, and the melt water. When glaciers reduce, the dead ice, buried under a moraine, may be preserved in the coldest areas of Siberia for only 100–150 years. Therefore, despite the resemblance of the scarps of the ice bodies having the permafrost or glacial origin, consideration of them as relics of ancient glaciers would be wrong.В ходе многолетнего исследования ледников и подземных льдов в Сибири автором собран обширный фактический материал, на основе которого исследуется возможность погребения ледников в области развития многолетней мерзлоты и даётся оценка длительности их пребывания в таком состоянии. Сделан вывод, что в масштабе геологического времени существование погребённых ледников в Сибири нереально, а спорные, иногда относимые к реликтам древних ледников пластовые залежи подземного льда на севере Сибири имеют неледниковое происхождение
Изменения площади арктических морских льдов в ансамблях климатических моделей CMIP3 и CMIP5
Get PDFThe shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the results exhibit considerable spread. Here, we compare results from the two last generations of climate models, CMIP3 and CMIP5, with respect to total and regional Arctic sea ice change. Different characteristics of sea ice area (SIA) in March and September have been analysed for the Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature is investigated and dynamical links between SIA and some atmospheric variability modes are assessed.CMIP3 (SRES A1B) and CMIP5 (RCP8.5) models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in CMIP5 ensemble, most noticeably in summer when compared to HadISST1 data. A better simulation of summer SIA in the Entire Arctic by CMIP5 models is accompanied by a slightly increased bias for winter season in comparison to CMIP3 ensemble. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a high uncertainty. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes indicating that a part of inter-ensemble SIA spread comes from different temperature sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. The results suggest that, in general, a sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in CMIP5 models. Arctic SIA interannual variability in the end of the 20th century is on average well simulated by both ensembles. To the end of the 21st century, September variability is strongly reduced in CMIP5 models under RCP8.5 scenario, whereas variability changes in CMIP3 and in both ensembles in March are relatively small. The majority of models in both CMIP ensembles demonstrate an ability to capture a negative correlation of interannual SIA variations in the Barents Sea with North Atlantic Oscillation and sea level pressure gradient in the western Barents Sea opening serving as an index of oceanic inflow to the Sea.Сокращение площади арктических морских льдов в течение последних десятилетий служит, пожалуй, самым ярким проявлением изменений климата. Хотя глобальные модели климата в целом воспроизводят уменьшение площади морских льдов в Арктике во второй половине XX в. и предсказывают сокращение этой площади в XXI в. при заданных сценариях антропогенного воздействия, результаты моделей характеризуются значительным разбросом и систематическими ошибками. В работе сравниваются результаты моделирования площади морских льдов в Арктике двумя последними поколениями глобальных климатических моделей CMIP3 и CMIP5 в XX и XXI вв. Рассматриваются различные характеристики площади льдов в марте и сентябре для всей Арктики, Центральной Арктики и Баренцева моря. Также анализируются чувствительность площади морских льдов к изменению приземной температуры в Северном полушарии и связь вариаций этой площади с некоторыми модами атмосферной циркуляции
Аннотированная библиография русскоязычной литературы по гляциологии за 2015 год
Get PDFThe proposed annual bibliography continues annotated lists of the Russian‑language literature on glaciology that were regularly published in the past. It includes 245 references grouped into the following ten sections: 1) general issues of glaciology; 2) physics and chemistry of ice; 3) atmospheric ice; 4) snow cover; 5) ava‑ lanches and glacial mudflows; 6) sea ice; 7) river and lake ice; 8) icings and ground ice; 9) the glaciers and ice caps; 10) palaeoglaciology. In addition to the works of the current year, some works of earlier years are added, that, for various reasons, were not included in previous bibliographies.Предлагаемая библиография продолжает ежегодные аннотированные списки русскоязычной литературы по гляциологии, которые регулярно публиковались в прошлом. Помимо работ текущего года, в списке встречаются работы более ранних лет, по тем или иным причинам не вошедшие в предыдущие библиографические списки
Динамика ледника Фишт (Западный Кавказ) в 1909–2015 гг.
Get PDFWe have generalized observation data on the Fisht Glacier – the most western glacier in the Caucasus located at Pshekha and Belaya rivers headwaters at elevation 2450–2750 m asl. Considering location of the Fisht Glacier we might refer it as one of the most sensitive to climate change glaciers in the Caucasus. We used following materi‑ als: sketch map (1909), aerial photos (1954), topographic map (1957), detailed map (1:5000, 1982), LIDAR survey data (2010) and finally UAV data (2015). In two latter cases the horizontal and vertical uncertainties were less than 1 m. We note considerable shrinkage of glacier area from 0.9±0.1 to 0.5±0.01 km2 in 1909–2015, retreat of gla‑ cier termini was assessed as 200±20 m (eastern snout) and 350±20 m (western snout). We consider that during 1982–2010 the glacier was close to equilibrium, but during 2010–2015 glacier surface elevation lowering up to 15–20 m was accompanied by abrupt decrease of glacier area at about 15%. According to the data from nearest weather stations (Guzeripl’ and Krasnaya Polyana) and snow surveys over Pshekha catchment rapid glacier down‑ wasting in 2010–2015 could be explained by significant decrease of October‑May (accumulation season) precipi‑ tation and snow thickness accompanied by increase June‑September (ablation season) of air temperature in com‑ parison to 1982–2010. During 2010–2015 mean ablation assessed through degree‑day factor (DDF) was about 800 mm w.e. more than during 1982–2010. Basing on geodetical data on glacier change in 1982–2010 and ablation values assessed using DDF (4600 mm w.e.) we have roughly estimated mean accumulation at the Fisht Glacier as 4500 mm w.e. In 2010–2015 mean accumulation was at least 600 mm w.e. lower than in 1982–2010. As a result gla‑ cier in 2010–2015 the Fisht Glacier lost at least 1500 mm w.e. more than in 1982–2010. Basing on obtained results we could adjust regional pattern of glacier response to climate change in the Caucasus. Rarely applied in Russia both LIDAR and UAV techniques are recognized as precise tools for mapping of glacier surface in high mountains.Обобщены данные наблюдений за ледником Фишт – самым западным в ледниковой системе Кавказа. Результаты аэросъёмок и наземных измерений охватывают период 1909–2015 гг. За 100 лет (1909– 2010 гг.) площадь ледника сократилась с 0,9 до 0,59±0,01 км2. В 2011–2015 гг. ледник сократился на 15% (до 0,5±0,01 км2) вследствие изменений метеоусловий 2011–2015 гг. по сравнению с 1982–2010 гг. Апробированные на леднике технологии съёмки поверхности воздушным лазерным сканированием и с беспилотного летательного аппарата показали их применимость в горных условиях
Изотопный состав зимних атмосферных осадков и снежного покрова в предгорьях Алтая
Get PDFOver the past three decades, several general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean (atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models – GCMs) have been improved by modeling the hydrological cycle with the use of isotopologues (isotopes of water) HDO and H2 18O. Input parameters for the GCM models taking into account changes in the isotope composition of atmospheric precipitation were, above all, the results obtained by the network GNIP – Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation. At different times, on the vast territory of Russia there were only about 40 simultaneously functioning stations where the sampling of atmospheric precipitation was performed. In this study we present the results of the isotope composition of samples taken on the foothills of the Altai during two winter seasons of 2014/15 and 2015/16. Values of the isotope composition of precipitation changed in a wide range and their maximum fluctuations were 25, 202 and 18‰ for δ18О, dexc and δD, respectively. The weighted-mean values of δ18О and δD of the precipitation analyzed for the above two seasons were close to each other (−21.1 and −158.1‰ for the first season and −21.1 and −161.9‰ for the second one), while dexc values differed significantly. The comparison of the results of isotope analysis of the snow cover integral samples with the corresponding in the time interval the weighted-mean values of precipitation showed high consistency. However, despite the similarity of values of δ18О and δD, calculated for precipitation and snow cover, and the results, interpolated in IsoMAP (from data of the GNIP stations for 1960–2010), the dexc values were close to mean annual values of IsoMAP for only the second winter season. According to the trajectory analysis (the HYSPLIT model), the revealed differences between both, the seasons, and the long-term average values of IsoMAP, were associated with a change of main regions where the air masses carrying precipitation were formed, namely, the North Atlantic (the winter season of 2014/15) and the inland areas with open ice-free water bodies (the season of 2015/16). Thus, with the correct interpretation of the results, the data on the snow cover isotope composition on the Altai foothills can be used as an alternative data sources instead of the GNIP data.Приводятся результаты изотопного анализа состава атмосферных осадков и снежного покрова предгорий Алтая. Показано, что средневзвешенные значения осадков двух зимних сезонов (2014/15 и 2015/16 гг.) для δ18О составили −21,1‰, а для δD −158,1 и −161,9‰ соответственно и хорошо согласуются с изотопным составом интегральных проб снежного покрова. Проявившиеся отличия в dexc, очевидно, связаны со сменой основных регионов формирования воздушных масс, приносящих атмосферные осадки: сменой открытых ото льда акваторий Северной Атлантики на внутриконтинентальные водоёмы. При корректной интерпретации результатов данные изотопного состава атмосферных осадков и снежного покрова в предгорьях Алтая могут быть использованы в ряде моделей МОЦ
Ледовая энергетика: перспективы использования искусственных фирново-ледяных массивов для выработки электроэнергии
Get PDFThe problem of the fossil fuel depletion can be solved by means of searching, developing and using of alterna‑ tive energy sources. One of them is the use of thermogradient power plants, which are operating by the tem‑ perature difference of the ocean water near the surface and at great depths. But using of these plants is usu‑ ally limited by technical issues, and energy expenditures on the rise a large volume of water from the ocean depths. These problems can be solved using the natural cold accumulated in the artificial firn-ice massifs on the surface of the Earth. The application of a long jet sprinkler system makes possible for a day to create the firn-ice massifs with a height of over 10 meters. Relatively small number of sprinklers may be sufficient to freeze for the cold period a quantity of the firn-ice masses weighing millions of tons. Daily freezing pro‑ ductivity is approximately 75 tons of ice in recalculation per 1 degree of the air negative temperature. This method provides accumulation of huge reserves of natural cold, which can be stored for a long period of time with the use of thermal insulation. When freezing the firn-ice masses at the air temperature of −15 °С, 1 ton of firn requires energy of 0.5 kW·h, which is 190 times less than it is necessary for melting 1 ton of ice. The use of artificial firn-ice masses will accelerate the development and introduction of thermogradient power plants, and not only in the marine areas.Рассмотрен термоградиентный способ выработки электроэнергии на основе перепада температуры воды на поверхности и в глубине океана, отмечены его недостатки, которые можно устранить с помощью природного холода, аккумулируемого в фирново-ледяных массивах. Дана оценка производительности намораживания и расхода энергии на производство искусственного фирна. Определена эффективность разной теплоизоляции ледяного массива для снижения таяния
Cроки залегания снежного покрова на территории России в начале ХХI в. по спутниковым данным
Get PDFTime of the snow cover appearance, existence and disappearance on the Russia’s territory in the early 21st century (2000–2015) was corrected using the MODIS/Terra satellite data (the 8-day discreteness, and the 0.5×0.5° resolution). The satellite data errors were estimated from data of the ground stations observations. The errors were found to be maximal in autumn and minimal in spring. The relationship between the snow cover characteristics and the climate ones was investigated using data obtained at the ground-based stations together with correlation between dates of snow appearance and loss and the climate parameters. The dependences obtained were tested by means of correlation and regression analysis over the longitudinal sectors. Significant coefficients of correlation (the Student criterion of probability was equal to 0.95) were found between time of the snow cover presence and dates of the temperature drop below 0 °С and the amount of days with negative temperatures. Changes in the climate characteristics result in that due to decreasing of the solid precipitation in winter time the snow presence duration becomes shorter over the European part of Russia and in the Western Siberia. The shortening in the Middle Siberia is caused by the spring warming. Durations of the snow occurrence in the Far East area are different. On the Chukotka peninsula the duration is longer because of the autumn fall in temperature while in the Kamchatka region the snow occurrence time is shorter due to significant decrease of a period with negative temperatures in both the autumn and spring seasons.Оценена погрешность определения параметров снежного покрова в осенний и весенний периоды по спутниковым данным MODIS путём сравнения с материалами наземных наблюдений. По данным MODIS уточнены сроки установления и схода снежного покрова, а также продолжительность его залегания в 2000–2015 гг.; приведены карты этих характеристик. Отслежены тренды характеристик залегания снежного покрова на территории России в разных долготных секторах
Сезонная динамика температуры воздуха, снегозапасов и промерзания почвы в центральной части Восточно-Европейской равнины
Get PDFThe main objective of the research was to assess a nature of contingency in the seasonal course between char‑ acteristics of the soil thermal regime, surface air temperature, and snow cover, as well as to determine typical situations of their interaction. The investigation was based on results of the three‑year field observations per‑ formed in the Central part of the East European Plain. A degree of influence of different woody vegetation on the snow cover distribution under local homogeneity of the air temperature has been found as the following: maximal values of snow storages in the larch forests exceed similar ones on open sites and in the pine forests by 11‑25%. Inter‑annual changes of the soil temperature in areas with different vegetation were revealed to be very similar: differences in the temperature at depths of 10‑40 cm did not exceed 0.5‑1.0 °С. Phases of the soil temperature seasonal variations were isolated, and they were found to be closely related to changes in the sur‑ face air temperature and snow depths. During the period when the snow cover is steady (in winters), the soil temperature at a depth of 10‑40 cm becomes stable almost everywhere within the range from +1.0 to −1.0 °C. This suggests that in this period it does not depend on the landscape conditions, changes in the snow depth, and fluctuations in the surface air temperature. Thus, we make a conclusion that trends in multi‑year course of the soil temperature are primarily determined by variability of the surface air temperature during autumn and spring periods that may be also true for winters similar to mean ones in the center of the East European Plain.Приведены результаты трёхлетних (2014–2016 гг.) исследований локальной изменчивости температуры почвы в зимний период в центре Восточно-Европейской равнины в связи с изменениями приземной температуры воздуха и снежного покрова. Выделены фазы с характерными сочетаниями хода температуры почвы, приземной температуры воздуха и толщины снега, идентичные для всех участков независимо от типа растительности и условий снежности конкретного года
Изменение климата в районе массива Ак-Шийрак и его влияние на ледники
Get PDFThe data from Tien Shan meteorological station (3614 m a.s.l.) were used to analyze the climate changes (the air temperature and precipitation) in the area of glaciation of the Ak-Shyirak massive over the period of 1930–2015 years. In 1999, this station had been moved to a new position, and for the later years, data on the air temperature and precipitation were brought to homogeneous series by methods of differences and correlations. Coefficients of linear trends of annual/monthly values of temperatures and precipitation sums were calculated for the following three periods: 1930–1975 – stable global climate (b1); 1976–2015 – global warming (b2), and 1930–2015 – period of instrumental observations as a whole (b3). In addition, for the practical use, we calculated climatic values of the temperature and precipitation for different standard time intervals within the period under investigation. It was revealed that the average annual temperatures in the region rose over the years at the rate of 0,188 °C/10 years, while in 1930–1975 years this rate was 3,5 times smaller (b1 = 0,110 °C/10 years) than in 1976–2015 years (b2 = 0,375 °C/10 years). The highest rates were recorded in February (b2 = 1,043 °C/10 years) and March (b2 = 0,855 °C/10 years). Precipitations are known to have significant inter-annual variability (especially in 1975–2000), so only the b3 trend is used as the rep‑ resentative one, obtained over the whole period of observations. During this period, the annual sum of pre‑ cipitation decreased at the rate of −7,88 mm/10 years, but during the seasons both, decreasing and increas‑ ing in precipitation, was observed within limits of changes of the trends: from −4,420 mm/10 years (July) to 0,743 mm/10 years (February). These climate changes were compared with decrease of the glaciation param‑ eters in the Ak-Shyirak massive for 1943–1976 and 1977–2003 periods, in particular, area (ΔS), height of the glacier surfaces (ΔH), and their volumes (ΔV). By the second period, the rate of decreasing of these param‑ eters had grown by the factor 1.5–2, while the temperature changes according to the above trends increased, on the average for a year, by factor 2.7, and the change in precipitation decreased by 20%.По многолетним наблюдениям (1930–2015 гг.) на метеорологической станции Тянь-Шань (3 610 м над ур. моря) проанализированы происходящие климатические изменения в районе высокогорного массива Ак-Шийрак во Внутреннем Тянь-Шане. Для трёх периодов (1930–1975, 1976–2015, 1930–2015 гг.) определены характеристики линейных трендов температуры воздуха и осадков, а также нормы их многолетних средних значений. Полученные результаты сопоставлены с данными об изменениях ледников в массиве Ак-Шийрак