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Общественное восприятие изменения климата в холодных регионах России: пример Якутии
Get PDFThe rate of climate change in the Russian cold regions is nearly twice larger than the global‑mean rate. Besides climate risks, such changes lead to new possibilities, which require scientifically based regional adaptation strategies. Climate could be viewed as an inexhaustible public resource that creates opportuni‑ ties for sustainable development. Long‑term trends show that climate as a resource is becoming more read‑ ily available in the cold regions, notwithstanding the general perception that globally climate change is one of the challenges of the 21st century. Adaptation strategies are required for balancing the risks and potential benefits resulting from the changing climate. Success of such strategies depends on the public perception of climate change. This study compares the observational data on climate and environmental changes with the results of the public survey conducted in Yakutia in the period 2012–2017. The survey involved nearly 2000 respondents in several cities and 2 villages (Ust‑Maja, Saskhulakh) representing different economical, socio‑ logical, permafrost, vegetation, and climatic conditions. Results indicated that public perception of the climatic and environmental changes is not univocal, and depends on many factors. Low probability extreme events, such as unusual weather patterns or abrupt land‑ scape changes may have greater effect than the long‑term climate trends. Currently less than half of the pop‑ ulation in Yakutia consider climate change as an established fact, and are ready to take actions in this regard. Meanwhile, Yakutia is a region where observational records demonstrate the most pronounced changes in climatic regime compared to other Russian regions. The contrast between the actual changes and public per‑ ception of such changes has important implication for developing adaptation strategies. To be effective, such strategies should combine knowledge coming from instrumental‑ and model‑based analysis of the climatic and environmental changes with the public perception of such changes.В статье исследуется вопрос о том, насколько население холодных регионов информировано об изменении климата и готово адаптироваться к нему. Анализируются результаты социологических опросов, проводившихся в Якутии в 2012–2017 гг. Ответы почти 2 тыс. респондентов показали, что общественное восприятие климатических изменений не всегда объективно и зависит от многих факторов. Респонденты отмечают объективный характер современных изменений климата и их начавшееся воздействие на некоторые виды деятельности, условия труда и отдыха населения
О влиянии гляциологических и гидрометеорологических условий на гляциальную опасность Заилийского Алатау
Get PDFA need to estimate a hazard of a mudflow stream appearance in the glacial-nival zone of the Northern slope of Zailiyskiy Alatau (Kasakhstan) is now one of the really urgent problems. The objective of this study was to inves‑ tigate influence of glacial and hydrometeorological factors on the condition of snow-glacial zone of Zailiyskiy Alatau and find out a mudflow-forming role of the mudflow centers arising due to climate warming and degra‑ dation of glaciation: periglacial lakes, intramoraine channels and reservoirs, and also talik massifs of morainic deposits. We analyzed glacial processes in the Zailiysky Alatau over a long period using meteorological data of the Almaty weather station and its close correlations with data from weather stations in the mountains. The area of glaciations was found out to be reduced after the maximum of the Little Ice Age. A combined diagram of occurrence of the mudflow manifestations and factors causing them had been constructed on the basis of sta‑ tistical data on the landslide phenomena. Glacial mudflows were the most frequent in 1960–1990, and later on activity of them became weaker. We believe, that in the next 10–20 years, the glacial mudflow hazard in Zailiys‑ kiy Alatau can sharply decrease, but at the same time, a probability of occurrence of the rainfall mudflows can increase in the mountainous zone of the ridge due the increase of areas with melted moraine and slope deposits.Для территории северного склона хр. Заилийский Алатау (Тянь-Шань) по натурным данным за 100-летний период исследованы изменения климата, характер деградации оледенения и динамика возникновения опасных гляциогидрологических явлений. Указанные явления опосредованно связаны с изменением климата и представляют собой следствие развития моренно-ледниковых комплексов до их опасного состояния при деградации оледенения. Такое состояние моренно-ледниковых комплексов было характерно для периода деградации оледенения в 1960–2000 гг., когда оно сократилось на 55–80% после максимума малого ледникового периода. В настоящее время опасность гляциальной зоны Заилийского Алатау находится на спаде
Фенольные соединения в скважине 5Г на станции Восток после вскрытия подледникового озера
Get PDFThe main results after the first unlocking into the subglacial Lake Vostok were as follows: the Lake had been opened and not polluted; the water pressure within the lake was not balanced by a column of the drilling liquid that resulted in unplanned rise of water in the borehole up to 340 m. The main problem during the drilling in the lake ice was to prevent a pollution of water by the drilling fluid, which filled the borehole, and thus, to avoid a compression of the fluid which could be the main source of chemical and biological pollution of not only the Lake itself, but also the Lake water samples and ice cores. The article presents results of analysis of causes for the occurrence of phenolic compounds in the central channel in the core of secondary ice, being formed by the lake water that rose into the well after the first penetration (the range of depths was 3426–3450 m). It was found that the process, running within the borehole during the drilling, can be described as the fractionation of phenolic compounds, being contained in the filling liquid, to the water phase with its subsequent freezing. We have developed methods for the determination of concentrations of phenolic compounds in the original aviation kerosene and Freon HCFC-141b: 6. mg·l−1 and 0.032 mg·l−1, respectively. To analyze the composition of phenolic compounds in the extract of real filling liquid, located at the bottom of the borehole, the method of gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was used. The corresponding peaks were quite well resolved and identified as phenol and its derivatives. The main components of the extract were phenol (20%), 2.5-dimethyl phenol (23,8%), 2,4,6-trimethylphenol, and other congeners of phenol. In our case, the Lake Vostok was not polluted during both, the first and second penetrations, however, the problem of human impact on these pristine and unique subglacial reservoirs remains extremely relevant. This impact includes not only direct water pollution of the lake by the drilling fluid, but also possible changes in organic components of the liquid when contacting with the lake water under natural conditions of a deep well. Our data have demonstrated that using of such complex organic liquids, like aviation kerosene formerly used in many drilling projects, is undesirable when exploring deep Antarctic subglacial lakes. Thus, we come to the conclusion that the drilling fluid, currently used at the Vostok station (in the Vostok borehole), has to be replaced by another more inert fluid that would allow further research and exploration of the Lake Vostok.Рассмотрены причины появления фенольных соединений в центральном канале керна вторичного льда, образованного озёрной водой, поступившей в скважину при вскрытии озера Восток. Выяснено, что это – процесс фракционирования фенольных соединений, изначально присутствующих в заливочной жидкости, в водную фазу с её последующим замерзанием. Определён состав фенолов в заливочной жидкости на дне скважины. Сделан вывод, что используемую ныне заливочную жидкость следует заменить на другую, более инертную жидкость, которая не будет реагировать с подледниковой водой и позволит корректно проводить дальнейшие исследования озера Восток
Динамика массы льда в Антарктиде в эпоху потепления
Get PDFThe modern age of global warming affect the general state of the Antarctic ice sheet and its mass balance. Studies of the Southern polar region of the Earth during the International Geophysical Year (1957–1958) called the assumption of growth in the modern ice mass in East Antarctica. However, with the development of new methods, this conclusion has been questioned. At the turn of the century the study of global processes Earth started to use the satellite radar or laser altimetry and satellite gravimetry, which allows determining change of different masses on the Earth, including ice bodies. From the beginning of the XXI century, these methods have been used to calculate the continental ice balance. In our study, we analyze different data of recent years, supporting the earlier conclusion on continued growth of the ice mass in East Antarctica. How‑ ever, in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, on the contrary, there is increased loss of ice, leveling the increased income of ice mass of in the Central Antarctica. So all in all in the modern era of global warm‑ ing, the ice mass in Antarctica appears to be decreasing despite some growth of the East Antarctic ice sheet. Fluctuations of land ice mass reflect in the sea level variations, but in comparison with the scale of the Ant‑ arctic ice sheet its contribution to sea‑level rise is not so significant. The main reason for this is that the mass accumulation in East Antarctica with significant probability prevails over the ice outflow.Анализируются исследования ХХ в., а также материалы последних лет, включая спутниковую альтиметрию (радарную и лазерную) и спутниковую гравиметрию, с помощью которых определяют изменение массы льда. Подтверждаются заключения гляциологов о продолжающемся росте массы льда в Восточной Антарктиде. Однако в Западной Антарктиде и на Антарктическом полуострове, наоборот, таяние льда усилилось, поэтому в целом в современную эпоху глобального потепления масса льда в Антарктиде, по-видимому, убывает, несмотря на некоторый рост Восточно-антарктического ледникового покрова
Пространственное распределение снежного покрова и поле температур в верхнем слое политермического ледника
Get PDFThe thermal regime of the upper layers of any glacier largely determines the thermal structure of its entire thickness. Its formation is influenced by both, external and internal factors and the most important one among them is the snow cover. Playing the role of a heat insulator in winter and preventing the ablation of ice in summer, the snow cover mainly determines the winter storage of cold in the ice, and the temperature at the bottom of the active layer. In 2011–2015, the close relationship between the thickness of snow and temperatures in the upper horizons of ice had been found in the course of researches carried out on the glacier East Grønfjord (Svalbard). Comparison of snow measurement survey data, obtained for different years of the period under investigation, did show that, in every year, the maximum snow accumulation took place within the left branch of the glacier, while the snow thickness within the right branch was comparable to that on the glacier tongue. Thus, observed differences in the snow accumulation cause differences in the temperature structure of the upper layers of the ice. Inter-annual variations of the snow cover thickness indicate that conditions of freezing remain stable overthe greater part of the glacier. Only in the upper reaches of the glacier left branch the great snow accumulation creates conditions unfavorable for freezing. This part of the glacier is more inert to changes in climate, and due to that a wide area of warm ice still remains at the bottom of the glacier.Представлены данные термометрии скважин на политермическом леднике Восточный Грёнфьорд в конце периода аккумуляции 2013/14 г. Запас холода во льду ледника тесно связан с толщиной снежного покрова. Для ледника характерна устойчивая асимметрия снегонакопления между ветвями, вызывающая неоднородности температурного поля активного слоя. Ледник термически неоднороден: правая ветвь и язык ледника стабильно выхолаживаются, а левая ветвь за счёт большего снегонакопления промерзает медленнее и в её основании ещё сохраняется тёплый лёд
Известному советскому и казахстанскому гляциологу Константину Григорьевичу Макаревичу 25 января 2017 г. исполнилось 95 лет
Get PDF.К.Г. Макаревич родился 25 января 1922 г. в г. Шадринск Курганской области (Россия). Он участвовал в Великой Отечественной войне 1941–1945 гг. и был удостоен двух орденов Красной Звезды, двух орденов Отечественной войны и многих медалей. После войны окончил географический факультет Уральского государственного университета имени М. Горького в Свердловске и в 1952 г. был направлен в аспирантуру Академии наук Казахской ССР, которую успешно закончил в 1956 г. и защитил кандидатскую диссертацию под руководством Н.Н. Пальгова
Изменение климата и размеров ледников в горах Кузнецкого Алатау в 1975-2015 гг.
Get PDFClimate change in the Kuznetsky Alatau (Western Siberia) highlands (on its eastern macroslope) was investigated using data of the Nenasthaya weather station collected for the last 40 years. It is the only highland station functioning now in the area under investigation. Basing on the correlation between average daily temperatures for the period 1974–1975, obtained at the Nenasthaya station and meteopost Karatash (located in front of the Kartash Glacier), we believe that the Nenasthaya one is enough representative for analysis of the climate in this glacio-nival zone. Linear trends for mean summer temperatures and annual precipitation sums had been calculated. Analysis of the linear trends has indicated that for the last 40 years the average summer temperature in the Kuznetsky Alatau increased by 1.3 °C with the growth rate of 0.33 °C/10 years. Average annual precipitation has also increased by 320 mm (the growth rate is 80 mm/10 years). These climatic changes did cause corresponding reactions of glaciers in the area. The analysis of current changes in the glacio-nival systems demonstrated that different morphological types of glaciers reacted to the current climate change in different ways. Small slope glaciers and perennial snowfields degraded significantly (70–90% of the area had melted) due to the temperature rise. Some ones transformed into the category of perennial snowfields. Large corrie glaciers located on the leeward slopes of wide watersheds in the negative relief forms did only slight retreat. They mostly continue to exist because the amount of accumulated snow mass increased and, thus, compensated the ablation. The largest decrease in the area of glaciers took place in 2002–2004. Since 2005, large glaciers stopped to degrade and were in relative equilibrium with climate. This article presents estimation of dynamics of the Kuznetsky Alatau glaciers since their cataloging made in the 1980-s, and it contains the detailed information about fluctuation of areas of glaciers Karatash № 56, Cherno-Iyussky № 83, and Tsentralny № 87 in 1975–2015 received from data obtained in field measurements and remote sensing methods. The area increase of some individual glaciers since 2005 is shown. An effort to compare dynamics of main climatic factors having impact on the glaciations with the dynamics of the glacier areas had been made.Статья посвящена анализу изменений климата и нивально-гляциальных систем гор Кузнецкого Алатау (Западная Сибирь) за последние 40 лет. Установлен факт увеличения площади отдельных крупных ледников района. Колебания ледников рассматриваются на фоне трендов изменения средних летних температур воздуха и годового количества осадков по метеостанции Ненастная – единственной высокогорной станции в горах Кузнецкого Алатау
Влияние Атлантики на потепление и сокращение морского ледяного покрова в Арктике
Get PDFInfluence of anomalies of the sea surface temperature (SST) in low latitudes of the North Atlantic on the sea ice cover and the near-surface air temperature in the marine Arctic is discussed in the article. Data on the SST in the Atlantic Ocean from the HadISST dataset, climatic series of the water temperature at the section along the Kola meridian together with mean monthly data on the sea ice extent and the air surface temperature in the Maritime Arctic and the Northern hemisphere were analyzed. Multivariate cross-correlation analysis was applied to determine the maximum correlation coefficients between the SST anomalies, climate characteristics and their corresponding delays within time limits of 33 to 38 months. Existence of intimate link had been found between changes of the Atlantic SST in low latitudes and the sea ice extent in the Arctic with correlation coefficients up to 0.90 and delays up to 3 years. A mechanism of formation of the remote influence of low-latitude SST anomalies on the sea ice anomalies in the Arctic Ocean is proposed. The interpretation of this mechanism includes into consideration the interaction between atmospheric and oceanic circulation modes.Установлена связь между аномалиями температуры поверхности океана в приэкваториальной области Северной Атлантики и аномалиями приповерхностной температуры воздуха и площадью морского льда в Северном Ледовитом океане в разные месяцы. Механизм формирования удалённого влияния аномалий температуры поверхности океана на аномалии в Северном Ледовитом океане связан с системой взаимодействий между циркуляцией атмосферы и океана, переносящих тепло в высокие широты
Особенности распределения снежного покрова на побережье озера Байкал
Get PDFThe paper presents results of studies of the dynamics of snow cover characteristics along the Lake Baikal coast for the years 1961–2009. Statistical characteristics of the following elements: snow depth, duration of the period with snow cover, dates of onset and destruction of snow cover, were calculated from data of local meteorological stations. Mean annual snow depth in the region varies from 1 to 36 cm, while the maximal ten-day values changes from 12 cm on the West coast up to 60–86 cm on the East coast. Mean duration of the snow cover in the Baikal region is 138 days, while on the East coast it lasts for 178 days, and on the West one – for 126 days. Long-term trends of the snow cover characteristics are mostly statistically insignificant. However, at the end of the above period dates of the snow cover onset and destruction has been shifted to earlier dates. The inter-annual variability of these dates reaches 30 days. A linear dependence of the snow cover depth on the mean air temperature and the precipitation amount for the cold season was revealed with correlation coefficients from 0.31 to 0.89.Анализ многолетних изменений высоты снежного покрова, дат его образования и разрушения за 1961–2009 гг. по данным метеорологических станций позволил установить различия указанных характеристик на восточном и западном побережьях озера Байкал. В конце исследуемого периода отмечено смещение дат установления и разрушения снежного покрова к более ранним срокам при отсутствии статистически значимых трендов. Установлена линейная зависимость высоты снежного покрова от средней температуры воздуха за холодный период и сумм атмосферных осадков