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Penerapan Metode Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline untuk Memahami Dinamika Kemiskinan di Indonesia
Get PDFAbstrak
Kemiskinan masih menjadi tantangan besar bagi pembangunan di negara berkembang, khususnya Indonesia. Berbagai faktor seperti pendidikan, kesehatan dan pendapatan masyarakat diketahui mempengaruhi tingkat kemiskinan, namun hubungan antar faktor tidak sederhana. Studi ini dilakukan untuk memprediksi Presentase Penduduk Miskin Di Indonesia berdasarkan faktor sosial ekonomi menggunakan metode Mulitivariate Adaptive Regression Spline yang mampu menangkap hubungan nonlinear dan interaksi antar variabel. Penelitian menggunakan Data dan Informasi Kemiskinan Kab/Kota di Indonesia Tahun 2023 dari publikasi Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) yang telah melalui proses Pre-processing data. Model terbaik dibangun dari 0.8 data training dan 0.2 data testing dengan kombinasi BF=26, MI=3, MO=1 dengan Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) terkecil sebesar 0.160211 dan dari 13 variabel prediktor yang diteliti menunjukkan bahwa variabel Persentase Pengeluaran Rata-Rata per Orang untuk Makanan Kategori Miskin dan Tidak Miskin (X5) dan variabel Persentase Pengeluaran Rata-Rata per Orang untuk Makanan Kategori Miskin dan Tidak Miskin (X6) yang mempunyai skor tertinggi sebesar 100% untuk menurunkan nilai GCV model dan menurunkan Residual Sum of Squares (RSS) pada model. Selain itu, model MARS mampu menjelaskan variasi tingkat kemiskinan dengan nilai R-squared sebesar 83,7% yang mengidentifikasikan prediksi cukup akurat.
Kata kunci : Kemiskinan, MARS, GCV
Abstract
Poverty remains a major challenge for development in developing countries, especially Indonesia. Various factors such as education, health and income are known to affect the poverty rate, but the relationship between factors is not simple. This study aims to predict the percentage of poor people in Indonesia based on socioeconomic factors using the Mulitivariate Adaptive Regression Spline method which is able to capture nonlinear relationships and interactions between variables. The research uses data and information on poverty in districts / cities in Indonesia in 2023 obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) which has gone through a process of cleaning, standardisation and handling outliers. The best model was built from 0.8 training data and 0.2 testing data with a combination of BF=26, MI=3, MO=1 with the smallest Generalised Cross Validation (GCV) of 0.160211 and of the 13 predictor variables studied showed that the variable Percentage of Average Expenditure per Person on Food for Poor and Non-Poor Categories (X5) and the variable Percentage of Average Expenditure per Person on Food for Poor and Non-Poor Categories (X6) which had the highest score of 100% to reduce the GCV value of the model and reduce the Residual Sum of Squares (RSS) in the model. In addition, the MARS model is able to explain the variation in poverty rates with an R-squared value of 83.7%, which identifies a fairly accurate prediction.
Keywords: Poverty, MARS, GC
SISTEM INFORMASI MANAJEMEN PELAYANAN DI SERVICE CENTER BERBASIS WEB DENGAN NOTIFIKASI WHATSAPP
Get PDFPT. Hartono Istana Teknologi adalah perusahaan elektronik asal Indonesia dengan merek dagang Polytron, yang didirikan oleh saudara Hartono, yaitu Robert Budi Hartono dan Michael Bambang Hartono sebagai pemilik grup Djarum. Di bawah naungan Polytron terdapat PT. Sarana Kencana Mulya yang bergerak di bidang distribusi dan layanan. Polytron percaya bahwa melalui inovasi teknologi saat ini, Polytron akan menemukan solusi yang dibutuhkan oleh masyarakat dengan tujuan mengembangkan teknologi inovatif melalui proses untuk menciptakan pasar baru dan terus menjadikan Polytron sebagai pemimpin digital yang terpercaya. Untuk meningkatkan kepercayaan dan kepuasan konsumen, penting untuk menekankan kualitas layanan yang diberikan dan masa garansi yang menarik minat konsumen. Adapun metode pengumpulan data yang digunakan peneliti adalah wawancara, observasi, dan studi literatur. Selain itu, permasalahan yang dialami konsumen adalah ketidakmampuan untuk mengetahui informasi mengenai proses layanan ketika barang sedang diperbaiki. Hasil analisis sistem akan dijelaskan menggunakan Unified Modeling Language (UML). Metode pengembangan sistem yang digunakan adalah metode waterfall dan implementasinya pada website menggunakan bahasa pemrograman PHP dan database MySQL
VISORY BODY IN TACKLING MONEY POLITICS IN THE 2024 SERANG DISTRICT REGIONAL HEAD ELECTION
Get PDFThis Money Politics exists because of the obsession of leaders elected by the people to have government authority. Because it is contrary to the principles of the election itself, money politics damages democracy. So, this study will look at how Bawaslu\u27s efforts to prevent and handle money politics in the 2024 Regional Head Elections. The urgency of this study is the threat and impact of money politics on society which can damage democracy and integration in general elections. The research method used is normative juridical which is taken through legal library materials. The results of this study are the role and strategy of Bawaslu in preventing money politics, by educating the public about the threats and impacts of money politics, and the conditions of money politics in the Regional Head Elections in Serang Regency. Thus, Bawaslu has an obligation to take preventive measures so that money politics does not occur in the next general election
Optimization of Oyster Mushroom Business Development Through SWOT and QSPM
Get PDFThis research was conducted at CV. Asa Agro Corporation, Cianjur, West Java, Indonesia, is a region with optimal climatic conditions for oyster mushroom cultivation. Despite the sector\u27s potential, challenges such as product quality instability and fluctuating productivity hinder business growth. This research employs an integrated SWOT analysis strengthened by IFAS, EFAS matrices, and Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) to systematically identify critical internal and external factors and formulate prioritized strategies. Unlike previous studies that predominantly rely on descriptive SWOT frameworks, this research integrates quantitative weightings and empirical prioritization through QSPM, thereby addressing a significant methodological gap in mushroom agribusiness decision-support literature and enhancing objectivity in managerial strategy formulation. Data were gathered through structured questionnaires, field observations, and secondary reports from 30 purposively selected respondents. This analysis revealed strong internal factors, including strategic location and superior spawn quality (IFAS score 2.95). In addition, there are several significant external opportunities, such as increasing consumer health awareness and government support (EFAS score 2.78). The positive relationship between time and production (r = 0.95; p < 0.05) suggests a trend of steady expansion from 2020 to 2024. This quantitative integration allows for measurable improvement in strategic decision-making precision, with QSPM scores providing clear prioritization metrics (SO strategy: 3.2; WO: 3.1; ST: 3.0; WT: 2.6). This study offers SO strategies with a QSPM score of 3.2 by utilizing strategic priorities and quantitative approaches to optimize long-term sustainable competitive advantages in the oyster mushroom agricultural sector
PERANCANGAN APLIKASI ABSENSI KARYAWAN DI PT GALUNGGUNG ACCES SOLUTIONS BERBASIS WEB
Get PDFAbstrak - Absensi karyawan merupakan bagian penting dalam menjaga kedisiplinan dan menunjang kinerja perusahaan. Di PT Galunggung Access Solutions, perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang layanan internet di wilayah Tasikmalaya, sistem absensi masih dilakukan secara manual dan menimbulkan berbagai kendala. Beberapa di antaranya adalah sulitnya memverifikasi lokasi kehadiran, potensi manipulasi data absensi, serta lamanya proses rekapitulasi yang menghambat efisiensi kerja bagian HRD. Berdasarkan permasalahan tersebut, penelitian ini merancang sebuah aplikasi absensi karyawan berbasis web dengan menggunakan Framework Laravel dan metode pengembangan perangkat lunak Waterfall. Laravel dipilih karena kemampuannya dalam membangun aplikasi secara cepat, terstruktur, dan fleksibel. Sedangkan metode Waterfall dinilai tepat karena mendukung proses pengembangan yang terorganisir melalui tahapan berurutan, yaitu analisis, perancangan, implementasi, pengujian, dan pemeliharaan. Sistem ini juga dilengkapi fitur menarik yang berguna untuk memastikan kehadiran secara nyata dan meminimalisir kecurangan. Aplikasi hasil pengembangan ini diharapkan dapat membantu HRD dalam memantau kehadiran karyawan secara lebih efektif, serta menjadi solusi jangka panjang yang dapat diadopsi oleh perusahaan lain dengan kebutuhan serupa.
Kata Kunci: Aplikasi Berbasis Web, Absensi Karyawan, Laravel, Metode Waterfa
Transformasi Kelembagaan Birokrasi Provinisi Banten: Scenario dan Roadmap Pemerintah Daerah Provinsi Banten
Get PDFTransformasi kelembagaan menjadi prasyarat penting dalam menjawab tantangan kompleks pemerintahan daerah di era digital dan tata kelola kolaboratif. Artikel ini bertujuan mengkaji secara konseptual skenario dan roadmap transformasi kelembagaan pemerintahan daerah berbasis analisis multidimensi—struktural, kultural, teknologi, dan kapabilitas jaringan. Dengan pendekatan kualitatif dan studi literatur dari sumber-sumber ilmiah nasional dan internasional, artikel ini menawarkan kerangka kerja strategis serta kontribusi terhadap penguatan kapasitas kelembagaan sektor publik. Temuan utama menunjukkan bahwa keberhasilan transformasi membutuhkan pendekatan adaptif, partisipatif, dan integratif, serta sinergi antara reformasi digital dan desain ulang kelembagaan. Artikel ini memberikan kontribusi terhadap ilmu administrasi publik dengan memperkaya teori transformasi kelembagaan serta praktik desain kebijakan kelembagaan yang berkelanjutan.Transformasi kelembagaan menjadi prasyarat penting dalam menjawab tantangan kompleks pemerintahan daerah di era digital dan tata kelola kolaboratif. Artikel ini bertujuan mengkaji secara konseptual skenario dan roadmap transformasi kelembagaan pemerintahan daerah berbasis analisis multidimensi—struktural, kultural, teknologi, dan kapabilitas jaringan. Dengan pendekatan kualitatif dan studi literatur dari sumber-sumber ilmiah nasional dan internasional, artikel ini menawarkan kerangka kerja strategis serta kontribusi terhadap penguatan kapasitas kelembagaan sektor publik. Temuan utama menunjukkan bahwa keberhasilan transformasi membutuhkan pendekatan adaptif, partisipatif, dan integratif, serta sinergi antara reformasi digital dan desain ulang kelembagaan. Artikel ini memberikan kontribusi terhadap ilmu administrasi publik dengan memperkaya teori transformasi kelembagaan serta praktik desain kebijakan kelembagaan yang berkelanjutan
The Power of Stories: Enhancing Awareness of Online Gambling Risks Among Young Students in Rangkasbitung, Banten
Get PDFThe objective of this community service activity is to increase awareness of the risks of internet gambling among elementary school students through storytelling. The activity was held at SDIT Insantama Rangkasbitung, using an interactive performance, for students from grades 1 up to 6 to understand the dangers and risks of internet gambling. The storytelling sessions were conducted by using the children\u27s fairy tale "Rabbit and Wolf" to communicate moral values and messages to young students effectively. Educational games and quizzes also complemented the activity to enhance the story and reinforce important concepts. A visual campaign was initiated by giving out posters, providing a continuous reminder to say no to online gambling. Results showed a significant increase in the average knowledge score from 2.69 to 3.29 on a 4-point scale, which means 81,76% of the students showed positive change and were aware of the matter. From observation, the result also indicated improved refusal behavior and stronger moral reasoning. These findings demonstrated that storytelling can be a proper and measurable strategy to enhance children\u27s digital literacy and risk awareness. Storytelling offers a practical model for teachers, parents, and people in general, addressing online gambling prevention for younger children
Empowering Vocational Students in Digital Entrepreneurship via Dropshipping-Print on Demand Integration
Get PDFTechnological disruption necessitates a paradigm shift from conventional to digital entrepreneurship, positioning vocational students as crucial agents in the creative economy. This service program aimed to empower these students by integrating dropshipping and print-on-demand business models, focusing on minimizing capital risk while maximizing creativity. Employing a hybrid methodology of Project Based Learning and Participatory Action Research, the initiative engaged 50 vocational Marketing students through a structured process: (1) preparatory needs assessment and SWOT analysis, (2) hybrid workshop implementation, (3) three month intensive mentoring via WhatsApp and Zoom, and (4) a comprehensive evaluation using pre-test/post-test measures, business portfolio analysis, and satisfaction surveys. The results demonstrated a significant 78% increase in mastery of digital entrepreneurship concepts. Operationally, 54% of participants successfully launched and operated online stores, while 60% produced original print-on-demand designs, achieving a 72% market acceptance rate; overall entrepreneurial confidence surged by 95%. Statistical analysis revealed the most substantial gains in understanding the e-commerce ecosystem (85%) and digital marketing strategies (76%). Although obstacles such as limited internet access (affecting 20% of participants) and mid-program motivation fluctuations were encountered, these were effectively addressed through adaptive mentoring. The program conclusively proves the efficacy of a practical, project-based approach in bridging the competency gap between vocational education and Industry 4.0 demands, with recommendations for developing e-commerce-based teaching factories and multi-stakeholder collaborations to ensure sustainability
Crisis Of Legal Certainty In Criminal Enforcement Against The Practice Of Repacking Food Products
Get PDFThe practice of repackaging food products is increasingly prevalent in Indonesia, especially in the small-business sector and in the trade of foodstuffs in small packaging without labels. This practice poses serious problems for consumer protection and food safety. Although Law No. 18 of 2012 on food has imposed a strict prohibition on opening food packaging for repackaging, this provision is subject to a normative contradiction under Article 84paragraph (2), which provides exceptions for food that is “commonly repackaged,” without clear definitions or technical limitations. This ambiguity creates a crisis of legal certainty that hinders criminal enforcement under Article 139. This study uses a socio-legal research approach, combining normative juridical analysis with empirical data from interviews with BPOM officials and field observations. The results showed that the vagueness of the norm is the main factor preventing authorities from carrying out repressive measures, thereby hindering the effective operation of criminal law enforcement. This condition has an impact on weak consumer protection, distortion of business competition, disruption of the national food security system, and potential violations of state obligations to protect the right to public Health. This study confirms the need for strict implementation regulations, repackaging technical guidelines, and strengthening BPOM capacity and consumer literacy to ensure the effectiveness of law enforcement and food safety in Indonesia
Implementasi Nilai Tri Hita Karana Dalam Pembentukan Karakter Anak Melalui Kegiatan Mejejaitan Sebagai Strategi Pengembangan Ekonomi Kreatif Berbasis Budaya di Dusun Sangiang, Banjar Indra Giri
Get PDFPenelitian ini bertujuan menerapkan nilai-nilai Tri Hita Karana dalam pembentukan karakter anak melalui kegiatan mejejaitan sebagai strategi pengembangan ekonomi kreatif berbasis budaya di Dusun Sangiang, Banjar Indra Giri. Program KKN dilaksanakan dengan metode partisipatoris edukatif dan pendekatan kualitatif deskriptif, yang mencakup tiga tahap: pemberian materi tentang filosofi Tri Hita Karana, praktik langsung pembuatan jejahitan, dan pemanfaatan hasil karya untuk pengembangan ekonomi kreatif. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan peningkatan kreativitas, kedisiplinan, tanggung jawab, serta pemahaman anak-anak terhadap nilai spiritual, sosial, dan ekologis yang terkandung dalam mejejaitan. Selain itu, kegiatan ini juga mendukung pelestarian budaya lokal sekaligus membuka peluang usaha kreatif dengan memanfaatkan jejahitan sebagai produk bernilai ekonomi. Program KKN ini terbukti berkontribusi dalam menanamkan nilai religius, etika, dan kepedulian lingkungan pada anak, sekaligus memperkuat identitas budaya masyarakat Hindu dan mendorong pemberdayaan ekonomi berbasis tradisi secara berkelanjutan. Dengan demikian, kegiatan mejejaitan tidak hanya menjadi media pembentukan karakter, tetapi juga sarana strategis dalam menjaga budaya lokal dan mengembangkan kreativitas generasi muda sesuai tuntutan zaman