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EDITORIAL INTRODUCTION
Get PDFThis special edition contains papers from the conference proceedings of the University of Buckingham Centre for Extractive Energy Studies (UBCEES) as well as contributions from members of the Advisory Board
Is Gambling Contagious? An Analysis of Electronic Gambling Machine Clustering in Germany
No full textThere are sizeable differences in the Electronic Gambling Machine (EGM) supply among German regions. Furthermore, the EGM supply concentrates in certain regions which results in gambling hot spots. Interestingly the spatial clustering of EGM supply is still observed when we control for agglomeration effects caused by population. This leads to the question why the EGM supply concentrates in some regions and remains low in others. We argue that the concentration of supply can be mostly explained by the socioeconomic characteristics of these regions. This paper makes three central contributions to the location based gambling research. First, it visualizes the absolute and relative supply of EGMs in German communities and highlights the spatial clustering of high and low EGM density regions. Second, it implements socioeconomic and geographical control variables for a more distinct description of regional differences. Third, it employs spatial econometric modelling to quantify and explain the occurrence of EGM hot spots. For our analysis we use census and EGM market data. The main finding implies, that there is a clear clustering of the EGM supply across regions at first, but when considering the socioeconomic characteristics / deprivation of the regions, most of the clustering effect is erased. The model explains most of the clustering effect which appears to exist only when there is no slender consideration of the socioeconomic differences across regions. This result supports the hypothesis that high gambling activity in one region does not affect the gambling activity in neighboring regions
Rake policies of for-profit and non-profit online poker sites: A case study
No full textHow does governance affect the operative behaviour of gambling sites? We conjecture that differences in governance primarily cause pricing differences among gambling sites. This paper presents an analysis of the purpose and implications of rake policy differences between privately owned for-profit and state-owned non-profit poker web sites. Specifically, the paper comprises a comparative case study analysis of Svenska Spel Poker, owned by the Swedish state, and the commercial site PokerStars. The analysis focuses on the range of different types of single table Sit and Go tournaments offered at each site. We observe two main differences between the sites with respect to rake. First, PokerStars uses a rather complex formula to determine the rake percentage based on variables such as tournament speed, stakes, and size while Svenska Spel uses the same rake percentage for all Sit and Go tournaments regardless of speed and stakes but with a 50 percent discount if the tournament is played heads-up. Second, PokerStars charges less rake than Svenska Spel except for the lowest stakes. We discuss the effects and purpose of these rake policy differences from four different perspectives: 1) the individual player, 2) the player collective, 3) the poker market, and 4) society. The overall conclusion is that these different perspectives cause conflicting opinions on the 'goodness' of the sites. Our study also highlights the difficulties experienced by a state-owned gambling site in balancing social and corporate goals
Developing a Profile of Lotto Players in Korea
No full textGiven the potential impact lottery gambling has on individual lives, especially on low-income earners and adolescents, extensive studies have been conducted to develop a comprehensive profile of lottery participants in North America, Europe and to a lesser extent, East Asia. However, studies on the characteristics of Korean lottery participants are missing in the literature even though in 2013, Korea’s Lotto lottery sales were around US$3.035 billion and ranked 22nd in terms of worldwide total lottery sales. Using Lotto lottery sales and corresponding socio-demographic data, the current study developed a profile of lottery participants in Korea. The findings indicate that the typical lottery consumer in Korea would be an individual whose income falls in the middle to below middle-income brackets and has at most a high school degree. In addition, both widows and widowers are major participants in lottery gambling. However, married, higher-income, and college-educated individuals are not active participants in the Lotto. The above profile is similar to that of lottery players around the globe. However, there are two differences between the profiles of Korean players and those from the rest of the world. First, males around the globe (except Thailand) are more active lottery participants than females. However, in Korea, there does not appear to be a significant difference in participation rates by gender. Second, people in their mid-20s to mid-60s have the highest participation rate around the globe. Korean society, in contrast, has no one age group that dominates lottery sales.
OFFSHORE OIL POLLUTION DAMAGE: IN PURSUIT OF A UNIFORM INTERNATIONAL CIVIL LIABILITY REGIME
Get PDFA significant amount of marine oil pollution is vessel-source with another being non-vessel-source originating from offshore oil platform operations. The world has witnessed a number of oil spill disasters since the 1950s including the Deepwater Horizon incident in the United States, the Montara Wellhead Platform in Australia and the continuing oil spill incidents in the Niger Delta, Nigeria. Technological advances mean that offshore operators now venture further out from coastlines to explore for, and exploit hydrocarbon reserves, thus increasing the crude oil output, and also the possibility of oil pollution incidents from offshore platforms. The International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution 1969 and the International Convention on the Establishment of an International Fund for Oil Pollution Damage 1971 were developed under the leadership of the International Maritime Organization in response to the increasing incidents of vessel-source oil pollution of the marine environment. Since the entry into force of these Conventions the membership has increased and the incidents of vessel-source oil pollution reduced. Efforts made by the Comité Maritime International (CMI), as early as in 1977, to develop a uniform civil liability convention for claims arising from offshore operations did not come to fruition, and very little progress has been made in finding a solution. Currently, there is no uniform international civil liability regime in place for oil pollution compensation claims arising for damages caused by offshore operations. This article explores the reasons behind the lack of a coherent legal framework to process civil liability claims arising from offshore oil spill incidents, especially when a comprehensive international regulation exists to govern vessel-source and other related forms of marine oil pollution. It argues that the lack of leadership to find a solution is proving to be highly damaging and that there is a strong case and an urgent need to establish a uniform international offshore oil spill liability regime. The article looks at existing regimes, both regional and national, as a way forward to develop an international regime for oil pollution compensation for damages arising from offshore activities
College football and the Vegas line: Deconstruction and arbitrage
No full textWe examine the Vegas line in college football games by employing two separate regression models to deconstruct the Vegas line and actual margin of victory for 4,590 unique contests from the 2005 through 2011 seasons. A comparison of these two models suggests which factors represent a true relationship with the margin of victory and which reflect bettor biases. An additional model of the margin of victory illustrates which factors the Vegas line systematically misrepresents. The authors find a number of factors inadequately priced in the Vegas line that help explain variation in the actual margin of victory. Using a holdout dataset comprised of the 2012 and 2013 seasons we identify the magnitude of any mispricing and opportunities for arbitrage. We exploit this mispricing to develop and evaluate profitable betting strategies. A strategy betting on the top 35% mispriced games yields 55% correct picks and a 2.7% APY. A second strategy in which only the top 8% of mispriced games are bet yields 59% correct picks and a 5.9% APY
The Mathematics of Baccarat Edge Sorting
No full textAbstractEdge sorting is a form of advantage play that involves a pre-deal sorting of cards based on imperfections or markings on the backs of playing cards. When successfully executed, the edge sorting advantage play in baccarat allows player to know, prior to making bets, whether each of the first four cards to be played will be “big” or “small” cards. With this knowledge, the player can then make the appropriate bet that will maximize expected return and in so doing enjoy a significant advantage. The definition of big and small cards can vary; the particular big-small classification scheme employed will determine the exact advantage obtained. The purpose of this paper is to identify the player’s optimal big-small classification and associated advantage for the following four situations: (1) big-small knowledge of the first four cards when using only the main bets—Player, Banker, and Tie; (2) big-small knowledge of the first four cards when Player and Banker Pair bets are also available; (3) big-small knowledge of the first card only when using only the main bets; and (4) big-small knowledge of the first card only when Player and Banker Pair bets are also available
Analysis of Large Mega Millions Rollovers
No full textFrom May 17, 2002 to December 30, 2014, there were 1,318 Mega Millions drawings and 153 were winning drawings. In 148 out of 153 winning drawings, there was no winner(s) in the first drawing and the jackpot prize was rolled over and added to the next drawing. Since the Mega Millions does not have a rollover limit, this process continues until there is an eventual winning ticket. If there are no winners over a month, the jackpot prize will approach 100 million, significantly larger additional cash flows into the lottery. Based on the analysis of 29 large Mega Millions winning drawings (jackpot prize ≥ 0.20 per capita) being transferred from Instant Games to Mega Millions appears to take place. Third, zip-codes with a higher average family income or residents with more years of schooling experience a significantly higher demand for Mega Millions tickets. In addition, as the percentage of white or Asian-Americans in an area increase, the demand for Mega Millions increases by a significant amount. Lastly, as the jackpot prize gets larger, lottery players from all income levels spend more money on Mega Millions, but over 80% of the additional money comes from consumers belonging to the upper-middle or higher income brackets.
DECOMMISSIONING IN THE UNITED KINGDOM CONTINENTAL SHELF: DECOMMISSIONING SECURITY DISPUTES
Get PDFThis article focuses on whether the decrease in the oil price will result in insufficient security to cover escalating offshore decommissioning liabilities. The annual decommissioning security process requires the calculation of an amount of security in anticipation of decommissioning. This process takes place under decommissioning security agreements, whose aim is to provide mutual protection in case one party falls into financial difficulty. The funds are held in a trust until the decommissioning is completed. This article notes that disputes have begun to arise as to whether sufficient security has already been - or ought to now be - placed in trust. This article also considers the preferred dispute resolution mechanism for such disputes, namely expert determination
EVALUATING THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF AN ENSEMBLE MODEL FOR ECONOMIC SUCCESS OF INDIAN MOVIES
No full textThe Indian motion picture industry has experienced phenomenal growth during the last few decades and plays an important role in emerging economy of India. This paper integrates three analytical models in order to address the intriguing problem of revenue prediction of movies in Indian film industry. The paper attempts to investigate the determinants leading to the success of indigenous movies in Indian context. Ensemble model has been constructed by integrating the three analytical models (Neural Network, Classification and Regression Tree and Robust Regression) using linear optimization approach. Further, a four-way comparative analysis of these three models along with Ensemble model has been carried out. The predictive power of the models has been evaluated using four performance metrics namely root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and large prediction error (LPE). Analyzing novel and original data of 120 Indian movies released during the period August’06-October’15, this paper inspects the nitty-gritties of Indian film industry and seeks to explain the nuances. The study revealed that factors like hype generated on web by a movie, screens on which the movie is released, rating garnered by movie and its genre are the most influential variables in deciding the box-office performance of a movie. Further we observed, that the neural network model closely competes with ensemble model in terms of predictive accuracy. The ensemble model considerably reduces the predictive errors and yields better results on two of the performance metrics