The University of Buckingham Press Journals
Not a member yet
1038 research outputs found
Sort by
Is there such a thing as a safe bet ?
No full textThis paper is an attempt to set out a betting strategy appropriate to events with several possible final outcomes which are a) unambiguously defined and b) likely to show fluctuations in the respective probabilities as the event unfolds. It is then shown that, by placing bets of appropriate magnitude and at appropriate times, such as to take advantage of changing odds, it is possible to secure a certain profit, generally in advance of the outcome becoming known, and irrespective of which of the possible outcomes finally materialises. Furthermore, the bettor should enjoy the reassurance of an improving Net Expected Value (NEV), as the event progresses.The procedure, which may be viewed as a multiple hedging one, is suited to in running betting on individual match events, as well as on protracted seasonal events (such as a league championship in football or other sport). The principal requirement is that there be a reasonable expectation of a large amount of alternation in the relative prospects of at least two contenders. The procedure is outlined in general terms and illustrated with reference to real life football matches and league competitions from the 2015/6 season. It is seen to be profitable under the specified conditions. Apparent advantages in betting on draws and on favourites are discussed.
Late Money and Betting Market Efficiency: Evidence from Australia
No full text This paper examines the empirical importance of late money on market efficiency in horse race gambling. Our inquiry into the effect of late money on parimutuel pools uses data from Australian thoroughbred horse races over the entire 2006 racing season and includes every race at all thoroughbred tracks. This amounts to 14,854 races with an average of 10.37 starters per race. The evidence overwhelmingly supports the hypotheses that late money is smart money and late money improves market efficiency
Gambling with Philadelphia: Examining the Impacts of Commercial Casinos in a large American city.
No full textCasino gaming has emerged in the United States in a variety of new locations as a source of economic development. In 2010 commercial casino gambling expanded into a major United States city, when a casino opened in Philadelphia. The city currently has one open casino and a second proposed casino, this, along with three other casinos in the metropolitan area, makes Philadelphia an important case study to examine the impacts of casino gaming in a major urban area in the United States. Through interviews and media/policy analysis, the casinos interaction with the local community during the planning process, and since the one casino has opened are analyzed. It is revealed that a variety of stakeholders were involved in the casino location process, and the community has been impacted by the casino in a variety of areas including economic effects, a community benefits agreement, crime, potential gambling addiction and gentrification.
The university of sydneySocial-Economic Impacts of Sports Betting on Ugandan Youth. The case of Mbale Youth .
No full textSports betting activities, particularly among youth, is increasing rapidly in Ugandan. The aim of this study was to determine the motivation for sports betting among Ugandan youth, and the social economic impact of this form of gambling. In a cross sectional quantitative research design, a questionnaire data was obtained from a sample of 181 youth attending betting houses in the Mbale district. Results indicated that that most youths were motivated by the desire to win money. Findings also revealed that Ugandan youth socially and economically benefited from sports betting. The study concludes by recommending that even if findings do not show the negative impacts of gambling on youth, there is need for stricter laws to avert any future negative implications
Bankroll management in Sit and go poker tournaments
No full textThis study focuses on Sit and go poker tournaments, where a player with an advantage over her opponents needs to manage her bankroll properly. The study applies the Kelly criterion to games that have several outcomes, where the organizer charges a rake. The premise is that an advantage itself is not enough for a poker player to play at any stakes, because risking too large a fraction of the bankroll will result in a negative expected growth rate, even though the game itself is characterized by a positive expected value. Accordingly, this study uses a formula-based approach to address the challenge of identifying games where the player’s current bankroll has the highest expected growth rate, while also considering differences in the rake
Casinos in Asia: legalizing gambling in the Chinese province of Hainan, the ideological obstacle
No full textThe successful liberalization of the gaming industry in Macau has incited other Asian destinations to reconsider their position on gambling. For the last ten years, new gaming destinations have emerged in Asia. China has still not yet legalized this industry, but since last year, new policies authorizing sport lotteries have been introduced in the province of Hainan. The objective of this measure is to diversify tourism in that province and make Hainan more attractive for visitors. In case of success, this policy could be expanded to other gaming activities and casinos would be legalized in Hainan, as advocated by the provincial government; but legalizing casinos in Hainan may face several obstacles.This paper aims at showing that the success of Asian casino destinations mainly results from China’s ban on gambling. This study will focus on the history of gambling in China, and the reasons for the continuation of gambling prohibition in China. The author will argue that the ideological opposition plays a similar role as religious movements in Western countries. The paper will be illustrated by a literature review analyzing previous examples in other parts of the world.
Chalk, Seeds, and Entropy in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
No full textABSTRACT Based on the results of the 63 games played in each of the 32 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments held from 1985 through 2016 it is shown that the information content of the seeding of the 64 teams invited to participate as to the seed of the eventual winner, varies from year to year, but not in any consistent fashion. The paper thus concludes that the Selection Committee’s seeding process has not improved over time, notwithstanding the availability of more sophisticated metrics for evaluating the teams’ regular-season performance. The fact that a 1-seed wins some 60 percent of the time and a top-three-seed wins 88 percent of the time only reflects the fact that the committee is not seeding the teams at random, but rather is exercising a modicum of judgment, aided and abetted by the tournament’s design.
COMBATING THE BRIBERY OF FOREIGN PUBLIC OFFICIALS AND THE “ART OF PERSUASION”: THE CASE OF ALSTOM AND THE ENERGY SECTOR
Get PDFThis article explores some of the developing strategies designed to tackle the supply side of transnational corruption through the “Art of Persuasion” i.e. how to “persuade” commercial organisations, no matter how powerful, to commit to good governance and integrity in their business. In doing so, it uses Alstom SA (hereinafter Alstom) as a case study. The article is divided into three parts. Part 1 explores some of “persuasive” techniques designed to combat the bribery of foreign public officials and to enhance corporate good governance and integrity. Part 2 explores some of the lessons and challenges from the Alstom case whilst Part 3 contains a Conclusion which re-visits the “Art of Persuasion”
The numerics of Premium Bonds
No full textPremium Bonds sold by the UK National Savings and Investments (NS&I) agency are the possibly most popular example of lottery bonds. Premium Bonds holders renounce interest payments but instead participate in a lottery which distributes the equivalent of aggregate interest payments among them. While the random mechanism used in the lottery is well-documented the details of how to determine the probability distribution of a single bond holder's lottery prizes seem to be less well-known. We observe that the lottery prizes distribution is a multivariate hypergeometric distribution and discuss how to exactly calculate its probability masses as well as how to approximate the distribution by means of the Panjer recursion and Fourier transforms. We find that there are good reasons to prefer the approximations based on Panjer recursionor Fourier transforms to exact calculation of the lottery prize value distribution
Testing of Long Memory in Indian Stock Market using ARFIMA model
No full textThis paper examines the presence of long memory property and market cycles in the Indian stock market by using daily closing price of Nifty Index from May 2009 to April 2015. The study has used Unit Root Test, Autocorrelation Test, Rescaled Range (R/S) statistics and ARFIMA Models to determine the long memory property in Indian stock market. The result of the study shows that Indian stock market exhibits a high degree of positive long-term persistence. The results of ARFIMA model also indicates that stock price index exhibits strong evidence of long memory and contradicts the evidence against efficient market hypothesis. This implies that future stock price can be predicted. The study concludes that there is an arbitrage opportunities available for international investors and they can make abnormal profits by investing in Indian stock market