FACCE MACSUR Reports (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security)
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Modelling the impact of rural frontier migration on tropical deforestation.
No full textA major driver of tropical deforestation is rural frontier migration. In this paper an attempt is made to formally describe the human-environment interactions that are manifested in a forested system experiencing a large influx of rural migrants. The Guraferda district in South-West Ethiopia was selected as an exemplary case-study. On the basis of an extensive field surveys in several villages, the relation different social groups in the area were identified: the native population, recent immigrants and investors. For each of these groups their livelihood and their relation with the forest resources was analyzed on the basis of interviews and mapped via remote sensing. To formalize the identified human-environment interactions, an agent-based model was developed. The model simulates the decision-making process concerning deforestation of the identified agent types. The native population consists of shifting cultivators, while the new immigrants are technologically more advanced and are sedentary farmers. For each grid cell of the landscape, utilities for the agent types are calculated. High potential yields increase utility, while proneness to diseases, high population density and the presence of forest decrease utility. Learning behavior is implemented, allowing native agents to learn from migrants and vice versa, thus increasing productivity. Agricultural investors are added to the model as a passive agent type that can grab land from the previous two groups. Results show that immigration started with the forced resettlements in 1985, after which voluntary migrants followed in great number thereby pushing the native population to new frontiers. Ongoing land grabbing by external investors is accelerating this process
Impacts of climate change on Scottish beef farms – integrating crop production and economy in a meta-model.
No full textThis paper explores the impacts of climate change on Scottish beef farms and identify possible adaptation measures available to the farmers that optimises farm outputs under changed climate. It uses an integrated platform of a bio-physical model (SPACSYS) and an economic farm level model (ScotFarm). The SPACSYS model projected physical changes in bio mass of the major crops and grass in Scotland under four scenarios; a baseline scenario (with current climatic conditions) and 3 climate change scenarios (two extremes and one mid-way climate projections under A1B SRES emission scenario). The outputs of this model, specifically, the projected crop and grass yields as well as field time availability (for grazing and machinery use on farm) under all 4 scenarios were fed into ScotFarm to determine financial implication of those changes under each of the climate scenario. This economic model used farm level data taken from Farm Accountancy Survey, 2015 which consisted of 105 specialist beef farms across the country. The model results under the climate change scenarios were compared with the results under the baseline scenario to determine the projected physical, financial impacts of climate change scenario of beef farms. The model also examined the responses of beef farmers which were considered as optimal farm adaptations to maximise farm profits under climate change scenarios
Modelling responses of forages to climate change with a focus on nutritive value
Full text linkEuropean livestock agriculture is extraordinarily diverse, and so are the challenges it faces. This diversity has contributed to the development of a fragmented set of research communities. As a result, livestock research is often under-represented at policy level, despite its high relevance for the environment and food security.Understanding livestock systems and how they can sustainably adapt to global change requires inputs across research areas, including grasslands, nutrition, health, welfare and ecology. It also requires experimental researchers, modellers and stakeholders to work closely together.Networks and capacity building structures are vital to enable livestock research to meet the challenges of climate change. They need to maintain shared resources and provide non-competitive arenas to share and synthesize results for policy support. Long term strategic investment is needed to support such structures. Their leadership requires very different skills to those effective in scientific project coordination
Open data journal as a publishing and data sharing mechanism
Full text linkThis deliverable lays out the work as done as part of MACSUR CropM on data publishing, with the focus on improving data sharing and discovery and have shared data curation for future use. As part of the first phase MACSUR, The Open Data Journal for Agricultural Research (www.odjar.org) was started and documented in Deliverable C2.2 as part of Crop M. Odjar.org mainly focuses on long term data archival and citation of data sets, as input and outputs to the modelling work, as part of MACSUR, lead by Wageningen URThis deliverable is a short update on the process of creating such a data journal by demonstrating a set of articles published through the journal, some of which are based on MACSUR results, as well as related networks. The deliverable does not further explain what the journal is, as this is part of the previous deliverable.
Does the effect of the choice of crops has a stronger influence on regional water resources than those of climate variability
No full textClimate-neutralizing managed landscapes in Sweden.
No full textTo limit dangerous climate change, Sweden has signed a law to contribute zero net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere. Land use is an important source of Sweden's emissions, but it can also be managed to take up more CO2 in growing vegetation and increase carbon storage in soils, thus reducing climate warming. We will present results from our project, modeling the factors controlling the GHG balance of farms and forests to support Sweden achieving its climate goals in an environmentally, socially, and economically optimal way.We will use the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (Olin et al., 2015) to identify different combinations of land use (e.g., forest vs. agriculture) and land management (e.g., agricultural intensity) that could achieve this multi-dimensional aim. The identified land-use and land-management combinations will be evaluated relative to the current landscape for their ability to sequester carbon and nitrogen, produce food and timber, and preserve cultural landscape values. We will also evaluate the consequences for land managers' incomes and societal welfare.Different ecosystem services are measured in different units and thus trade-offs between them cannot be evaluated directly, all services will be valued for their marginal contributions to societal welfare using market and non-market valuation techniques. We expect to show significant trade-offs among the climate goal and other ecosystem services; hence societal welfare can only be maximized by identifying optimal trade-offs among ecosystem services given the climate goal.We will present this novel framework that combines quantification and valuation of multiple ecosystem services to identify optimal climate pathways for Sweden and discuss the potential to extend this approach for Europe
XC8 Extreme events – Final report
Full text linkFollowing a MACSUR Workshop a joint working paper preliminary titled "More than a change in crop production: metrics and approaches to understand the impacts of extreme events on food security" is now in an advanced stage. A conference paper based on an M.Sc. thesis by Christoph Buschmann, titled "A model-based economic assessment of future climate variability impacts on global agricultural markets" has been presented and the International Conference of Agricultural Economists, 2015. We are working on a journal publication at the moment. Based on a B.Sc. thesis by Patrick Jeetze, we have submitted an abstract and held a presentation at the GlobalFood Symposium 2017, 28-29 April 2017 at Georg-August-University of Goettingen, Germany. Title: "Implications of future climate variability on food security: A model-based assessment of climate-induced crop price volatility impacts" We are currently working on a journal publication on this. Finally, we contributed one section to MACSUR's Research Gap Report (H0.1-D)
Influence of environmental climate conditions on animal welfare criteria of lactating dairy cows
No full textbjective
Naturally ventilated barns (NVB) are affected by climate-related changes. The influence of environmental climate on animal welfare of lactating dairy cows was investigated.
Material and Methods
This study was carried out at a NVB in Germany (Holstein Friesian cows; 1st to 8th lactation; daily milk yield 38.2 ± 9.4 kg). The relative humidity (RH,%) and ambient temperature (T,⁰C) were measured in 5-min intervals with 8 EasyLog USB 2+ sensors (Lascar Electronics Inc., USA) and in 10-min intervals with 2 LogTags (HAXO-8, LogTag Recorders, New Zealand). The Temperature Humidity Index (THI) was calculated according to NRC (1971). Respiration rate (RR, visually counted hourly in 30 sec.), rumination activity (RA, recording with microphone in 2h-periods) and activity behavior (AB, IceTag3DTM-Pedometer at hind leg recording body posture every sec.) are used to characterize heat stress.
Results
RR: Cow-related factors (body posture, milk yield performances) and THI influenced the RR of lactating dairy cows. The values of RR in lying cows were greater than in standing cows. An increase of RR was observed per additional produced kg milk per day.
RA: RA followed feeding times, but it was affected by environmental climate conditions, too. Cows spent more time on rumination during the late evening and the night, when THI was the lowest. The rumination time decreased strongest with increasing THI from 1600 to 2000h.
AB: The duration of lying per day decreased by increasing ambient temperature and the duration of standing rose, but the duration of moving remained constant. The strongest changes in behavior could be recorded during the afternoon
Paper on model responses to selected adverse weather conditions
Full text linkBased on the Trnka et al. (2015) study that indicated that heat and drought will be the most important stress factors for most of the European what area the further effort focused on these two extremes. The crop model HERMES has been tested for its ability to replicate correctly drought stress, heat stress and combination of both stresses. While data on the drought stress were available for both field and growth chambers, heat stress and its combination with heat stress was available only for the growth chambers. The modified version of the HERMES crop model was developed by Dr. Kersebaum and is being currently prepared for the journal paper publication.
Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gases mitigation measures in the Andean agriculture: an economic and environmental perspective
No full textThe study was carried out in the Andean region of Ecuador, because this is the largest agricultural region of the country and may illustrate the Andean farming systems of all South America. We focused on potato crop because it is one of the main sources of employment and income in regional rural sector and because it is a staple food in the diet.We estimated the mitigation potential of measures and their associated costs, assessing environmental and economic approach. Our methodological approach is summarized below:(1) We made a list initial of GHG mitigation practices in agricultural soils based on literature review and contributions from the research team. Practices not applicable to crop were eliminated.(2) The abatement potential of practices was evaluated by information taken from publications and studies in regions with climatic conditions similar to the area study.(3) We estimated the marginal abatement cost (US·farm-1·yr-1).(4) We selected practices more cost-effective through marginal abatement cost curves (MACC)In the last decade there has been a development of policies and programs in Ecuador aiming to increase household food security, to reduce poverty through improved livelihoods. However, a significant number of voluntary national mitigation actions are being developed. These results were used to contribute to the knowledge of mitigation options at a regional level and to provide information about climate change and agricultural policies in the Andean region. Finally, the study provides a methodological framework that can be easily applied to other crops