FACCE MACSUR Reports (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security)
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Regional adaptation of crop rotations as key factor to improve sustainability - integrative assessment of agricultural, ecological and economic impacts
No full textRecent impact assessment add to growing evidence that the environmental effects of cropping interact with the regional landscape. Not only the environmental risks are unevenly distributed regionally but also the agricultural feasibility and economic attractivity of cropping options. Farmers act divergently depending on the respective soil quality of their land. Moreover counter measures to reduce negative impacts of single cropping practices have a varying efficiency at different regions. Thus sustainability of cropping systems call for both integrative assessments over different kinds of indicators and for considering their regionality through regional adaptation.Our paper presents a methodology for a comparative, data driven impact analysis which was developed in the project EVA. Plot experiments on up to nine different crop rotations build the core of the research. The assessment on the ecological effects of various cropping options within the EVA project was based on empirical data gained from plot trials at ten different experimental sites across Germany. The ecological effects have been assessed by using different well established agro-ecosystems models. Data elevation at the experimental plots followed an unified, standardized protocol (methods hand book). Based on the experimental trial data an indicator set comprising 5 agricultural, 17 different single ecological and 4 economic indicators as well as 4 indicators addressing different aspects of resource efficiency have been calculated.Our results address the main process drivers and their interactions. The present work demonstrates that the design of CRs and regional adopted management practices can be an appropriate steering option improving sustainability in land use management
How to achieve higher yield levels in North Savo – means and challenges indicated by farmers.
Full text linkSustainable intensification of Nordic farming systems is seen as an effective adaptation and mitigation strategy. Two stakeholder workshops targeting sustainable farming under changing climate were arranged in North Savo, Finland in 2014 and 2016 with farmers and other regional agricultural stakeholder participants. Workshop outcomes are presented and discussed.The most important changes in the operational environment of farms in North Savo during past decades, identified by the participants, were related to agricultural policies and subsidy systems. They were seen strongly supporting extensification and undermining motivation for yield improvements. Long-term trends in weather patterns were not taken up by farmers. The most important obstacles for higher yields mentioned were soil fertility, particularly in relation to soil compaction and insufficient drainage, but also low motivation for improvements and lack of know-how.Workshop participants identified improving soil fertility with drainage and liming, improved crop rotations, better sowing techniques including overseeding, careful selection of cultivars and forage grass mixtures as important means for higher crop yields. Suggested solutions for improving both crop yields and farm economy were to 1) increase collaboration among farmers, 2) focus only on the most productive fields and 3) actively develop farming skills.The workshops provided important perspectives on future farming development, as well as needed developments of model-based integrated assessments which must reliably reflect the impacts of different management actions on yields, environment and farm economy. The challenge is also to correctly describe the impacts of increasing collaboration and cost sharing among farmers
Comparison of site sensitivity of crop models using spatially variable field data from Precision Agriculture
Full text linkSite conditions and soil properties have a strong influence on impacts of climate change on crop production. Vulnerability of crop production to changing climate conditions is highly determined by the ability of the site to buffer periods of adverse climatic situations like water scarcity or excessive rainfall. Therefore, the capability of models to reflect crop responses and water and nutrient dynamics under different site conditions is essential to assess climate impact even on a regional scale. To test and improve sensitivity of models to various site properties such as soil variability and hydrological boundary conditions, spatial variable data sets from precision farming of two fields in Germany and Italy were provided to modellers. For the German 20 ha field soil and management data for 60 grid points for 3 years (2 years wheat, 1 year triticale) were provided. For the Italian field (12 ha) information for 100 grid points were available for three growing seasons of durum wheat. Modellers were asked to run their models using a) the model specific procedure to estimate soil hydraulic properties from texture using their standard procedure and use in step b) fixed values for field capacity and wilting point derived from soil taxonomy. Only the phenology and crop yield of one grid point provided for a basic calibration. In step c) information for all grid points of the first year (yield, soil water and mineral N content for Germany, yield, biomass and LAI for Italy) were provided. First results of five out of twelve participating models are compared against measured state variables analysing their site specific response and consistency across crop and soil variables.(Main text to be published in a peer-reviewed journal
Opportunities for soil carbon sequestration under old and new grazed grassland in the Netherlands.
No full textSoil carbon sequestration under agricultural soils is mentioned by the IPCC as a mitigation method to withdraw carbon-dioxide from the climate system of the earth. Grasslands could contribute to the withdrawal. In the Netherlands some grasslands are historically an important source of fodder for ruminants. Besides these relatively old soils the Netherlands has also relatively new soils, that are reclaimed from the sea. In a phosphorus (P) field trial that started in 1997, two old sandy soils, with an estimated agricultural use of 800 years, and a young clay soil, reclaimed in the 50s and in use from the 70s of last century, were part of the trial. In the trial the grassland use was a mixed grazed and mown system, as is usual on grazed farms in the Netherlands. Organic manure was annually applied, at a legally allowed dosage of balanced P fertilisation. On the two sandy soils the trial was running for 16 and 17 years, and on the young marine clay for 20 years and is still running. Soil organic carbon (SOC) was measured in this field trial, in 0-5, 5-10, 10-20, and 20-30 cm below surface.On the old sandy soils the SOC did not change over the trial period. On one sandy site, were the botanical composition was changed to a more clover-based sward, the division over the layers changed slightly: the SOC in the top soil decreased and increased in the two lower layers. On the other sandy site the SOC did not change. In the young marine clay, however, the SOC increased in all layers except on a field were no organic manure was applied and was not grazed.Assumed is that the old grasslands were saturated with SOC and that the clay soil could still sequester more carbon. The saturation level of this site is not known yet
Tools to support farmer decision – making in arable cropping systems.
No full textClimate change is requiring the farmers re-evaluate their farming system. There is a need for the arable sector to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases, and to adapt their systems to the changing climate. To assist farmers in the decision making process, tools have developed that will assists farmers in understanding the cause of these emissions and therefore assist in identifying the potential for mitigation. Tools have also been developed with the purpose of understanding the role of crop choice on nutrient supply and organic matter status. Efficient use of nutrients and maintaining or enhancing the soil carbon stocks will have benefits in terms of mitigation and for the long-term sustainability of the farming system. The farmer friendly tools that have been assessed for their ability to aid decision-making under climate change are namely 1) AgRECalc©, a farm-level carbon-footprinting tool, 2) Soil Explorer, a field-level tool for assessing carbon and nitrogen losses from fertilisation, and 3) ROTOR, a crop rotation planning and evaluation tool.The tools need be easy for the farmer to use and therefore the input data needs to be relatively easily obtainable, and the output needs to be in an accessible format. ROTOR is used to evaluate alternative cropping strategies and the implications of these strategies for nitrogen and soil organic carbon balance, Soil Explorer assesses the effects of these rotations on the soil carbon balance and the losses of nitrogen from the system, and AgRECalc is used to determine the effects of these changes on the emissions from the farming system. Thus in terms of mitigations, the tools can identify the effect of changes in management that affect the cropping system's impact on emissions, changes in soil carbon and nutrient cycling. The tools have been used to assess the effect of current management of the key attributes assessed by the models for the three organics arable sites, which are situated in Scotland, The Netherlands and Germany
Modelling the impact of climate change on livestock productivity at the farm-scale: An inventory of LiveM outcomes
Full text linkThe report presented here provides an inventory of reports and conference papers produced by the partners of the livestock and grassland modelling theme (LiveM) of the Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR) knowledge hub. The findings presented illustrate the diverse nature of the multidisciplinary LiveM research community, and provide a reference source for those seeking to identify and pull out farm-level modelling outputs from the work of MACSUR and its partners. The survey of farm-scale outputs from LiveM revealed the interdependent, dual role of a knowledge hub: to increase the capacity of modelling to meet stakeholder and societal needs under climate change, and to apply that increased capacity to provide new understanding and solutions at the policy and (the focus here) farm scale. While capacity building work across disciplines is time-consuming, difficult, and to a large extent invisible to stakeholders, such work is vital to ensuring that subsequent scientific outcomes reflect best practice, and integrated expertise. Long term, sustained funding of network-based capacity building activities is highlighted as essential to ensuring that the farm-scale modelling work highlighted here can continue to build on ongoing improvements in model quality, flexibility and stakeholder relevance
Rethinking farm-scale modelling to meet new challenges and possibilities
No full textHistorically, agricultural models have tended to be created, owned and maintained by a single person or research organisation. This modus operandi is often proving fragile, when confronted with budget constraints and staff turnover. Collaborative modelling is proving to be a viable alternative that has numerous advantages; it allows costs to be shared, buffers budget and staff changes in individual organisations, increases quality control of model code and extends the biophysical and management dimensions of model testing. However, collaborative modelling itself presents practical and cultural challenges that must be overcome and also imposes some costs. We here reflect on the experience garnered through the development of two modelling platforms: APSIM and RECORD
Using crop modelling to determine the meteorological conditions to be implemented in an Ecotron facility - Prerequisites to improve the experimental design
No full textAn Ecotron is a facility where ecosystems are confined in experimental chambers, allowing the simultaneous control of environmental conditions and the on-line monitoring of processes. Under the threats of climate change and the pressure of a world growing population, such facilities will be of major importance to study the relations between climate change and agro-ecosystems.As it can quickly become time- and money-consuming, conducting experiments in an Ecotron will force researchers to cautiously select the climate of interest to be generated. They will thus need reliable tools to help them support the decision making process.Here, we present an innovative methodology, supported by the use of crop model, to assist researchers in finding the climatic conditions under which crop services will be impacted.The meteorological datasets among which the choice can be done were generated by the ALARO-0 model (RMI, Belgium) for current and future climatic conditions. Runs were conducted for the historical period 1981-2010, and for two time frames - 2041-70 and 2071-2100 - under two emissions scenarios - RCP 4.5 and 8.5.A crop model (STICS, INRA, FR) was run over the entire database. Crop model outputs were synthesized for the main crop phenological phases, i.e. the juvenile, vegetative and reproductive phases. A particular emphasis was put on agronomical outputs (biomass and grain yield) and crop growth stresses (deficit and excess of water, thermal and nutrient stresses).Using these outputs as selection criteria, a novel multi-criteria approach was designed to retro-select the specific climatic conditions allowing to reach certain outcomes (e.g. yield target) while simultaneously exhibiting given thresholds of stresses for any considered crop stages
Agriculture, climate change and food security – progress and challenges in systems research and integrated assessment and modelling
Full text linkAgriculture, climate change and food security are topics of high societal relevance and have been addressed within the Knowledge Hub MACSUR between 2012 and 2017. Substantial progress has been made in the modelling and assessment for parts of the agri-food system affecting and being affected by climate change with MACSUR. The paper aims to review this progress within the context of international research activities in this field of research and points to key challenges that require attention for future work. MACSUR has developed from its initial focus in the first project phase on thematic research for the improvement of crop, livestock and agricultural economic modelling towards more integrated assessment and modelling approaches including stakeholder interactions in the second phase. Selected highlights of this research are presented. Particular emphasis is given to activities that successfully filled research gaps and advanced understanding of the agri-food system in interaction with climate change. Links to important international research projects such as AgMIP (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project) and cross-benefits of such interactions are pointed out. Reference is also made to the impact and valorisation of MACSUR research as evident from the diverse forms of outputs and impacts in the scientific literature, on other research projects, on policy-making and beyond. Achievements of MACSUR are contrasted with recent developments in other sectors and the society affecting agriculture such as international political agreements (for example the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Climate Conference COP 21 in Paris in 2015), new technologies (for example remote sensing, ICT and robotics), changes in the food retailing sector and the development of the bioeconomy. Emerging challenges for agriculture are highlighted and new research topics are identified. The important role of and demands for integrated assessment and modelling to support this development are determined and conclusions for future activities of MACSUR are drawn
Effects of grassland management on the global carbon cycle.
No full textIn global dynamic vegetation models such as LPJmL, usually management on grassland is represented by rather simple assumptions. These aim e.g. at the inclusion of a harvesting mode that reduces leaf biomass and ensures productivity dependent biomass removal. This management is mostly not ideal, i.e. maximizing harvest (as implemented in LPJmL default) without ensuring livestock feed for the vegetation period or avoiding soil carbon loss. Apart from assessments of the effects of homogeneously distributed managed options, investigations of currently applied management can help to find out which grass harvesting options could be favoured for sustainable intensification of grassland.Using a global dataset of grassland management (Chang et al., 2016, Biogeosciences) in combination with the dataset of the livestock density distribution (Herrero et al., 2013, PNAS), current carbon fluxes and pools on grassland are investigated using LPJmL with grassland management options (Rolinski et al., submitted to GMD). Here, feedbacks of harvesting aboveground grass biomass on productivity (NPP) and soil carbon development are quantified especially for intensively used pasture in Europe