African Population Studies (UAPS) / Etude de la Population Africaine (UEPA)
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African urbanization trends and prospects
Get PDFThe paper aims at analysing and projecting urbanization trends using United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects data, 2007 Revision. A third order polynomial is used to model urban-rural growth difference from 1950 to 2005 country by country. The results of the model are compared to UN projection on urban growth for the period 2010-2050. Using the new model, the African urban population is projected to stagnate around its current level below 40%, with little variations by regions up to 2050, while the UN predicts 62%. The findings suggest that UN projections are excessively high and do not match the level of economic and social development in Afric
Age structural transition in South Africa
Get PDFThis chapter deals with the current age structure and the age structural transition (AST) underway in South Africa. We have used the national Census data for 1996 and 2001 and the Community survey data for 2007. In 2007, 31 percent of the population was enumerated below 15 years of age, 64 percent between 15- 64 and 5.4 percent 65+ implying the early stages of aging process. The median age in 2007 is 24.3 years, increased from 23 years in 1996. The proportion of young dependents is declining whereas that of the economically active and aged populations are increasing. Generally, the Black population appears younger and the Whites older. The other two ethnic groups are placed in the middle. This is, perhaps, a reflection of the differential fertility across the ethnic groups. The proportion of labour force population in 2007 is the highest for Asians & Indians followed by Whites; and the lowest for Blacks. So far as the proportion of the aged is concerned, Whites lead relatively high (12.4 %) as compared to coloured and Black population groups. During 1996-2007, the age structural transition for the total population is only marginal in South Africa. The median age of the total population grew from 23 years to 24.3 years, an increase of 5.6 percent. The female median age grew from 24.5 to 25.2 years, slightly better than that of males. The old age population has increased by 12.5 percent during the same period along with the global trend of female advantage. Again, the labour force population has increased by 5.5 percent. AST is highest for the white population, followed closely by Asians & Indians. This calls for continued higher investments in primary and secondary education, health care service delivery including reproductive health and social security. Again, for a country like South Africa where unemployment is quite high, the enormity of labour force (64%) has to be viewed seriously. Rapid employment generation, especially for the weaker groups, is the key. Further, one fifth (20.4 %) of the population is in the 15-24 years age group which is the target group for tertiary education. The slow process of AST among Black population warrants for preferential resource allocations especially in the areas of reproductive health and employment
Socio-economic status and discrimination against people living with HIV/AIDS in selected local government areas of Lagos state, Nigeria
Get PDFThe main thrust of the study was to explore the correlation between socio-economic status and discrimination among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) and non-infected people in two local government areas (LGAs) of Lagos state: Lagos Mainland, an urban setting, and Epe, a rural one. Multistage and systematic sampling techniques were used in 40 enumeration areas (25 in Lagos Mainland and 15 in Epe) to obtain a sample of 1,611 non-infected respondents and a purposive sample of 80 PLWHA. Interviews and focus group discussions were conducted from September 2005 to April 2006. Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) while hypotheses were tested by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The results showed that many noninfected respondents exhibited discriminatory attitudes in different situations involving potential contacts with the PLWHA. The study also indicated that significant proportions of PLWHA experienced rejection, abandonment, eviction, isolation and alienation within their families and communities. It was revealed that education, place of residence, gender, and marital status were significant predictors of discrimination. Contrary to our argument that women were more vulnerable to discrimination than men, the reverse was the case in this study. Widowed/separated/divorced PLWHA suffered more discrimination than those in other categories of marital status. Empowerment of PLWHA, Intensive mass HIV education and enforcement of national and international legal instruments were recommended among others
Is there a mortality differential by marital status among women in South Africa? A study on a rural sub-district of Mpumalanga Province in the North-East South Africa
Get PDFAbstract Using longitudinal data collected between 1999 and 2006 for Agincourt Demographic Surveillance Area (ADSA), the paper examines the effect of marital status and co-residence on mortality of women aged between 20 and 80. The Cox Proportional Hazard Model is used to investigate the relationship between mortality and marital status, woman’s country of origin, co-residence, and marital duration for married women. The number of months the husband was resident in the ADSA is used as a proxy for co-residence. Divorced/separated and widowed women had a higher probability of dying compared to those who were married. In addition, being married to a migrant partner increased the woman’s probability of dying. Thus the study concludes that marital status and co-residence both affect mortality.Keywords: Marital status; married; previously married; mortalityResumé Utilisant des données longitudinales rassemblées entre 1999 et 2006 pour le Domaine d’Etudes Démographiques d’Agincourt, cet article étudie l’effet de l’état matrimonial et de la co-résidence sur le taux de mortalité des femmes âgées entre 20 et 80 ans. Nous avons utilisé le modèle des risques proportionnels de Cox pour examiner la relation entre la mortalité et l’état matrimoniale, la co-résidence, le pays natal de la femme et la durée du mariage pour les femmes mariées. Le nombre de mois que le mari était résident dans le Domaine d’Etudes Démographiques d’Agincourt est utilisé comme variable de la co-résidence. Les femmes divorcées/séparées ou veuves ont une probabilité de mortalité plus élevée que les femmes mariées. En plus, être marié à un partenaire migrant a augmenté la probabilité de mortalité de la femme. Ainsi l’étude conclut que l’état matrimonial et la co-résidence affectent tous les deux la mortalité
Reversal in childhood mortality trend in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
Get PDFAbstract This study uses pregnancy history information from a demographic surveillance site in rural KwaZulu-Natal, along the eastern coastal board of South Africa, to investigate the mortality levels, trends and selected factors associated with childhood mortality. Life table analysis of the data reveals a reversal of the downward trend in mortality rates over time that began around 1990 in this population. Between 1990 and 2000 infant mortality increased from 43 to 65 per 1000 live births and under-five mortality from 65 to 116 per 1 000 live births which translates into a RR of 1.85 over the 10 year period (p-value <0.001). Maternal HIV prevalence in this area is among the highest in South Africa and rose from 4.2% to 26.0% during this period, making it probable that much of the increase in child deaths is attributable to mother to child transmission of HIV. Negative binomial regression identified the source of water, level of maternal education at the time of the survey and being a recipient of the child support grant as important factors associated with child mortality. However, their joint effect is attenuated by the overwhelming impact of HIV which also appears to have swamped the anticipated health benefit expected from various health care reforms.Keywords: Child mortality; rural South Africa; factors associated with child mortality; HIV prevalence; Demographic Surveillance SiteResume Renversement de tendance du taux de mortalite infantile dans la zone rurale du Kwazulu Natal en Afrique du Sud. Cette étude utilise des informations historiques sur les naissances dans un site rural de surveillance démographique au KwaZulu-Natal sur la cote orientale de l'Afrique du Sud pour evaluer le taux de mortalité et leurs tendances et identifier les facteurs associés à la mortalité infantile. L’analyse des table de vie révèle une inversion de la tendance à la baisse du taux de mortalité entre 1990 et 2000 ., Pendant cette periode, la mortalité infantile a augmenté de 43 à 65 par 1000 naissances et celle des moins de 5 ans de 65 à 116 pour 1 000 naissances, ce qui se traduit par un RR de 1,85 pour la periode etudiee. (p-valeur < 0,001). La prévalence du VIH dans cette region est parmi les plus élevées en Afrique du Sud et a augmenté de 4,2 % à 26,0 % pendant cette période, il est donc probable que l'augmentation des décès d'enfants est en grande partie attribuable à la transmission du VIH de la mere a l’enfant. Une régression binomiale négative a identifie l’acces a léau potable , le niveau d'éducation de la mere au moment de l'enquête et à si la mere est bénéficiaire d’ allocation sociale pour lénfant comme des facteurs importants associés à la mortalité infantile. Cependant leur effet meme combine, est atténué par l'immense impact du VIH qui semble avoir submerge les bénéfices attendus des diverses réformes de la santé.Mot clefs: Mortalite infantile, L’Afrique Du Sud rurale, facteurs associes a la mortalite infantile, prevalence du SIDA, Site de Surveillance Demographique
Excision et comportement sexuel des femmes au Burkina Faso
Get PDFRésumé Au Burkina Faso, environ trois femmes sur cinq en âge de procréer ont subi une mutilation génitale. Au nombre des raisons avancées pour justifier cette pratique, figure le reproche fait aux femmes non excisées d’être frivoles. A partir de données de l’Enquête Démographique et de Santé du Burkina Faso de 2003, nous explorons la question du lien entre statut d’excision et comportement sexuel. Existe-t-il une différence de comportement sexuel selon le statut d’excision des femmes ? Les femmes non excisées auraient-elles un goût plus prononcé pour les relations sexuelles ? A la suite d’une analyse bi-variée où chacune des variables du comportement sexuel est croisée avec le statut d’excision, nous avons utilisé un modèle de régression logistique, binomial puis multinomial pour rendre compte des déterminants de l’expérience sexuelle pré-maritale. Les résultats indiquent que contrairement au discours populaire, les femmes non excisées ne sont ni celles qui ont le plus de partenaires sexuels ni celles qui sont le plus infidèles, ni celles qui ont un goût plus prononcé pour les rapports sexuels. Dans le cas du Burkina Faso, ce sont plutôt les adolescentes excisées qui ont significativement plus de chance de vivre leur première expérience sexuelle avant mariage.Mots clés : Excision; comportement sexuel des femmes; Burkina Fas
Probabilistic population forecasts for Egypt
Get PDFAbstract Considering the importance of population forecast, as a basic tool for a wide range of decision makers and planners, this paper produces probabilistic population forecasts for Egypt during the period starting from 2006 to 2051. It dependsmainly on experts' knowledge and arguments which can help to illustrate the uncertainties associated with future demographic trends. The results show that the total population of Egypt is likely to increase significantly over the coming 20 years, from about 73 million to over 100 million (97.12 and 103.5 million), with 95 percent uncertainty range).Keywords: Fertility; mortality; probabilistic; forecasts; EgyptRésumé Etant donnée l'importance de la prévision démographique, comme outil de base pour un large éventail de décideurs et de planificateurs, ce document présente des projections probabilistes de la population égyptienne de 2006 à 2051. Cellesci se basent principalement sur les connaissances des experts et leurs arguments qui permettent d’illustrer les incertitudes liées aux évolutions démographiques futures. Les résultats montrent que la population totale de l'Egypte est susceptible d'augmenter de manière significative au cours des 20 prochaines années d'environ 73 millions à plus de 100 millions, la marge d’incertitude au seuil de 95% allant de 97,12 à 103,5 millions.Mots clés: fertilité, mortalité, probabiliste , previsions , L'Egypt
Tribute to Professor Elizabeth Annan-Yao
Get PDFFormer Executive Director of the Union for African Population Studies Prof. Elizabeth Annan-Yao became a member of the Union for African Population Studies (UAPS) in 1990. She was elected to serve in the UAPS’ Governing Council from 1996 to 1999. She became the Union’s Executive Director in 2004 until 2008, when she left to become the Executive Director of the “Institut de Formation et de Recherche Démographique” (IFORD) in Cameroon
Model variables of risk elements in sexual behaviour: a comparative analysis of Lagos-based traders
Get PDFThis paper compares sexuality risk variables and the logit models of itinerantly differentiated tradesmen groups in Lagos Nigeria. The study, using survey design, compared the groups’ biosocial characteristics and then their sexuality risk variables in two ways. First, it compared their relative vulnerabilities to sexually transmitted infections, using selected ‘life-time’ and recent sexuality parameters. Second, it examined the degree of similarity between the groups’ sexuality risk models. Findings show significant bio-social contrasts between the two groups. While circulators showed greater multi-partnership risk, the non-circulators exceeded marginally on commercial sexuality. Condom-use risk was undifferentiating. Also, the variables in their respective parsimonious risk models showed minimal contrast. The findings among others underscore the relevance of HIV/AIDS sufferers as campaign persons and canvassed for greater emphasis on family life programmes, given the riskier sexuality disposition of married tradesmen, regardless of circulation status.Résumé Cet article compare les variables de risques de la sexualité avec les modèles de la régression logistique de groupes des commerçants se distinguant par itinéraire à Lagos, Nigéria. Utilisant un plan de sondage, cette étude a comparé leurs traits biosociaux avec leurs variables de risques de la sexualité de deux façons. Premièrement, l’étude a comparé leurs vulnérabilités relatives aux infections transmises sexuellement, utilisant des paramètres de la vie et de la sexualité récemment sélectionnés. Deuxièmement, elle a examiné le degré de similarité entre les modèles des risques de la sexualité des groupes. Cette recherche démontre les contrastes biosociaux importants entre les deux groupes. Si les circulateurs ont montré un grand risque en multipartenariat, les non-circulateurs étaient marginalement excessifs en sexualité commerciale. Le risque d’usage des préservatifs était peu pertinent. Aussi, les variables retenues dans leurs respectifs modèles parsimonieux de risques de la sexualité ont démontré un contraste minimal. Cette recherche souligne la nécessité d’usage des victimes du VHI/SIDA pour la campagne contre la maladie et la pertinence des programmes à l’intention des familles, vu l’inclination des commerçants mariés au sexe risqué, malgré leurs statuts de circulation.Mots clés: Sexuelle, comportement à risque, circulateurs, noncirculateurs, modélisatio
The level and trends of child mortality in South Africa, 1996-2006
Get PDFAbstract The lack of reliable data for child mortality estimation since 1998 has meant that child mortality rates for South Africa have not been updated for almost ten years. This study makes use of the Community Survey data of 2007 and adaptation of the correction to the children ever born/children surviving method suggested by Ward and Zaba (2009) to estimate current rates of infant and child mortality and establishes trends in childhood mortality between 1996 and 2006. The study found that infant mortality rates have been almost constant at around 50 deaths per 1000 live births while under-five mortality rates are found to have increased from just below 70 deaths per 1000 live births in 1996 to around 75 deaths per 1000 live births in 2006.Keywords: Infant mortality; under-five mortality; HIV/AIDS prevalence; Brass Technique; Trussel variant; South Africa.Resume L'absence de données fiables sur l’estimation de la mortalité infantile en Afrique du Sud n'ont pas été mise à jour depuis presque dix ans à partir de 1998. Notre étude a établit les estimations sur les taux de mortalité infantile ainsi que la mortalité des enfants de moins de cinq ans. Notre analyse a utilisé les données de l’Enquête communautaire de 2007, recensement de 2001 et les résultats sur les recherches antérieurs depuis 1996.Les résultats montrent que le taux de mortalité infantile sont restés presque con- stant, environ 50 décès pour 1000 naissances vivantes tandis que pour moins de cinq le taux de mortalité ont augmenté, passant de 70 décès pour 1000 naissances vivants en 1996 à 75 décès pour 1000 naissances vivants en 2006.Mots clés: Mortalité infantile, Mortalité des moins de Cinq ans, Prevalence du VIH/SIDA, Technique de Brass, Variance de Trussel, Afrique du Su