CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Why herd size matters - mitigating the effects of livestock crashes
Get PDFAnalysing the effect of pastoral risk management strategies provides insights into a system of subsistence that have persevered in marginal areas for hundreds to thousands of years and may shed light into the future of around 200 million households in the face of climate change. This study investigated the efficiency of herd accumulation as a buffer strategy by analysing changes in livestock holdings during an environmental crisis in the Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway. We found a positive relationship between: (1) pre- and post-collapse herd size; and (2) pre-collapse herd size and the number of animals lost during the collapse, indicating that herd accumulation is an effective but costly strategy. Policies that fail to incorporate the risk-beneficial aspect of herd accumulation will have a limited effect and may indeed fail entirely. In the context of climate change, official policies that incorporate pastoral risk management strategies may be the only solution for ensuring their continued existence.publishedVersio
Fører elektrifisering av plattformer på norsk sokkel til reduserte CO2-utslepp?
Get PDFI denne rapporten undersøker vi om drift av ei plattform på norsk sokkel via landstraum - elektrifisering - fører til lågare utslepp av CO2 enn tradisjonell drift via gassturbinar på plattforma.
Resultata vil avhenge av om et norsk, nordisk eller europeisk perspektiv blir valt, og av tidshorisonten for analysen. Ein viktig føresetnad er produksjonsmåten til landstraumen. Ein annan viktig føresetnad er bruken av gassen som blir frigjort frå drift av gassturbinar på plattforma, og som heng saman med ulike verknadsgrader når gass blir brukt til energiproduksjon. I tillegg spelar det ei rolle om ein reknar at denne frigjorte gassen og bruken av den kjem som eit tillegg til eksisterande kraftproduksjon, eller om den erstattar eksisterande produksjon, og i så fall kva type produksjon den erstattar.
I eit perspektiv fram til 2030, med straum basert på den nordiske el-miksen og frigjort gass brukt i eit gasskraftverk (med verknadsgrad på 60 %) som vidare erstattar europeisk el-miks, finn vi at elektrifisering reduserer CO2-utsleppa med nesten 90 % samanlikna med om plattforma hadde brukt eigne gassturbinar. I dei fleste andre tilfelle blir CO2-utsleppa redusert ved elektrifisering, men ikkje heilt fjerna. Reduksjonen i CO2-utsleppa er større i 2030 enn 2012 på grunn av at el-miksen over tid blir mindre CO2-intensiv.
Blir frigjort gass brukt i eit kraftvarmeverk med høg verknadsgrad eller til oppvarming av bygningar blir det ein netto nedgang i europeiske CO2-utslepp dersom ein reknar at den produserte krafta erstattar eksisterande produksjon. Skulle denne produserte energien erstatte straum frå eit kolfyrt kraftverk vil det bli ein større netto reduksjon i europeiske CO2-utslepp enn om den erstattar straum frå til dømes den europeiske el-miksen eller eit typisk gasskraftverk.
Dersom straumen til plattforma kjem frå nesten CO2-fri norsk el-miks, og frigjort gass brukt i eit gasskraftverk erstattar europeisk el-miks blir det også ein netto reduksjon i europeiske CO2-utslepp.
Tek vi utgangspunkt i at vi har eit europeisk kvotesystem som minst varer fram til 2030 vil ein eventuell nettoeffekt av elektrifisering på europeiske CO2-utslepp komme igjennom bruk av frigjort gass i anlegg som ikkje er inkludert i kvotesystemet, og som erstattar anna og mindre effektiv energibruk som ikkje er inkludert i kvotesystemet
Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)
Get PDFAs part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996–2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5–3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period.We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2–3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores indicates a strong influence from Western Europe, but the modeled BC increases in that period are consistent with the emission changes in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, South and East Asia. At the Alps site, the simulated BC suggests a strong influence from Europe, which agrees with the Alps ice core observations. At Zuoqiupu on the Tibetan Plateau, models successfully simulate the higher BC concentrations observed during the non-monsoon season compared to the monsoon season but overpredict BC in both seasons. Despite a large divergence in BC deposition at two Antarctic ice core sites, some models with a BC lifetime of less than 7 days are able to capture the observed concentrations. In 2000 relative to 1850, globally and annually averaged BC surface albedo forcing from the offline simulations ranges from 0.014 to 0.019Wm−2 among the ACCMIP models. Comparing offline and online BC albedo forcings computed by some of the same models, we find that the global annual mean can vary by up to a factor of two because of different aerosol models or different BC-snow parameterizations and snow cover. The spatial distributions of the offline BC albedo forcing in 2000 show especially high BC forcing (i.e., over 0.1Wm−2) over Manchuria, Karakoram, and most of the Former USSR. Models predict the highest global annual mean BC forcing in 1980 rather than 2000, mostly driven by the high fossil fuel and biofuel emissions in the Former USSR in 1980.publishedVersio
The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics
Get PDFThe Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of time slice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting composition changes and the Associated radiative forcing. In this overview paper, we introduce the ACCMIP activity, the various simulations performed (with a requested set of 14) and the associated model output. The 16 ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions are responsible for a significant range across models, mostly in the case of ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The modelto- model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results. However, models that are clear outliers are different enough from the other models to significantly affect their simulation of atmospheric chemistry.publishedVersio
Frameworks for Comparing Emissions Associated with Production, Consumption, And International Trade
Get PDFWhile the problem of climate change is being perceived as increasingly urgent, decision-makers struggle to agree on the distribution of responsibility across countries. In particular, representatives from countries hosting emissions-intensive exporting industries have argued that the importers of emissions-intensive goods should bear the responsibility, and ensuing penalties. Indeed, international trade and carbon leakage appear to play an increasingly important role in the carbon emissions debate. However, definitions of quantities describing the embodiment of carbon emissions in internationally traded products, and their measurement, have to be sufficiently robust before being able to underpin global policy. In this paper we critically examine a number of emissions accounting concepts, examine whether the ensuing carbon balances are compatible with monetary trade balances, discuss their different interpretations, and highlight implications for policy. In particular, we compare the emissions embodied in bilateral trade (EEBT) method which considers total trade flows with domestic emission intensities, with the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) method which considers trade only into final consumption with global emission intensities. If consumption-based emissions of different countries were to be compared, we would suggest an MRIO approach because of the global emissions coverage inherent in this method. If trade-adjusted emission inventories were to be compared, we would suggest an EEBT approach due to the consistency with a monetary trade balance.submittedVersio
US presidents and the failure to ratify multilateral environmental agreements
Get PDFWhereas the US President signed the Kyoto Protocol, the failure of the US Congress to ratify it seriously hampered subsequent international climate cooperation. This recent US trend, of signing environmental treaties but failing to ratify them, could thwart attempts to come to a future climate agreement. Two complementary explanations of this trend are proposed. First, the political system of the US has distinct institutional features that make it difficult for presidents to predict whether the Senate will give its advice and consent to multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) and whether Congress will pass the required enabling legislation. Second, elected for a fixed term, US presidents might benefit politically from supporting MEAs even when knowing that legislative support is not forthcoming. Four policy implications are explored, concerning the scope for unilateral presidential action, the potential for bipartisan congressional support, the effectiveness of a treaty without the US, and the prospects for a deep, new climate treaty.submittedVersio
Cooperative Pastoral Production: Reconceptualizing the Relationship between Pastoral Labor and Production
Get PDFA review of the literature concerning nomadic pastoralism reveals a prevalent assumption of a positive effect of labor inputs on pastoral production. However, studies that have tried to quantify the relationship between household labor availability and production are characterized by contradictory results where one reason may be related to the fact that nomadic pastoralists cooperate by sharing and exchanging labor. As a consequence, previous quantitative research may have neglected an important level of social organization. The prevalence of cooperative labor investment among pastoralists may indicate the presence of scale-dependent effects of pastoral labor on production. This article aims at developing a conceptual model illustrating this possibility, where the scale dependent effects of labor inputs are conceptualized as changes in the relationship between the costs and benefits of labor at different levels of social organization.submittedVersio
A credible compliance enforcement system for the climate regime
Get PDFThis is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Climate Policy on 12 Jun 2012, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2012.692206The compliance enforcement system of the Kyoto Protocol provides only weak incentives for Parties to comply with their commitments. For example, the penalties for non-compliant countries are not legally binding, and moreover, there is no second-order punishment for those countries that fail to implement them. Thus, a Party can simply refuse to comply without consequence. The alternative compliance enforcement systems that have been proposed in the literature also face substantial problems. A simple, flexible, potent, and credible compliance enforcement system for a post-Kyoto climate agreement, based on deposits, is proposed here: at ratification, each country deposits a significant amount of money, and continues to do so in the preparation stage each year until the start of the commitment period. At the end of this period, those countries that meet their emissions limitation targets receive a full refund of their deposit, while those that fail to do so forfeit part or all of it. A simplified two-country model of the deposit system and a numerical example of an agreement involving the US, Japan, Russia, and Europe is also provided. If each country’s deposit is no less than its abatement costs, there is a strong incentive for participating countries to avoid noncompliance.submittedVersio
NORADAPT - Community Adaptation and Vulnerability in Norway
Get PDFI NORADAPT har forskere fra CICERO senter for klimaforsking, Vestlandsforsking, Østlandsforsking og Meteorologisk Institutt gjennom tett samarbeid med 8 utvalgte prosjektkommuner gjennomført en studie der målet var at kommunene selv skulle utrede sin sårbarhet overfor klimaendringer og utvikle tilpasningsstrategier i samarbeid med forskergruppen.
Denne rapporten samler klimascenariene til alle prosjektkommunene og tolker de forventede endringene ut fra figurene som er utarbeidet til hver kommune. Rapporten refererer til samfunnsscenariene som ble utviklet som del av prosjektet, beskriver prosjektets fremgang over hele prosjektperioden og oppsummerer hovedfunnene i prosjektet gjennom et sammendrag fra sluttkonferansen på Losby Gods 24-25 oktober 2011.
Prosjektet har vist at kommunene evner å sette klimatilpasning på dagsorden, utnytte vitenskapelig kunnskap og implementere klimatilpasningstiltak, men at dette avhenger av flere faktorer, som kapasitet, kunnskap og engasjement i kommunene, tilgang på relevant kunnskap og virkemidler, og tydelige føringer og oppfølging fra regionale og nasjonale myndighet
Can conditional commitments break the climate change negotiations deadlock?
Get PDFCan a conditional commitment by a major actor (for example, the European Union) induce other major actors (such as the USA, China, India, or Japan) to do more to mitigate global climate change? We analyse this question by first estimating the impact of emission reductions by one of these actors on the mitigation costs of the others and, second, by exploring how domestic politics influence the willingness of the European Union and the USA to contribute. We find that an emission cut by any actor will reduce mitigation costs for all the others and thereby expand the settlement range. These cost reductions seem, however, insufficient to induce significant unilateral policy change. Emissions trading can cut aggregate costs further, but also redistribute wealth. Domestic politics tend to add weight to the concerns of powerful actors that stand to lose from more ambitious mitigation policies.submittedVersio