CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies
Get PDFThis is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Springer Netherlands. The final publication is available at link.springer.com via /https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9558-3Since the Fukushima disaster in Japan in March 2011, safety concerns have escalated and policies toward nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the upward pressure on regional electricity prices from nuclear power phase out in four scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear power industry. We use a global general equilibrium model to calculate regional electricity prices that are matching demand with the constrained power supply after the nuclear power phase out. Nuclear power exit in Germany and Switzerland might increase electricity prices in Europe moderately by 2–3 % early on to 4–5 % by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. In a gradual and comprehensive phase out of plants built before 2011, North America, Europe, and Japan face an upward pressure on electricity prices in the range of 23–28 % towards 2035, representing the incentives for further investments in any kind of electricity.submittedVersio
Climate impacts of short-lived climate forcers versus CO2 from biodiesel: A case of the EU on-road sector
Get PDFBiofuels are proposed to play an important role in several mitigation strategies to meet future CO2 emission targets for the transport sector but remain controversial due to significant uncertainties in net impacts on environment, society, and climate. A switch to biofuels can also affect short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which provide significant contributions to the net climate impact of transportation. We quantify the radiative forcing (RF) and global-mean temperature response over time to EU on-road fossil diesel SLCFs and the impact of 20% (B20) and 100% (B100) replacement of fossil diesel by biodiesel. SLCFs are compared to impacts of on-road CO2 using different approaches from existing literature to account for biodiesel CO2. Given the best estimates for changes in emissions when replacing fossil diesel with biodiesel, the net positive RF from EU on-road fossil diesel SLCFs of 3.4 mW/m2 is reduced by 15% and 80% in B20 and B100, respectively. Over time the warming of SLCFs is likely small compared to biodiesel CO2 impacts. However, SLCFs may be relatively more important for the total warming than in the fossil fuel case if biodiesel from feedstock with very short rotation periods and low land-use-change impacts replaces a high fraction of fossil diesel.submittedVersio
Fastighets AB Förvaltaren
No full textCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Real Estate, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Not shadedpublishedVersio
Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus
Get PDFThe discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes over the past four decades (1971–2010) in comparison to the recent 15 years (1996–2010). We consider the coldest night and warmest day in a year in the observational dataset HadEX2 and in the current generation of global climate models (CMIP5). In general, the observed trends fall within the simulated range of trends, with better consistency for the longer period. Spatial trend patterns differ for the warm and cold extremes, with the warm extremes showing continuous positive trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models. This regional inconsistency between models and observations might be a key to understanding the recent hiatus in global mean temperature warming.publishedVersio
The socioeconomic drivers of China's primary PM_2.5 emissions
Get PDFPrimary PM2.5 emissions contributed significantly to poor air quality in China. We present an interdisciplinary study to measure the magnitudes of socioeconomic factors in driving primary PM2.5 emission changes in China between 1997–2010, by using a regional emission inventory as input into an environmentally extended input–output framework and applying structural decomposition analysis. Our results show that China's significant efficiency gains fully offset emissions growth triggered by economic growth and other drivers. Capital formation is the largest final demand category in contributing annual PM2.5 emissions, but the associated emission level is steadily declining. Exports is the only final demand category that drives emission growth between 1997–2010. The production of exports led to emissions of 638 thousand tonnes of PM2.5, half of the EU27 annual total, and six times that of Germany. Embodied emissions in Chinese exports are largely driven by consumption in OECD countries.publishedVersio
Ontario Province
No full textCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Municipal Government, Issuer type: Local Government, Shading: Not shadedpublishedVersio
The development and deployment of low-carbon energy technologies: The role of economic interests and cultural worldviews on public support
No full textLarge-scale deployment of low-carbon energy technologies is crucial to mitigating climate change, and public support is an important barrier to policies and projects that facilitate deployment. This paper provides insights to the origins of public opposition that can impede the adoption of low-carbon technologies by investigating how perceptions are shaped by local economic interests and individual cultural worldviews. The research considers both carbon capture and storage and wind energy technologies because they differ in maturity, economic impact and resource base. Further, for each technology, the research examines support for two types of policies: deployment in local community and public funding for research and development. Results indicate the influence of economic interests and cultural worldviews is policy specific. Individual cultural worldviews do not affect support for the deployment of technology, but they do significantly influence a person׳s support for publicly funded research and development. Conversely, local economic interests have a significant role in determining support for deployment, while they do not affect support for research and development.acceptedVersio
Nasjonale drivkrefter i USAs klimapolitikk
Get PDFDa Obama overtok som president i 2009, var ett av hovedmålene å styrke amerikansk klimapolitikk. Fem år senere er målet fortsatt ikke blitt realisert. For å forklare denne manglende måloppnåelsen undersøker vi tre forhold: Først analyserer vi koalisjonsbyggingsstrategiene som ble brukt i Kongressen for å bygge bro over tradisjonelle konfliktlinjer i amerikansk klimapolitikk, og finner at det var nær umulig for senatsledelsen å bygge kompromisser som kunne mobilisere nok støttespillere for en klimalov. Deretter undersøker vi hvordan tre begivenheter påvirket debatten mellom lovgiverne og forsterket konfliktlinjene: Etableringen av «Tea Party»-bevegelsen, «Deepwater Horizon»-ulykken i Mexicogulfen samt finanskrisens påvirkning på folks holdninger til klimaproblemet. For det tredje undersøker vi hvilke implikasjoner Obama-administrasjonens klimapolitikk har for utsiktene til amerikansk deltakelse i en internasjonal klimaavtale. Amerikansk deltakelse i internasjonalt samarbeid er sterkt avhengig av politikken som føres på nasjonalt nivå, og vi finner at de dype konfliktene rundt klimapolitikken i Kongressen betyr at det er svært lite sannsynlig at USA vil slutte seg til en internasjonal klimaavtale i overskuelig framtid.publishedVersionsubmittedVersio
Linking the emissions trading schemes of Europe and China - Combining climate and energy policy instruments
Get PDFBoth Europe and China have announced targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable energy development. To achieve their emissions targets, Europe has introduced emissions trading scheme (ETS) since 2005 and China has planned to establish a national ETS in 2015. We assess the impact of a joint Europe-China ETS when both climate and energy policy instruments are simulated in a multiregional general equilibrium model. Our results show that a joint ETS markedly increases total carbon emissions from fossil fuels even though global mitigation costs are reduced. Moreover, a joint ETS helps China achieve its renewable energy target, but for Europe, it works opposite. While the renewable energy target does not help Europe achieve additional abatement, the renewable energy target in China reduces mitigation costs and emissions, and increases renewable energy consumption and sales of carbon allowances. Financial transfer through a joint ETS remains marginal compared to China’s demand for renewable energy subsidies. We conclude that as long as an absolute emissions cap is missing in China, a joint ETS is not attractive for mitigation and China’s renewable energy target can reduce emissions.submittedVersio
Bergenshalvøens Kommunale Kraftselskap (BKK)
No full textCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Energy, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Not shadedpublishedVersio