CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Nasjonale drivkrefter i USAs klimapolitikk
Get PDFDa Obama overtok som president i 2009, var ett av hovedmålene å styrke amerikansk klimapolitikk. Fem år senere er målet fortsatt ikke blitt realisert. For å forklare denne manglende måloppnåelsen undersøker vi tre forhold: Først analyserer vi koalisjonsbyggingsstrategiene som ble brukt i Kongressen for å bygge bro over tradisjonelle konfliktlinjer i amerikansk klimapolitikk, og finner at det var nær umulig for senatsledelsen å bygge kompromisser som kunne mobilisere nok støttespillere for en klimalov. Deretter undersøker vi hvordan tre begivenheter påvirket debatten mellom lovgiverne og forsterket konfliktlinjene: Etableringen av «Tea Party»-bevegelsen, «Deepwater Horizon»-ulykken i Mexicogulfen samt finanskrisens påvirkning på folks holdninger til klimaproblemet. For det tredje undersøker vi hvilke implikasjoner Obama-administrasjonens klimapolitikk har for utsiktene til amerikansk deltakelse i en internasjonal klimaavtale. Amerikansk deltakelse i internasjonalt samarbeid er sterkt avhengig av politikken som føres på nasjonalt nivå, og vi finner at de dype konfliktene rundt klimapolitikken i Kongressen betyr at det er svært lite sannsynlig at USA vil slutte seg til en internasjonal klimaavtale i overskuelig framtid.publishedVersio
Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions
Get PDFAny limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 °C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.submittedVersio
Transitions in pathways of human development and carbon emissions
Get PDFCountries are known to follow diverse pathways of life expectancy and carbon emissions, but little is known about factors driving these dynamics. In this letter we estimate the cross-sectional economic, demographic and geographic drivers of consumption-based carbon emissions. Using clustering techniques, countries are grouped according to their drivers, and analysed with respect to a criteria of one tonne of carbon emissions per capita and a life expectancy over 70 years (Goldemberg's Corner). Five clusters of countries are identified with distinct drivers and highly differentiated outcomes of life expectancy and carbon emissions. Representatives from four clusters intersect within Goldemberg's Corner, suggesting diverse combinations of drivers may still lead to sustainable outcomes, presenting many countries with an opportunity to follow a pathway towards low-carbon human development. By contrast, within Goldemberg's Corner, there are no countries from the core, wealthy consuming nations. These results reaffirm the need to address economic inequalities within international agreements for climate mitigation, but acknowledge plausible and accessible examples of low-carbon human development for countries that share similar underlying drivers of carbon emissions. In addition, we note differences in drivers between models of territorial and consumption-based carbon emissions, and discuss interesting exceptions to the drivers-based cluster analysis.publishedVersio
Betting on negative emissions
Get PDFBioenergy with carbon capture and storage could be used to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, its credibility as a climate change mitigation option is unproven and its widespread deployment in climate stabilization scenarios might become a dangerous distraction.submittedVersio
Electricity consumption: should there be a limit? Implications of people’s attitudes for the forming of sustainable energy policies
Get PDFThe aim of this paper is to examine people’s attitudes towards electricity and electricity consumption within the Norwegian market context. The empirical material is based on 18 in-depth interviews and eight focus group discussions carried out in two Norwegian towns. We draw on theories which assume that different types of logics motivate and guide behaviour. The results show that people’s views on electricity consumption vary widely. About half of the sample thinks of electricity as a commodity, following the market logic embedded in the Norwegian electricity system. According to “consumerists”, as long as people pay for consumption, they are entitled to use as much electricity as they want. The other half of our sample, referred to as “citizens”, questions the purely market-based system. They raise the question of fairness and think there is a need for a norm for appropriate consumption. Both groups regard Norwegian hydropower as common property belonging to the Norwegian population, and both groups question the existing market-based system for exchange of power with other countries. We use the results to discuss some of the policy implications in terms of how energy savings could be achieved.publishedVersio
Forty-seven years of weekly atmospheric black carbon measurements in the Finnish Arctic: Decrease in black carbon with declining emissions
Get PDF© 2014 American Geophysical Union. All Rights ReservedConcentrations of atmospheric black carbon, [BC], were determined from filter samples collected weekly at Kevo, Finland (69°45′N, 27°02′E), from 1964 to 2010 using optical and thermal optical methods. The data provide the longest record of directly measured [BC] in the Arctic. The mean winter, spring, summer, and autumn [BC] based on the entire data set were 339, 199, 127, and 213 ng m−3, respectively. Annual mean [BC] decreased from ~300 in ~1970 to 82 ng m−3 in 2010. [BC] data sets from other Arctic sites show similar trends, but concentrations at Kevo are generally higher. From ~1970 to 2010 the [BC] decreased by ~1.8% yr−1. However, [BC] did not decrease monotonically. Instead, cyclical peaks occurred around 1976–1977, 1985–1987, and 1999. During such periods, nickel concentrations were well correlated with [BC]. This suggests that emissions from extensive ore smelting on the Kola Peninsula were significant contributors of particulate matter observed at Kevo. Simulations of [BC] at Kevo using the OsloCTM3 model using different emission inventories and meteorological data sets were performed. Modeled concentrations were lower than observed by a factor of 4. The results indicated that circulation changes can explain year to year variability, but the downward trend in the observations is mostly explained by emissions. Emission inventories in Europe, Russia, and the former Soviet Union are poorly constrained and appear to need revision in order to match observed trends in BC atmospheric concentrations.publishedVersio
Sustainable development: Our Common Future revisited
Get PDFNo clear definition of sustainable development exists to guide politicians in solving challenges at the global or regional levels. Rather, the concept's use has increasingly reflected socially desirable attributes of solutions to local- and project-level problems, but these ignore the global challenges that the concept was meant to address. We return to the original definition of sustainable development used in the Brundtland Report and suggest an assessment method to determine whether countries currently meet the threshold values of four equally important primary dimensions: safeguarding long-term ecological sustainability, satisfying basic needs, and promoting intragenerational and intergenerational equity. We also define indicators and threshold values for each of these dimensions; in addition, we show how 167 countries compare in meeting these threshold values. Currently, no country meets all four thresholds. Even so, we propose that, with the use of technology and behavioural changes, it will be possible to reach the threshold values by 2030.publishedVersio
COMPARING THE GTAP-MRIO AND WIOD DATABASES FOR CARBON FOOTPRINT ANALYSIS
No full textThis is a submitted manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Economic Systems Research on 04 Aug 2014, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/09535314.2014.939949We explore two different worldwide multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases (Global Trade Analysis Project-MRIO and World Input–Output Database) for the calculation of the global carbon footprint (CF) of nations. We start our analysis with a description of the main characteristics of the databases and then make a comparison between their main components. Then, we calculate the CF with both databases and identify (from a global perspective) the most relevant factors underlying their differences using structural decomposition analysis. On average, certain parts of both databases (e.g. intermediate uses and final demand) can be said to be similar for around 75% to 80%, with only a few elements in each part mainly driving the major differences. The divergences in the datasets of four countries explain almost 50% of the differences in the CF (the USA, China, Russia and India). Industry-wise, 50% of the differences can be explained by the divergences in electricity, refining and inland transport industries.submittedVersio
A multimodel examination of climate Extremes in an idealized geoengineering experiment
Get PDFTemperature and precipitation extremes are examined in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project experiment G1, wherein an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2 from its preindustrial control value is offset by a commensurate reduction in solar irradiance. Compared to the preindustrial climate, changes in climate extremes under G1 are generally much smaller than under 4 × CO2 alone. However, it is also the case that extremes of temperature and precipitation in G1 differ significantly from those under preindustrial conditions. Probability density functions of standardized anomalies of monthly surface temperature and precipitation in G1 exhibit an extension of the high- tail over land, of the low- tail over ocean, and a shift of to drier conditions. Using daily model output, we analyzed the frequency of extreme events, such as the coldest night (TNn), warmest day (TXx), and maximum 5 day precipitation amount, and also duration indicators such as cold and warm spells and consecutive dry days. The strong heating at northern high latitudes simulated under 4 × CO2 is much alleviated in G1, but significant warming remains, particularly for TNn compared to TXx. Internal feedbacks lead to regional increases in absorbed solar radiation at the surface, increasing temperatures over Northern Hemisphere land in summer. Conversely, significant cooling occurs over the tropical oceans, increasing cold spell duration there. Globally, G1 is more effective in reducing changes in temperature extremes compared to precipitation extremes and for reducing changes in precipitation extremes versus means but somewhat less effective at reducing changes in temperature extremes compared to means.publishedVersio
Policy invention and entrepreneurship: Bankrolling the burying of carbon in the EU
Get PDFThis article presents the case of a policy invention where various kinds of entrepreneurship and a window of opportunity played important roles. In 2008 the EU adopted a new Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) policy with an inventive funding instrument at its core: the NER 300 fund, based on revenues from the auctioning of emissions trading allowances. Thus far, the literature on policy entrepreneurs has focused more on success factors that enable particular persons to be especially influential than on the defining characteristics of entrepreneurship. We contribute to the literature on entrepreneurship and windows of opportunity by distinguishing two entrepreneurial techniques – framing and procedural engineering – and two categories of commitment – ‘tortoise’ and carpe diem. We conclude that ‘tortoises’ who contributed to creating the broad and general climate policy window paved the way for issue-specific carpe diemers who promoted the more specific NER 300 policy invention. Furthermore, we distinguish and discuss four different entrepreneurship mechanisms that may influence policy invention processes.submittedVersio