CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
Not a member yet
1083 research outputs found
Sort by
Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe
Get PDFThe present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998–2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8 h average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.publishedVersio
Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?
Get PDFUsing data from 214 hydropower projects in Norway we study whether investors in renewable energy projects exert discretion about the timing of investment decisions. We know from interviews with these investors that they do not use the real options model; however, we would like to learn whether they act consistently with this approach. These investments were expected to be supported financially through renewable policy schemes, but were not during the time period we consider. We calculate subsidies implied by investors' decisions using both real options and net present value models and compare these expected subsidies with subsidies observed in a very closely related market (Sweden). Our analysis indicates that our assumed real options model implies expected subsidies that align well with the ones observed. If we assume investors used a net present value model, the corresponding implied subsidies are close to zero. However, we know from interviews with investors that they did expect subsidies. We therefore conclude that the real options model is a meaningful descriptor of the observed investment behavior.acceptedVersio
Climate Footprints of Norwegian Dairy and Meat - a Synthesis
Get PDFThis report reviews the current literature on meat, milk and dairy, with a special focus on Norway. To understand differences in reported emissions, the report explains the variation in methodological approaches such as division over co-products, functional unit selection, and system boundaries. Cattle meat, milk and dairy emissions are analyzed and compared with selected other foods that could act as a replacement, according to the various system boundaries used in the studies. Emissions from meat and dairy in Norway are compared with the Nordics and west-Europe, and other regions where relevant. Comparisons are also made between different production systems, including conventional and organic, intensive and extensive, and beef production from different types of cows. Finally, the report analyses the relative impacts of the different life cycle stages of meat and milk production and consumption. In a short section, it highlights some of the potentials for change of milk and meat impacts on the climate that emerged from the literature.
Key findings summarize emissions for meat from dairy cows (around 19,5 kg CO2 equivalents per kg product), young bulls (around 19 kg CO2eq/kg), suckler cows (around 30 kg CO2eq/kg) and milk (around 1,2 CO2eq/kg). Norway’s emissions from combined meat-milk production are higher than in other Nordic and Western European countries, mainly because other countries have higher yields and lower methane emissions. Cattle meat and milk emit more than potential alternatives. Use of functional units and comparison between products depends on the stakeholders and context for comparison. In Norwegian meat and milk production, on-farm processes play by far the largest role, with around 78% of the emissions. Pre-farm stages contribute 22%. Most, around 38%, come from methane from ruminant digestion. Importantly, few if any studies present allocations over the full life cycle, which means that proportions for pre-, on—and post-farm emissions may change significantly when including all life cycle stages. Finally, the report finds no clear differences between conventional and organic meat and milk production in terms of climate impact, while intensive and extensive systems both have large mitigation potential.TIN
What’s Fair – and Why? An Empirical Analysis of Distributive Fairness in the Climate Negotiations
Get PDFIn the climate negotiations, conceptions of fairness plays an important role. For a climate agreement to be effective and durable, it must be conceived as fair by as many of its parties as possible. Unfortunately, there is hardly a consensus in the negotiations on what a fair agreement should constitute, and diverging fairness conceptions are at the heart of the conflicts of the negotiations. This thesis is an attempt at understanding this fairness dimension. It attempts to answer two related questions: 1) what do the parties in the negotiations conceive as fair? And 2) why do parties in the negotiations have differing conceptions of what constitutes a fair agreement?
The findings of this thesis indicate that there has been little progress on reaching a common understanding of fairness in the negotiations over the last five-year cycle of negotiations that concluded with the Paris agreement. Even though a significant potential for compromise exists, key actors’ positions on the fairness dimension are polarized. This might be an explanation for why a burden-sharing approach is no longer possible in the negotiations. Whether a country is listed as “developing” or “developed” in the UNFCCC is the most important explanatory factor for diverging fairness conceptions - indicating that conceptions of fairness are largely driven by self-interest
Norway’s role in supporting green growth in developing countries
Get PDFThis report discusses green growth in developing countries, and Norway's role supporting such a green development strategy. After defining green growth in the context of developing countries, the report discusses indicators of green growth, barriers, and prominent instruments to facilitate green growth. Two case studies are presented, the first on green bonds in Ethiopia, and the second on introducing a green growth credit mechanism. The report concludes with some general findings, and findings linked to the two case studies
Uncertainties around reductions in China's coal use and CO 2 emissions
Get PDFChinese coal consumption dropped 2.9% in 2014 according to preliminary official statistics1 released in 2015. This was hailed as historic after China’s meteoric growth in the 2000s2. The International Energy Agency used it to estimate ~1.5% reduction in Chinese fossil CO2 emissions for 20143, and an unprecedented 0.2% reduction in global emissions4. Similar preliminary coal consumption statistics are announced every year, and will be watched closely after China’s recent slowdown in emissions growth and pledge to peak emissions in 2030 or earlier. However, Chinese energy statistics are frequently revised and often contain large anomalies5, 6, implying high uncertainty. For example, BP used different Chinese data to estimate a 0.9% increase in 2014 CO2 emissions7, 8. Here, we analyse these preliminary announcements, with an approach that can be used to assess the robustness of similar future announcements. We show that the preliminary 2.9% reduction in coal consumption is inappropriate for estimating CO2 emissions, that coal-derived energy consumption stayed flat but is likely to have decreased in 2015, and that Chinese fossil CO2 emissions probably increased ~0.8% in 2014. We also analyse recent revisions of official energy statistics, and find that they imply 925 MtCO2 (11.2%) higher emissions for 2013, and 7.6 GtCO2 (9.2%) higher total emissions for 2000–2013.acceptedVersio
Instruments to incentivize private climate finance for developing countries
Get PDFMultiple financial instruments are available to de-risk or reduce costs related to climate mitigation measures and projects in developing countries. The financial instruments can be divided into the categories: revenue support, credit enhancement, direct investments, and insurance. More of these instruments are suited for de-risking than for cost reduction, and especially for reducing market and commercial risks. In terms of cost reduction, the majority of instruments affect transaction costs or the rate of return. Not all financial instruments are suited for all situations. Assessing financial instruments with the help of leverage ratio (amount of private finance raised per unit of public finance spent), scaling-up potential, and reliability, we find that the most suitable or promising instruments are significantly dependent on the context, foremost the ‘climate’ for investments in a country and the sectors invested in. The suitability of financial instruments is guided by the mandate of the agency extending climate finance, the specific goals pursued, and the barriers faced when trying to fulfill these goals. The case studies show that financial instruments often are used in combination to make a transaction possible. We present a procedure for assessing climate finance instruments, consisting of evaluation of barriers that have been observed in specific cases and possible solutions that should be considered, as well as some further checkpoints. This procedure should be helpful for public agencies responsible for designing support, financing schemes and climate-related projects for developing countries
Støtte til elektrisitetsproduksjon fra fornybare kilder. Er risiko et onde?
Get PDFEuropakommisjonen ønsker mer bruk av markedsbaserte støtteordninger, slik som det norsk-svenske elsertifikatmarkedet. Likevel velger de fleste EU-land faste innmatingstariffer og tilsvarende støtteordninger som skjermer investor mot prisrisiko. Men, er prisrisikoen under markedsorienterte støttesystemer uhåndterbar? Er risiko et onde? Og, hva med politisk risiko for justeringer i støtteordningene? Jeg diskuterer disse problemstillingene med utgangspunkt i den politikken som føres på dette området i Europa i dag.publishedVersio
Wave transition in household energy use
Get PDFThe final publication is available at ElsevierThe energy ladder model and energy stacking model have been proposed in the literature to describe the relations between income growth and transition of energy consumed by households. Both models are largely descriptive and provide limited guidelines for quantitative verification. By contrast, the logistic substitution model has been adopted much earlier to depict the long-run energy transition of a society over time. This model assumes that substitute technologies in energy sources are available in the energy market. In the present paper, we argue that household energy transition over income can follow the same pattern as energy dynamics over time in the logistic substation model. Hence, we construct a new model, energy wave transition model, by adapting the logistic substitution model to describe household energy transition both over time and over income. The new model not only captures the features presented in the energy ladder and stacking models, but also provides methods for quantitative verification.We illustrate the new model using the energy consumption pattern of Chinese households as an example.submittedVersio
The Paris Agreement: Short-term and Long-term Effectiveness
Get PDFThe 2015 Paris Agreement was widely greeted with enthusiasm. We assess the short-term and long-term potential effectiveness of Paris. Concerning short-term effectiveness, we contend that while Paris scores high on participation, and reasonably high on the depth of the parties’ commitments (ambition), its Achilles’ heel will likely be compliance. Concerning long-term effectiveness, we argue that Paris does little to restructure states’ incentives so as to avoid free riding. At worst, it might end up as a failure, much like Kyoto did. On the other hand, domestic and international norms could continue to develop in a direction that makes it more and more difficult for individuals, firms, and states alike to ignore the plea to limit and reduce their carbon footprints. Technological progress that gradually reduces abatement costs, combined with leadership by major emitters such as the United States, might further strengthen climate cooperation and enhance other countries’ willingness to follow through. However, deep political polarization continues to represent a significant barrier to U.S. leadership on climate change.publishedVersio