CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Establishing a baseline for monitoring and evaluating user satisfaction with climate services in Tanzania
Get PDFThis report is an output from the Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Program in Africa (GFCS-APA) Tanzania country activities. The aim of the report is to establish a baseline for monitoring “User Satisfaction with Climate Services” at the national, district, and local levels, with a focus on the programme target districts of Longido and Kiteto. A qualitative approach was employed to document 1) existing institutional coordination and steering mechanisms for a dedicated climate services platform at the national level; 2) respondents’ awareness of and access to climate information and services at national, district and local levels; 3) respondents’ perceptions of the ‘usability’ of climate information and services, and 4) the role of indigenous knowledge (IK) about weather, climate, and related adaptation options. Following Cash et al., (2003), we analyzed “user satisfaction” in relation to respondents’ perceptions of the credibility, salience, and legitimacy of climate information and services. Key findings include: 1) A national steering mechanism for climate services has been adopted, but there is a need to strengthen institutional coordination across all scales; 2) Awareness of and access to climate information and services are highly variable across institutional scales, indicating a need for increased awareness of the concept of climate services as well as efforts to enhance delivery of climate information; 3) Perceptions of the credibility of climate information and services are paramount to increasing user satisfaction, and depend upon respondents’ experience using climate information in practice. Mismatches between the timing of decision-making and the production and delivery of forecasts, as well as the limited spatial and temporal resolution of climate information and products, undermine the salience of climate information. The way in which forecasts are currently packaged and communicated presents additional challenges to understanding and interpreting the information for practical decision-making. At the local level, disparities in capacities to access and benefit from climate information and services and the potential for climate information to take on political implications when attached to specific advice pose challenges to the legitimacy of climate information and services development. 4) IK was seen as being particularly important to decision-making at local levels, where it gains its credibility through the long-term observations it is based on, as well as the experience that communities already have working with this knowledge. Incorporating IK within climate services development is necessary to enhance the legitimacy of the processes and the applicability of the knowledge that is generated to local decision-making, but there are a number of challenges to incorporating scientific and indigenous knowledges. The findings highlight that improving user satisfaction with climate services will be a long-term process that requires capacity building among producers, intermediaries, and users at all levels, particularly to promote innovation in delivery, communication, and tailoring of climate services products. Developing knowledge that is salient, credible, and legitimate in particular decision-making contexts will also require long-term collaboration, as well as transparency about the strengths and limitations of scientific information and open dialogue about the various ways in which stakeholders at different scales assess the credibility of climate information. Based on the analysis, the authors put forward twelve recommendations to improve user satisfaction with climate information and services in Tanzania in the future
Kommunalbanken (KBN)
No full textCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Municipal Finance, Issuer type: Financial Institution, Shading: Medium GreenpublishedVersio
The influence of atmospheric blocking on extreme winter minimum temperatures in North America
Get PDFRegional climate models (RCMs) are the primary source of high-resolution climate projections, and it is of crucial importance to evaluate their ability to simulate extreme events under current climate conditions. Many extreme events are influenced by circulation features that occur outside, or on the edges of, RCM domains. Thus, it is of interest to know whether such dynamically controlled aspects of extremes are well represented by RCMs. This study assesses the relationship between upstream blocking and cold temperature extremes over North America in observations, reanalysis products (ERA-Interim and NARR), and RCMs (CanRCM4, CRCM5, HIRHAM5, and RCA4). Generalized extreme value distributions were fitted to winter minimum temperature (TNn) incorporating blocking frequency (BF) as a covariate, which is shown to have a significant influence on TNn. The magnitude of blocking influence in the RCMs is consistent with observations, but the spatial extent varies. CRCM5 and HIRHAM5 reproduce the pattern of influence best compared to observations. CanRCM4 and RCA4 capture the influence of blocking in British Columbia and the northeastern United States, but the extension of influence that is seen in observations and reanalysis into the southern United States is not evident. The difference in the 20-yr return value (20RV) of TNn between high and low BF in the Pacific Ocean indicates that blocking is associated with a decrease of up to 15°C in the 20RV over the majority of the United States and in western Canada. In northern North America the difference in the 20RV is positive as blocking is associated with warmer extreme cold temperatures. The 20RVs are generally simulated well by the RCMs.publishedVersio
Luftfart og klima - En oppdatert oversikt over status for forskning på klimaeffekter av utslipp fra fly
Get PDFDenne rapporten gir en oppdatert oversikt over hvordan og i hvilken grad de ulike utslippene fra flytrafikk påvirker klima basert på den nyeste forskningen. For å forstå den totale klimaeffekten av luftfart er det viktig å inkludere alle mekanismene som bidrar til klimapåvirkning, samt hvordan disse kan vektes og sammenlignes på tvers av ulike skalaer i tid og rom. Dette er hovedfokus i denne rapporten. Rapporten er en oppdatering av Lund m.fl. (2011) og fokuserer på forskningsresultater siden da. Arbeidet er finansiert av Avino
The effects of energy efficiency improvement in China with global interaction
Get PDFChina has pledged to reduce its carbon intensity defined as carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 and by 60–65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level. To fulfill the pledges, China’s government has made energy efficiency its de facto climate policy. This article raises the question to what extent energy efficiency will be an efficient mitigation measure for reaching the targets as pledged by China to the UNFCCC. In this context, two issues blur the picture. One is the potential rebound effect, generally causing one percent improvement in energy efficiency to generate less than one percent reduction in energy-related emissions since users adapt to the direct and indirect productivity gains and cost reductions in energy use. Further, there is the impact on energy use in China from interaction with global markets, in which China has emerged as a dominant player. In the present paper, we study the net implications of energy efficiency improvement in China within alternative global climate policy regimes. Our results show that a one percent energy efficiency improvement in China reduces energy use by 0.38–0.59 percent per year depending on alternative international contexts. Hence, policy makers should consider climate policies adopted by the other regions such as carbon trading system when assessing the implications of energy efficiency for energy consumption and climate mitigation. Policy makers should also consider overlapping effects of alternative energy policies, as energy efficiency improvement might have no effect on energy and emission reduction if there is global carbon trade. However, policy makers can expect more reduction in energy use and emissions due to energy efficiency improvement in the new mechanism announced in the Paris Agreement at the COP21.publishedVersio
Business as UNusual: the implications of fossil divestment and green bonds for financial flows, economic growth and energy market
Get PDFGreen bonds and fossil divestment has emerged as a bottom-up approach to climate action within the business community. Recent pledges by large banks and institutional investors have reached levels that have the potential to contribute markedly to a low carbon transition. This paper traces the impact of green finance in a multiregional global general equilibrium model with non-fossil and non-coal segments of financial flows in addition to the usual unconstrained market for funding. Our high green finance scenario reflects a reasonable upscaling of current level of pledges towards 2030.
The study shows that green finance shifts the investments towards industries generating more value added and increasing GDP, future savings and investments. The green finance leads to a lower return on investments and a transfer of income from investors to wage income. Russia and China see the largest cost increase in coal investments due to constraints on finance for fossil industries. The green finance reduces coal consumption by 2.5 per cent below BAU in 2030 and raises the share of non-fossil electricity from 42 to 46 per cent at the global level. Over the whole period towards 2030, the green finance avoids global CO2 emissions corresponding to the total emissions of European Union and Japan in a recent year
When Does Informal Enforcement Work?
Get PDFThis is the accepted, refereed and final manuscript to the article published by SAGEWe study experimentally how enforcement influences public goods provision when subjects face two free-rider options that roughly parallel the nonparticipation and noncompliance options available for countries in relation to multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs). Our results add to the MEA literature in two ways. First, they suggest that compliance enforcement will fail to enhance compliance in the absence of participation enforcement. Second, they indicate that compliance enforcement will boost compliance significantly in the presence of participation enforcement. Our results also add to the experimental literature on public goods provision, again in two ways. First, they reveal that previous experimental findings of enforcement boosting cooperation are valid only in settings with forced (or enforced) participation. Second, they show that subjects’ willingness to allocate costly punishment points is significantly stronger when the enforcement system permits punishment of both types of free riding than when it permits punishment of only one type.acceptedVersio
Virksomme klimabudskap
Get PDFDenne rapporten gir en kort oversikt over hva forskere og kommunikasjonseksperter mener er det viktigste som skal til for å få folk engasjert i klimasaken og hvilke verdier forskjellige målgrupper baserer sine valg på. Den beskriver forskning på verdier og innramming av budskap i kommunikasjon om klima og nord-sør problematikk. Videre gir rapporten eksempler på hvordan klimabudskap har blitt brukt av andre aktører, både i Norge og i andre land, og som kunne være verdt å teste i en norsk kontekst. Rapporten er skrevet i oppdrag av Naturvernforbundet, som ønsker å undersøke hvilke budskap som bidrar til å øke nordmenns klimaengasjement sett i sammenheng med et nord-sør perspektiv
Reducing uncertainties in decadal variability of the global carbon budget with multiple datasets
Get PDFConventional calculations of the global carbon budget infer the land sink as a residual between emissions, atmospheric accumulation, and the ocean sink. Thus, the land sink accumulates the errors from the other flux terms and bears the largest uncertainty. Here, we present a Bayesian fusion approach that combines multiple observations in different carbon reservoirs to optimize the land (B) and ocean (O) carbon sinks, land use change emissions (L), and indirectly fossil fuel emissions (F) from 1980 to 2014. Compared with the conventional approach, Bayesian optimization decreases the uncertainties in B by 41% and in O by 46%. The L uncertainty decreases by 47%, whereas F uncertainty is marginally improved through the knowledge of natural fluxes. Both ocean and net land uptake (B + L) rates have positive trends of 29 ± 8 and 37 ± 17 Tg C⋅y−2 since 1980, respectively. Our Bayesian fusion of multiple observations reduces uncertainties, thereby allowing us to isolate important variability in global carbon cycle processes.publishedVersio
Five criteria for global sustainable development
Get PDFA clear understanding of the global-level sustainable development concept is necessary before applying it to projects at a national, local or firm level. Such lower-level projects may concern managing production and consumption of energy, organization of cities and using land productively. However, the Sustainable development goals adopted at the United Nations Summit in September 2015 do not provide adequate guidance, even at the global level, because the goals are too many, too vague and often not quantified. Based on the 1987 report Our Common Future, we derive five criteria for the development of primary goals and corresponding indictors and quantified thresholds to be met.publishedVersio