CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Seizing policy windows: Policy Influence of climate advocacy coalitions in Brazil, China, and India, 2000?2015
Get PDFWhat drives the development of climate policy? Brazil, China, and India have all changed their climate policies since 2000, and single-case analyses of climate policymaking have found that all three countries have had climate coalitions working to promote climate policies. To what extent have such advocacy coalitions been able to influence national policies for climate-change mitigation, and what can explain this? Employing a new approach that combines the advocacy coalition framework (ACF) with insights from comparative environmental politics and the literature on policy windows, this paper identifies why external parameters like political economy and institutional structures are crucial for explaining the climate advocacy coalitions’ ability to seize policy windows and influence policy development. We find that the coalitions adjust their policy strategies to the influence-opportunity structures in each political context—resulting in confrontation in Brazil, cooperation in China, and a complementary role in IndiaSeizing policy windows: Policy Influence of climate advocacy coalitions in Brazil, China, and India, 2000?2015publishedVersio
Co-operation or co-optation? NGOs' roles in Norway's international climate and forest initiative
Get PDFThis paper investigates non-governmental organisation (NGO) involvement in policy processes related to Norway’s International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI) comparing four countries: Norway, Brazil, Indonesia, and Tanzania. Based on documents and interviews, NGO involvement is mapped using a conceptual framework to categorise and compare different roles and modes of engagement. NGOs have co-operated with government in policy design and implementation, albeit to varying degrees, in all four countries, but expressed relatively little public criticism. Funding seems to have an influence on NGOs’ choices regarding whether, what, when, and how to criticise. However, limited public criticism does not necessarily mean that the NGOs are co-opted. They are reflexive regarding their possible operating space, and act strategically and pragmatically to pursue their goals in an entrepreneurial manner. The interests of NGOs and NICFI are to a large extent congruent. Instead of publicly criticising a global initiative that they largely support, and thus put the initiative as a whole at risk, NGOs may use other, more informal, channels to voice points of disagreement. While NGOs do indeed run the risk of being co-opted, their opportunity to resist this fate is probably greater in this instance than is usually the case because NICFI are so reliant on their services.publishedVersio
King County
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Municipal Government, Issuer type: Local Government, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Socio-economic consequences of climate change in Hindu-Kush Himalaya
Get PDFThe answer to how climate change will affect Hindu-Kush-Himalaya depends on whom you ask. Some will point at expected changes in climate, others will show what it may do to poor people, and some will express their concerns regarding the economies in the region. This report combines the three perspectives, and assesses the economic impacts of climate projections in China, India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh to 2050. We further explore the consequences for smallholders of the projected changes in climate and resulting impacts on the socioeconomic drivers, based on survey in a local community in Nepal. The study points out reasons to expect that climate change will most likely affect smallholders much harder than indicated by economic indicators for their countries. Economic growth can be a successful way to improve the resilience of the population, but only if it benefits the poorest.publishedVersio
Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emission changes during the period 1990-2015
Get PDFOver the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. −1 to −3 % yr−1 in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990–2015 period increased by +0.17 ± 0.08 W m−2, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5. The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.publishedVersio
Agder Energi
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Energy, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Vellinge Municipality
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Municipal Government, Issuer type: Local Government, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Soltech
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Energy, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Response to marine cloud brightening in a multi-model ensemble
Get PDFHere we show results from Earth System Model simulations from the marine cloud brightening experiment G4cdnc of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The nine contributing models prescribe a 50 % increase in the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of low clouds over the global oceans, with the purpose of counteracting the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases under the RCP4.5 scenario. The model ensemble median effective radiative forcing (ERF) amounts to −1.9 Wm−2, with a substantial inter-model spread of −0.6 to −2.5 Wm−2. The large spread is partly related to the considerable differences in clouds and their representation between the models, with an underestimation of low clouds in several of the models. All models predict a statistically significant temperature decrease with a median of (for years 2020–2060) −0.95 [−0.18 to −1.19] K relative to the RCP4.5 scenario, with particularly strong cooling over low-latitude continentss. Globally averaged there is a weak but significant precipitation decrease of −2.24 [−0.49 to −2.90] % due to a colder climate, but at low latitudes there is a 1.20 % increase over land. This increase is part of a circulation change where a strong negative TOA short-wave forcing over subtropical oceans, caused by increased albedo associated with the increasing CDNC, is compensated by rising motion and positive TOA long-wave signals over adjacent land regions.submittedVersio