CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Handelsbanken
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Banking, Issuer type: Financial Institution, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Evaluating User Satisfaction with Climate Services in Tanzania 2014 - 2016: Summary Report to the Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa
Get PDFThis report summarizes findings from qualitative research undertaken by the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO) and the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM) in Tanzania between 2014 and 2016 under the Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa (GFCS-APA). This research has aimed to support the programme’s internal monitoring and evaluation efforts by establishing a baseline and conducting follow-up research aimed at understanding how potential users of climate services at the local, district and national levels can be supported to access and apply climate information and services in decision-making concerning agriculture and food security, disaster risk reduction and management and health. Findings draw on interviews and focus group discussions with potential users and intermediaries of climate services in Kiteto and Longido districts, and key informant interviews with climate service co-producers, intermediaries and users at local, district and national levels. Following the approach taken in the baseline report, we assess the ‘usability’ of both scientific climate information and services and indigenous knowledge in relation to user perceptions of the credibility, salience, and legitimacy of this knowledge, also known as the knowledge system criteria (Cash et al., 2003, Tang and Dessai 2011). Findings from research conducted in 2016 are presented in relation to qualitative indicators and sub-indicators of “user satisfaction” that were developed and applied in the baseline report (Daly, West and Yanda, 2016). The indicators address respondents’: perceptions and experiences of institutional coordination and steering mechanisms for delivering climate services across scales (indicator 1); awareness of and access to climate information and service channels (indicator 2); satisfaction with the information and services developed and received (indicator 3), and views and experiences concerning the role of indigenous knowledge (IK) about the weather, climate and related adaptation options (indicator 4) in local decision-making processes. The findings suggest that while efforts at co-producing user-oriented climate services under the GFCS-APA have strengthened institutional coordination and steering mechanisms for climate services development at the national level and enhanced awareness of and access to climate information and service channels amongst some stakeholders, access to salient, credible and legitimate climate information and services remains highly uneven at the local level. Disparities in levels of basic service provision, mismatches in the timing and resolution of seasonal forecasts, and difficulties in understanding and translating forecast information into actionable advice, continue to undermine the usability of scientific climate and meteorological information within and across villages in the two districts studied. Gender roles and gendered disparities in literacy in some cases further undermine women’s abilities to access climate services and constrain their ability to understand and interpret climate information. Despite these limitations, respondents at the local level generally consider scientific information about the weather and climate to be potentially “useful” information that can complement traditional forecasts and local and indigenous sources of knowledge about weather, climate and related adaptation options. However, the findings suggest that substantial barriers exist to coproducing, institutionalizing, scaling up and sustaining decision-driven climate information and services that meet expressed stakeholder needs, that cut across sectors, and that are widely accessible and usable. The findings illustrate some of the challenges encountered to co-producing usable climate information and services within a multiagency climate services programme targeting diverse stakeholders and sectors. Consolidating and sharing learning from the pilot phase of the GFCS-APA will constitute an important first step towards developing more credible, salient and legitimate processes for co-producing usable climate services going forward. With this in mind we offer ten recommendations for enhancing user satisfaction with climate services in Tanzania in the future.publishedVersio
A production-tagged aerosol module for earth system models, OsloAero5.3-extensions and updates for CAM5.3-Oslo
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Stockholms Lans Landsting (SLL) (Stockholm City Council)
No full textCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Municipal Government, Issuer type: Local Government, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Public Attitudes Toward Climate Policies: The Effect of Institutional Contexts and Political Values
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Near- and long-term global warming of current emissions
Get PDFHuman activities influence the climate in a range of ways. While emissions of CO2 from burning of fossil fuels is the dominant factor behind the present rapid global warming, many other gases and particles also contribute. These may have short or long atmospheric lifetimes, and thus have climate impacts that are important in the near- or long-term, or both. They may also be either warming or cooling, and several climate perturbing substances may be emitted from the same sources. Consequently, determining the full impact of a given mitigation measure, aimed at reducing emissions if a given substance, is not trivial.
In the present report, commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment, we discuss the near- and long-term climate impacts of present emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (here defined as CO2 and N2O), and a range of short-lived climate forcers. Based on this, we discuss the potential for optimal mitigation strategies across regions and sectors, including co-benefits for health and agriculture.publishedVersio
The climate impacts of current black carbon and organic carbon emissions
Get PDFIn Part 1, we present a summary of recent research into the climate impact of black and organic carbon. There have been many developments on the research front in recent years, and this rapid pace is expected to continue. The strength of the climate impacts of black and organic carbon is governed by the amount of global emissions, how long the aerosols remain suspended in the air after emission, and how effective their various climate interactions are. Current estimates of annual emissions of both black and organic carbon are higher than they were a few years ago. Black carbon is currently estimated to have only a moderate global warming effect, but may have a stronger influence on regional temperatures and precipitation. Organic carbon emissions are still estimated to have a moderately cooling effect.
In Part 2, we use the conclusions from Part 1 to assess differences between emission regions and sectors in terms of climate impact of BC and OC. We emphasize here that the conclusions in the following pages are based on our assessment guided by recent literature, and as such are not necessary representative of the whole research community. In summary, we find that:
• The climate impacts of aerosols emitted in a given region may be both local and remote. There is no direct connection between the pattern of emission, radiative forcing and temperature change. The sensitivity of global temperature to black carbon emissions also differs by region. Hence, the mitigation potential of BC and OC (in terms of global temperature change) needs to be separately considered for each emission region.
• Presently, East Asia, South Asia and Southern Africa are the main BC emission regions, each causing around 0.01 °C of global warming. The Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Caucasus region represents a similar amount of warming, but for much lower emissions (25% of those in East Asia), illustrating the regional difference in sensitivity to emissions.
• The residential sector (fuel for cooking and heating) emits the most BC, globally and in the main emissions regions. In East Asia, the energy sector also contributes strongly.
• The mitigation potential of warming BC is strongly dependent on co-emission with cooling OC. Transportation stands out as the sector with lowest co-emissions of OC, suggesting higher mitigation potential in regions where transportation contributes significantly to global BC emissions. North Africa and the Middle East, East Asia and South America are examples.
• BC has likely been a contributor to the recent strong Arctic warming. The sensitivity of Arctic temperature is highest for high latitude source regions, notably Europe and the Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Caucasus regions. In absolute impact, East Asia and South Asia are the strongest contributors to Arctic warming through BC emissions.
• The climate impact of aerosols extends beyond temperature, to precipitation and extreme weather. However, we find that present knowledge is insufficient to quantify the impacts of present BC and OC emissions on global or regional precipitation patterns. This is an area of very active research, and will likely have progressed when the IPCC 6th Assessment Report is published.publishedVersio
Sunndal Sparebank
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Banking, Issuer type: Financial Institution, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Flomrisiko i Norge: Hvem betaler for framtidens våtere klima?
Get PDFNorge er ett flomutsatt land og vi kan forvente oss mer flom i fremtiden. Som en
følge av klimaendringer, vil mengden ekstrem nedbør øke og regnflommer vil bli
større og komme oftere.
Alle økonomiske sektorer kan bli påvirket av flomrisiko. Byer er særlig sårbare på
grunn av konsentrasjonen av infrastruktur og økonomiske verdier. Flom i
utkantstrøk kan likevel medføre store samfunnskostnader dersom de påvirker
verdikjeder.
De totale kostnadene ved flomhendelser blir regelmessig undervurdert, ettersom
indirekte kostnader, fra strømbrudd eller avbrytelser og forsinkelser i
transportsystemer, ofte blir utelatt. Store flomhendelser får mest oppmerksomhet,
men overvann koster mest.
Systemene for flombeskyttelse som har fungert godt til nå, blir utfordret av
klimaendringer. Det er ikke sikkert at investorer og kommuner kan regne med at
forsikringsselskapene eller staten vil fortsette å ta regningene.
Kommunene må øke innsatsen mot flomrisiko. De kan oppleve at de i større grad
blir utfordret av forsikringsselskap og innbyggere i avgjørelser om å evakuere og
for å ha tillatt utbygning i flomutsatte områder
Vasakronan
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Real Estate, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio