CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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ShareOn – midtveisrapport mai 2019
Get PDFShareOn prosjektet er et samarbeidprosjekt hvor både forskningsmiljøer, offentlige aktører, næringsaktører og idedrevne (ideelle) organisasjoner deltar. Prosjektet er rettet mot å belyse deling som strategi i omstillingen til lavutslippssamfunnet. Denne rapporten omtaler foreløpige funn i prosjektet. Prosjektet ferdigstilles våren 2020.publishedVersio
Utvikling av klimabudsjettarbeidet
Get PDFProgram for storbyrettet forskning har gitt CICERO, Endrava og Asplan Viak et oppdrag om å bistå de fem storbykommunene Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, Stavanger og Kristiansand i å videreutvikle klimabudsjettarbeidet. Prosjektet er finansiert av KS ved Program for storbyrettet forskning. Oslo kommune ved byrådsavdeling for finans har vært den formelle oppdragsgiveren og kontaktpunkt. Oppdraget var å kartlegge status for og bruk av klimabudsjettene og gi konkrete anbefalinger til videreutvikling. En viktig del av prosjektet var dialog med byene selv. Rapporten gir anbefalinger innenfor følgende områder som er trukket ut som viktige for videreutviklingen av klimabudsjettarbeidet gjennom workshoper og intervjuer med kommunene: Integrering i ordinært budsjett, ansvarsfordeling og eierskap i ulike deler av kommuneorganisasjonen, forankring i hele kommuneorganisasjonen, behov knyttet til politisk og administrativ ledelse, transparens og etterprøvbarhet, behov for tidligere, mer korrekt og detaljert kommunefordelt klimagassregnskap, bruk av indikatorer, begrensinger knyttet til tiltaksmuligheter og behov for nasjonale føringer og verktøy, blant annet for framskrivning av utslipp. I tillegg gir rapporten innspill til hvordan kommunene kan ta hensyn til indirekte utslipp i klimaarbeidet.publishedVersio
Interactions between the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosystems at northern high latitudes
Get PDFThe Nordic Centre of Excellence CRAICC (Cryosphere–Atmosphere Interactions in a Changing Arctic Climate), funded by NordForsk in the years 2011–2016, is the largest joint Nordic research and innovation initiative to date, aiming to strengthen research and innovation regarding climate change issues in the Nordic region. CRAICC gathered more than 100 scientists from all Nordic countries in a virtual centre with the objectives of identifying and quantifying the major processes controlling Arctic warming and related feedback mechanisms, outlining strategies to mitigate Arctic warming, and developing Nordic Earth system modelling with a focus on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), including natural and anthropogenic aerosols. The outcome of CRAICC is reflected in more than 150 peer-reviewed scientific publications, most of which are in the CRAICC special issue of the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. This paper presents an overview of the main scientific topics investigated in the centre and provides the reader with a state-of-the-art comprehensive summary of what has been achieved in CRAICC with links to the particular publications for further detail. Faced with a vast amount of scientific discovery, we do not claim to completely summarize the results from CRAICC within this paper, but rather concentrate here on the main results which are related to feedback loops in climate change–cryosphere interactions that affect Arctic amplification.Interactions between the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosystems at northern high latitudespublishedVersio
Local and remote temperature response of regional SO2 emissions
Get PDFShort-lived anthropogenic climate forcers (SLCFs), such as sulfate aerosols, affect both climate and
air quality. Despite being short-lived, these forcers do not affect temperatures only locally; regions far away from the emission sources are also affected. Climate metrics are often used in a policy context to compare the climate impact of different anthropogenic forcing agents. These metrics typically relate a forcing change in a certain region with a temperature change in another region and thus often require a separate model to convert emission changes to radiative forcing (RF) changes. In this study, we used a coupled Earth system model, NorESM (Norwegian Earth System Model), to calculate
emission-to-temperature-response metrics for sulfur diox ide (SO2) emission changes in four different policy-relevant regions: Europe (EU), North America (NA), East Asia (EA) and South Asia (SA). We first increased the SO2 emissions in each individual region by an amount giv ing approximately the same global average radiative forc ing change (−0.45 Wm−2 ). The global mean temperature
change per unit sulfur emission compared to the control experiment was independent of emission region and equal to ∼0.006 K(TgSyr−1) −1 . On a regional scale, the Arctic showed the largest temperature response in all experiments. The second largest temperature change occurred in the region of the imposed emission increase, except when South Asian emissions were changed; in this experiment, the temperature response was approximately the same in South Asia and East Asia. We also examined the non-linearity of the temperature response by removing all anthropogenic SO2 emissions over Europe in one experiment. In this case, the tempera ture response (both global and regional) was twice that in
the corresponding experiment with a European emission increase. This non-linearity in the temperature response is one of many uncertainties associated with the use of simplified climate metrics.publishedVersio
Very strong atmospheric methane growth in the four years 2014‐2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement
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How Regional Authorities Act Under Restricted Decentralization: Evidence from the Norwegian Transport Sector
Get PDFThe literature on decentralization points out that there is a tendency to limit discretion at
the local level by, for example, imposing national standards. It is therefore of interest to
understand how sub-national authorities act under conditions of political decentralization,
which is not followed by a similar delegation of administrative competence. Are sub national authorities able to make policy changes or do they simply follow the same path
as the central state authorities prior to decentralization? Drawing on insights from
organisational perspectives, it might be expected that the shift of organisational locus
affects policy change. Based on qualitative data, we explore the Norwegian Reform of
Government Administration, which transferred the bulk of the national road network to
the regional level in 2010. This was a political decentralization reform. The sub-national
authorities continued to rely on the national road agency’s competence. Although
standards, the professional community in the road agency and limited financial resources
hampered the effect of the reform, we find that the regional authorities were able to
influence the focus of the road agency towards a more sustainable and holistic regional
perspective.publishedVersio
Willhem
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Real Estate, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Medium GreenpublishedVersio
Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols
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Downscaling probability of long heatwaves based on seasonal mean daily maximum temperatures
Get PDFA methodology for estimating and downscaling the probability associated with the duration of heatwaves is presented and applied as a case study for Indian wheat crops. These probability estimates make use of empirical-statistical downscaling and statistical modelling of probability of occurrence and streak length statistics, and we present projections based on large multi-model ensembles of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and three different emissions scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Our objective was to estimate the probabilities for heatwaves with more than 5 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature above 35 ∘C, which represent a condition that limits wheat yields. Such heatwaves are already quite frequent under current climate conditions, and downscaled estimates of the probability of occurrence in 2010 is in the range of 20 %–84 % depending on the location. For the year 2100, the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 suggests more frequent occurrences, with a probability in the range of 36 %–88 %. Our results also point to increased probabilities for a hot day to turn into a heatwave lasting more than 5 days, from roughly 8 %–20 % at present to 9 %–23 % in 2100 assuming future emissions according to the RCP8.5 scenario; however, these estimates were to a greater extent subject to systematic biases. We also demonstrate a downscaling methodology based on principal component analysis that can produce reasonable results even when the data are sparse with variable quality.publishedVersio
Korea Southern Power Co
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Energy, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Medium GreenpublishedVersio