CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Personal exposure to PM2.5 in Chinese rural households in the Yangtze River Delta
Get PDFHigh levels of PM2.5 exposure and associated health risks are of great concern in rural China. For this study, we used portable PM2.5 monitors for monitoring concentrations online, recorded personal time‐activity patterns, and analyzed the contribution from different microenvironments in rural areas of the Yangtze River Delta, China. The daily exposure levels of rural participants were 66μg/m3 (SD 40) in winter and 65μg/m3 (SD 16) in summer. Indoor exposure levels were usually higher than outdoor levels. The exposure levels during cooking in rural kitchens were 140μg/m3 (SD 116) in winter and 121μg/m3 (SD 70) in summer, the highest in all microenvironments. Winter and summer values were 252μg/m3 (SD 103) and 204μg/m3 (SD 105), respectively, for rural people using biomass for fuel, much higher than those for rural people using LPG and electricity. By combining PM2.5 concentrations and time spent in different microenvironments, we found that 92% (winter) and 85% (summer) of personal exposure to PM2.5 in rural areas was attributable to indoor microenvironments, of which kitchens accounted for 24% and 27%, respectively. Consequently, more effective policies and measures are needed to replace biomass fuel with LPG or electricity, which would benefit the health of the rural population in China.acceptedVersio
Where You Stand Depends on What You Sell – Saudi Arabia’s Obstructionism in the UNFCCC 2012-2018
Get PDFNegotiations on climate change in the United Nations represents the key tool in addressing our time greatest challenge. Countries have negotiated on climate change for decades, and the talks ultimately resulted in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In 2018, the Paris Agreement’s rulebook for implementation was adopted, and the outlook for the new agreement is promising. However, some countries engage in these talks without any intentions to see them succeed. They deploy obstructionist tactics in order to delay progress and derail objectives. A common obstructionist in these negotiations is Saudi Arabia. It has traditionally been one of the most opposing parties to climate action and ambition in the climate change regime. Yet, new developments suggest that Saudi Arabia has revised their traditional climate posture and is now engaging constructively in recent negotiations. This thesis investigates Saudi Arabia’s obstructionist behavior in the climate change negotiations from 2012 to 2018. A content analysis of descriptive reports from the negotiations is conducted. The thesis derives, classifies and analyzes these obstructions in order to determine if Saudi Arabia has truly changed their role as a systematic obstructionist in recent negotiations. The thesis thus reflects upon one of the fundamental questions of state behavior, represented by neo-realism and institutional liberalism. Do states willingly cooperate and ultimately submerge to institutional learning and common interests? The findings of this thesis demonstrate that Saudi Arabia is engaged in a long game in the climate change regime. Obstructions revealed long-held positions related to maintaining their national interests in oil. Based on the findings of this thesis, Saudi Arabia is still a systematic obstructionist in recent negotiations as well.publishedVersio
Hvor godt er norske kommuner rustet til å håndtere følgene av klimaendringer?
Get PDFHer presenteres resultatene fra en spørreundersøkelse CICERO i samarbeid med IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet har gjennomført på oppdrag fra forsikringsselskapet If for å kartlegge hvor langt kommunene er kommet i arbeidet med klimatilpasning. Rapporten synliggjør utfordringer og behov i kommunene og trekker frem kommuner som har kommet langt i sitt arbeid. Undersøkelsen viser at de aller fleste kommunene er i gang med klimatilpasningsarbeidet. Kommunene er samlet sett kommet lengst i organiseringen av arbeidet, deretter følger arbeidet med gjennomføring og evaluering og oppfølging. Kommunene er i snitt kommet kortest i arbeidet med risikovurderinger og prioritering/valg av tiltak som skal iverksettes. Store og sentrale kommuner er kommet lenger enn små og mindre sentrale kommuner. Kommuner med nylige ekstremværerfaringer er kommet lenger enn andre, hvilket tyder på at flere arbeider reaktivt og ikke proaktivt.publishedVersio
Contributions of Nordic anthropogenic emissions on air pollution and premature mortality over the Nordic region and the Arctic
Get PDFThis modeling study presents the sectoral contributions of anthropogenic emissions in the four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) on air pollution levels and the associated health impacts and costs over the Nordic and the Arctic regions for the year 2015. The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) has been used on a 50 km resolution over Europe in tagged mode in order to calculate the response of a 30 % reduction of each emission sector in each Nordic country individually. The emission sectors considered in the study were energy production, non-industrial/commercial heating, industry, traffic, off-road mobile sources and waste management/agriculture. In total, 28 simulations were carried out. Following the air pollution modeling, the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) model has been used to calculate the associated premature mortality and their costs. Results showed that more than 80 % of the PM2.5 concentration was attributed to transport from outside these four countries, implying an effort outside the Nordic region in order to decrease the pollutant levels over the area. The leading emission sector in each country was found to be non-industrial combustion (contributing by more than 60 % to the total PM2.5 mass coming from the country itself), except for Sweden, where industry contributed to PM2.5 with a comparable amount to non-industrial combustion. In addition to non-industrial combustion, the next most important source categories were industry, agriculture and traffic. The main chemical constituent of PM2.5 concentrations that comes from the country itself is calculated to be organic carbon in all countries, which suggested that non-industrial wood burning was the dominant national source of pollution in the Nordic countries. We have estimated the total number of premature mortality cases due to air pollution to be around 4000 in Denmark and Sweden and around 2000 in Finland and Norway. These premature mortality cases led to a total cost of EUR 7 billion in the selected Nordic countries. The assessment of the related premature mortality and associated cost estimates suggested that non-industrial combustion, together with industry and traffic, will be the main sectors to be targeted in emission mitigation strategies in the future.publishedVersio
Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming
Get PDFThe intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming, mainly due to changes in frequency, while the intensity changes are relatively weak, in accordance to previous studies. This shift towards stronger total precipitation from extreme events is seen in observations and climate models, and increases with the strength – and hence the rareness – of the event. Based on these results, we project that if historical trends continue, the most intense precipitation events observed today are likely to almost double in occurrence for each degree of further global warming. Changes to extreme precipitation of this magnitude are dramatically stronger than the more widely communicated changes to global mean precipitation.publishedVersio
Constitutionalization and entrepreneurship: Explaining increased EU steering of renewables support schemes
Get PDFThis article sheds light on two under-researched issue areas: the energy policy-shaping role of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) and how constitutionalization of EU state aid law gives the European Commission (Commission) increased leverage over EU policy development. EU state aid governance is embedded in the Treaty of the Functioning of the EU’s prohibition of state aid. The CJEU and the Commissions’ Directorate-General for Competition (DG Comp) have played important roles in the emergence of stronger EU steering of renewable energy support schemes after 2014. For many years, powerful member states, most notably Germany, stopped the adoption of EU rules requiring more market streamlining and European harmonization of renewables support. This primarily played out in regular EU decision-making (co-decision) related to adoption and revision of the Renewable Energy Directive. A radical shift occurred in 2014 when the Commission introduced new guidelines on state aid for environmental protection and energy, giving the Commission increased authority over development of renewables support schemes across Europe. These guidelines called for renew ables investments to become more exposed to energy market pricing and introduced auctioning as the main allocation mechanism. Support schemes for renewable energy were included for the first time in the EU state aid guidelines for en vironmental protection in 2001. Back then, member states had ample leeway to design support schemes as they pleased.
The 2014 version of the guidelines includes far more detailed requirements. While the first CJEU ruling on renewables state aid hindered the Commission to intervene, new CJEU rulings after 2008 enabled the Commission to draft more restrictive guidelines. This article concludes that constitutionalization, combined with the policy entrepreneurship of Commission of ficials, explains the shift in EU steering in 2014. This indicates that constitutionalization and Commission entrepreneurship should be assessed in conjunction. Constitutionalization may be particularly important in the state aid area due to the superior competence of the CommissionpublishedVersio
Missing the forest for the trees. A review of climate risk data providers as part of the Sustainable Edge project
Get PDFThe financial sector is beginning to integrate climate into their business models and demanding climate related information tailored to financial decision making. A growing market of services and information sources exist and are being developed to meet this demand. We briefly review possible approaches: environmental social and governance (ESG) information covering climate, specialized approaches to physical and transition risk and approaches combing aspects of climate risk and impact. We also present a discussion on how different sources can be used to understand climate risks in a sector and provides insights on the user perspective based on earlier work by CICERO. We discuss the limitations of existing approaches and present a new approach to corporate climate risk assessment that will be developed in the Sustainable Edge projectpublishedVersio
Personal exposure to PM2.5 in Chinese rural households in the Yangtze River Delta
Get PDFHigh levels of PM2.5 exposure and associated health risks are of great concern in rural China. For this study, we used portable PM2.5 monitors for monitoring concentrations online, recorded personal time‐activity patterns, and analyzed the contribution from different microenvironments in rural areas of the Yangtze River Delta, China. The daily exposure levels of rural participants were 66μg/m3 (SD 40) in winter and 65μg/m3 (SD 16) in summer. Indoor exposure levels were usually higher than outdoor levels. The exposure levels during cooking in rural kitchens were 140μg/m3 (SD 116) in winter and 121μg/m3 (SD 70) in summer, the highest in all microenvironments. Winter and summer values were 252μg/m3 (SD 103) and 204μg/m3 (SD 105), respectively, for rural people using biomass for fuel, much higher than those for rural people using LPG and electricity. By combining PM2.5 concentrations and time spent in different microenvironments, we found that 92% (winter) and 85% (summer) of personal exposure to PM2.5 in rural areas was attributable to indoor microenvironments, of which kitchens accounted for 24% and 27%, respectively. Consequently, more effective policies and measures are needed to replace biomass fuel with LPG or electricity, which would benefit the health of the rural population in China.acceptedVersio
Folk og klima: Nordmenns holdninger til klimaendringer, klimapolitikk og eget ansvar
Get PDFDenne rapporten er en delrapport fra prosjektet ACT (‘From targets to action: public responses to climate policy
instruments’) som er finansiert av Norges forskningsråd. Formålet med dette forskningsprosjektet er å gi råd til beslutningstakere om virkemidler som kan støtte overgangen til lavutslippssamfunnet. Prosjektet har som et av flere mål å etablere en forskningsbasert tidsseriedatabase (CICEROs klimaundersøkelse) over nordmenns oppfatninger, holdninger, normer og adferd som er relevante for omstillingen til et lavutslippssamfunn. Denne rapporten gir en oversikt over noen deskriptive resultater fra to spørreundersøkelser gjort i prosjektet. Prosjektet ferdigstilles i løpet av 2021, mens CICEROs klimaundersøkelse fortsetter. Mange av spørsmålene som er dekket, presenteres ikke her, men vies grundigere analyser i kommende publiseringer. Tallene som presenteres gir oss et bilde av hva nordmenn mener om klimaendringer, klimapolitikk og eget ansvar. Et stort flertall av befolkningen mener klimaendringer skjer, at det har negative konsekvenser, og at menneskelig aktivitet påvirker klimaet. Majoriteten mener også at de selv har et ansvar for å kutte egne utslipp. Videre er det et stort flertall som anser at alle sektorer og aktører har et ansvar for at utslipp reduseres, og at ikke andre land må kutte i større grad enn Norge. Samtidig viser tallene langt fra noen entydig retning i hva befolkningen mener konkret bør gjøres for å redusere utslipp, både på individuelt nivå og når det gjelder politikk. Unge under 30 år skiller seg ut fra resten av befolkningen. De er mer klimabekymret, de har oppfatninger som i større grad stemmer med klimaforskningen, og de er mer positive til virkemidler og politikk for utslippskutt. Oppsummert peker tallene i retning av at det finnes et stort rom for lederskap, på alle nivå.publishedVersio
Norwegian petroleum policy in a changing climate
Get PDFThe report provides an up-to-date account of the debates about how Norway can best handle its paradoxical position between oil dependence and climate leadership ambitions. Historically, political actors have sought to reconcile Norway’s goals of climate leadership and petroleum production by separating climate and petroleum policymaking into separate domains. Over the last ten years, however, this separation has increasingly been challenged, leading to a marked increase in political controversy around the future of the Norwegian oil and gas industry. The report gives an overview of the historical background for Norwegian petroleum and climate policy, and details more recent changes in public attitudes, political fault lines, and more specific policy changes currently under discussion. By focusing on the case of Norway, the report aims to inform broader debates about the relationship between fossil fuel extraction and climate policy, as this relationship is attracting increasing attention from climate policy analysts and policymakers internationally.publishedVersio