CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
Not a member yet
1083 research outputs found
Sort by
The use of QBO, ENSO, and NAO perturbations in the evaluation of GOME-2 MetOp A total ozone measurements
Get PDFIn this work we present evidence that quasi cyclical perturbations in total ozone (quasi-biennial oscil lation – QBO, El Niño–Southern Oscillation – ENSO, and North Atlantic Oscillation – NAO) can be used as indepen dent proxies in evaluating Global Ozone Monitoring Exper iment (GOME) 2 aboard MetOp A (GOME-2A) satellite total ozone data, using ground-based (GB) measurements,
other satellite data, and chemical transport model calcula tions. The analysis is performed in the frame of the vali dation strategy on longer time scales within the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satel lites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Atmo spheric Composition Monitoring (AC SAF) project, cover ing the period 2007–2016. Comparison of GOME-2A total
ozone with ground observations shows mean differences of about −0.7±1.4 % in the tropics (0–30◦ ), about +0.1±2.1 % in the mid-latitudes (30–60◦ ), and about +2.5 ± 3.2 % and 0.0±4.3 % over the northern and southern high latitudes (60– 80◦ ), respectively. In general, we find that GOME-2A total
ozone data depict the QBO–ENSO–NAO natural fluctuations in concurrence with the co-located solar backscatter ultravi olet radiometer (SBUV), GOME-type Total Ozone Essential Climate Variable (GTO-ECV; composed of total ozone ob servations from GOME, SCIAMACHY – SCanning Imag ing Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartogra phY, GOME-2A, and OMI – ozone monitoring instrument, combined into one homogeneous time series), and ground based observations. Total ozone from GOME-2A is well cor related with the QBO (highest correlation in the tropics of +0.8) in agreement with SBUV, GTO-ECV, and GB data which also give the highest correlation in the tropics. The
differences between deseazonalized GOME-2A and GB to tal ozone in the tropics are within ±1 %. These differences were tested further as to their correlations with the QBO.....publishedVersio
NorgesGruppen
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Wholesale, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Sustainable Edge: Exploring green shading for companies
Get PDFDespite the importance of finance in driving the green economic transition, it is not easy for investors to analyze the degree of sustainability and climate risk exposure of their portfolios – and to fully exploit the value creation potential associated with companies providing sustainable solutions.
The aim of our feasibility study is to provide a starting point for a methodology that gives investors and public authorities a practical tool for understanding climate risk and which companies are best situated to contribute to the low-carbon, climate resilient future. Our method is based on the CICERO Shades of Green methodology which allocates a shade of green to activities depending on how well the investment is aligned with a low-carbon, climate resilient future. We have taken an iterative approach to methodology development with the involvement of financial sector partners and engagement with companies to guide our process. A key strength of this methodology lies in the facilitation of a dialogue between investors and companies to understand how green the companies are and to track their progress in aligning with a low carbon and climate resilient future.
We found that the methodology is robust across the small sample of companies analyzed in this preliminary study. Further development and testing is required to advance the methodology and approach. The feasibility study also identified key challenges, the foremost of them data availability and data quality. Going forward, the key challenge will be to move from a qualitative to more data-driven, quantitative approach.
The feasibility study is a starting point for discussion and further development and not yet a conclusive analysis. While the method has potential, the analysis presented in this report should be viewed as illustrative and not a conclusive view on the companies analyzed. The next phase of development would include testing the method against a larger pool of companies, developing sector benchmarks and will be to incorporate quantitative aspects into our qualitative approachpublishedVersio
The Hidden Hazard of Household Air Pollution in Rural China
Get PDFAir pollution in Chinese cities has become a major topic of public debate and political concern. At the same time, few rural areas are subjected to measurements of ambient air quality, and policy documents and media rarely discuss the health and environmental risks caused by household air pollution (HAP) produced by the use of biomass for cooking and heating. Between 2014 and 2017 a cross-disciplinary team carried out a joint study of air quality and perceptions of air pollution in one of China’s richest provinces, Zhejiang. We found that the ambient PM2.5 concentration in the rural villages was similar to that in the urban areas. Moreover, the 24-hour mean personal exposure to particulate pollution (PM2.5) was similar for urban and rural participants in total. However, we found indications of enhanced exposure levels in certain sub-groups, such as biomass users, women, and family cooks. We found that while villagers were strongly concerned about risks of air pollution coming from nearby factories, they were largely unaware of the problem of HAP. In this article, we analyse to what extent HAP contributes to the air pollution exposure in the areas studied, and we discuss possible reasons why it has largely remained a hidden hazard. In the conclusion, we suggest that air pollution in rural areas should receive more attention from media, environmental organizations and policy makers; furthermore, that HAP in particular should be incorporated into air pollution policies to a greater extent, and its contribution to air pollution exposure in rural areas be made more publicly known.acceptedVersio
Asking the right questions in adaptation research and practice: Seeing beyond climate impacts in rural Nepal
Get PDFAdaptation research and practice too often overlooks the wider social context within which climate change is experienced. Mainstream approaches frame adaptation problems in terms of the consequences that flow from biophysical impacts and as a result, we argue, ask the wrong questions. A complementary approach gaining ground in the field, foregrounding the social, economic and political context, reveals differentiation in adaptation need, and how climate impacts interconnect with wider processes of change. In this paper, we illustrate how this kind of approach frames a different set of questions about adaptation using the case of Nepal. Drawing on fieldwork and a review of literature, we contrast the questions that emerge from adaptation research and practice that take climate risk as a starting point with the questions that emerge from examination of contemporary rural livelihoods. We find that while adaptation efforts are often centred around securing agricultural production and are predicated on climate risk management, rural livelihoods are caught in a wider process of transformation. The numbers of people involved in farming are declining, and households are experiencing the effects of rising education, abandonment of rural land, increasing wages, burgeoning mechanisation, and high levels of migration into the global labour market. We find the epistemological framing of adaptation too narrow to account for these changes, as it understands the experiences of rural communities through the lens of climate risk. We propose that rather than seeking to integrate local understandings into a fixed, impacts-orientated epistemology, it is necessary to premise adaptation on an epistemology capable of exploring how change occurs. Asking the right questions thus means opening up adaptation by asking: ‘what are the most significant changes taking place in people's lives?’, along with the more standard: ‘what are the impacts of climate change?’ Viewing adaptation as occurring between and within these two perspectives has the potential to reveal new vulnerabilities and opportunities for adaptation practice to act upon.Asking the right questions in adaptation research and practice: Seeing beyond climate impacts in rural NepalpublishedVersio
Nordmenn og deling: Deskriptive resultater fra spørreundersøkelse i prosjektet ShareOn
Get PDFProsjektet ShareOn er et samarbeidprosjekt hvor både forskningsmiljøer, offentlige aktører, næringsaktører og idédrevne (ideelle) organisasjoner deltar. Prosjektet belyser deling som strategi i omstillingen til lavutslippssamfunnet. Denne rapporten gir en oversikt over deskriptive resultater fra en spørreundersøkelse gjort i prosjektet. Undersøkelsen ser på nordmenns delingspraksiser og oppfatninger om deling. Prosjektet ferdigstilles våren 2020publishedVersio
The state of tracking financial flows under the Paris Agreement - A primer for policy makers in India
Get PDFThe 21st Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in 2015 saw international consensus on climate action through the adoption of the Paris Agreement. Article 9 focuses on mobilization and disclosure of climate finance. Drafting the rules for climate finance reporting has remained a contentious issue that has created a divide between developed and developing countries.
According to data compiled by UNFCCC, the face value of climate finance flows from developed to developing countries was at 75 billion USD in 2016. Developed and developing countries have, at times taken quite different views on definitions and best practices for categorizing and tracking climate finance. For example, a 2015 OECD and Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) report estimated climate finance from developed to developing countries at 62 billion USD in 2014. This estimate was strongly contested by an Indian report, which countered that new and additional finance was limited to 2.2 billion USD. This report argued that the methodologies used by OECD and CPI are inconsistent and lack transparency, with no independent verification or consultations with the developing country parties. This exchange sheds light on some of the key challenges faced by stakeholders hoping to track and report on climate finance.
With this context, the report aims to draw out some of the major challenges faced in tracking climate finance flows and discuss the major arguments in favour and against different positions, put in an Indian context. The report tries to compile this overview with the hope that it serves as a useful reference for government, policy makers and climate finance experts on recent developments and barriers for tracking climate finance.publishedVersio
Hva kan Parisavtalen bety for Østfoldregionen? En utslippsanalyse
Get PDF: Klima Østfold har gjennom Østfold Fylkeskommune gitt CICERO Senter for klimaforskning i oppdrag å analysere hva Parisavtalen kan bety for klimagassutslippene i Østfoldregionen og Østfolds kommuner. Et av hovedpunktene er å holde økningen i den globale gjennomsnittstemperaturen godt under 2°C over førindustrielt nivå, og tilstrebe å begrense temperaturøkningen til 1,5°C over førindustrielt nivå. Et annet mål er at i andre halvpart av århundret skal det være en balanse i utslippene, noe vi beskriver som netto null utslipp. Vi har valgt å bruke resultater og funn fra klimapanelets spesialrapport om 1,5°C til å tallfeste framtidige utslipp i Østfold og Østfolds kommuner. Gitt noen antagelser går vi fra det globale til det lokale, eller fra Paris til Østfolds kommuner. I denne rapporten presenterer vi en analyse av klimagassutslipp som forekommer i Østfold (direkte utslipp), med utgangspunkt i den statistikken Miljødirektoratet publiserte i 2018. Parisavtalen og spesialrapporten sier ingenting spesifikt om hvordan de globale målene skal brytes ned på regionale og lokale nivåer. Likevel er det en del overordnede målsetninger, trender og tiltak som er relevante for Østfold. Omstilling er nødvendig og det haster. For å begrense oppvarmingen til et visst nivå, slik som 1,5 °C eller 2 °C, må de globale utslippene av CO2 ned til null. Hvis vi slipper ut mer i første del av århundret, må utslippskuttene være større senere, eller motsatt. Hvis det slippes ut mer CO2 enn hva det er plass til innenfor et temperaturmål, må CO2 tas ut av atmosfæren, altså negative utslipp. Brukere av denne rapporten må ta innover seg at det er usikkerhet og utfallsrommet er stort.publishedVersio
Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur
Get PDFThe profound changes in global SO2 emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and Europe. Europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and East Asia. The uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. The agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget.publishedVersio
Global carbon budget 2019
Get PDFAccurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).publishedVersio