CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Fairness conceptions and self-determined mitigation ambition under the Paris Agreement: Is there a relationship?
Get PDFThis paper investigates the empirical relationship between countries’ expressed concerns with fairness and the ambition levels in their pledged contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, asking the following questions: 1) Are the NDCs of countries who express the most concern with fairness more or less ambitious than those of other countries? 2) Does the relationship between fairness and ambition vary across the three fairness principles: Responsibility, Capability, and Rights (needs)? and 3) Is there a tendency for countries to support the fairness principle that implies the largest emissions share for themselves if that principle were used to allocate emissions across countries? The analysis reveals considerable variation in both fairness concerns and assessed NDC ambitions, but no clear relationship between the two. Countries’ expressed support for fairness principles does not correlate with the ambition levels of their NDCs, whether principles are aggregated or disaggregated. The analysis also finds no evidence that countries strategically advocate the fairness principle that allocates them the largest “fair” emissions share.acceptedVersio
Moving Towards Electrification of Workers’ Transportation: Identifying Key Motives for the Adoption of Electric Vans
Get PDFThe large-scale diffusion of low-emission vehicles is required to increase the sustainability
of the transport system. Statistics show strong and continued growth in the sales of electric and other
low-emission vehicles in the passenger car market. The commercial market, however, has thus far
been a different story, despite the fact that vans and other utility vehicles constitute an increasing
share of total road traffic and emissions. The present study investigates the potential for increasing
the adoption of electric vans (e-vans) among small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Data
gathered in a web survey of 264 SME managers show that 25% of the managers expressed intentions
to adopt e-vans within the next two years and another 27% within the next five years. Results from
logistic regressions show that a combination of attributes related to the vehicle, the firm and the
firm-environment relationships drives adoption intentions. Costs and vehicle reliability are typically
important drivers of commercial vehicle purchases. E-vans, however, bring symbolic features into the
decision process since they are seen as a measure to improve the green legitimacy of the enterprise.
Various measures relevant to manufacturers/dealers and policy makers to stimulate the adoption of
e-vans are discussed.publishedVersio
Institutional and environmental effectiveness: Will the Paris Agreement work?
Get PDFThe 2015 Paris Agreement (PA) has been widely hailed as a diplomatic triumph and a breakthrough in global climate cooperation. However, it is commonly accepted that the PA's collective goal—keeping global warming “well below” 2°C above preindustrial levels—remains ambitious. Making matters even more challenging, in 2017, global CO2 emissions resumed growth after 3 years of near standstill. In 2018, this growth accelerated. It is therefore extremely important that the PA's institutional architecture meet expectations concerning its ability to induce member countries to promise and deliver emissions reductions. This study offers a review of the rapidly growing literature on the PA, to assess its strengths and weaknesses, its significance, and its prospects. We focus on evaluations of its institutional structure and its ability to induce member countries to implement policies. We frame the issues as a trilemma: the challenge of simultaneously satisfying all three main conditions for effectiveness—broad participation, deep commitments, and satisfactory compliance rates. Based on our review, we conclude that the key challenge for the PA will likely be to facilitate sufficiently fast ratcheting-up of nationally determined contributions, while keeping compliance rates high.submittedVersio
Adapting Accountability and Emerging Challenges: Contracting-out in the Transport Sector in Switzerland, Norway and Sweden
Get PDFGovernment reforms such as contracting-out continue to influence public service provision within infrastructure sectors. Contracting-out involves a detachment of the operators from political decision-making and the creation of intermediary procurement agencies. These reforms therefore tend to require an adaptation of how accountability is implemented. Previously, elected officials delegated their democratic authority (vested in them through public votes) to the public administration and thus more or less controlled service delivery. We address how accountability has been adapted in the context of contracting-out and the challenges that have emerged. We are primarily interested in assessing the ability of the political body to maintain control and the relationship between private service providers, citizens and customers. Using a multiple case study design, we select cases from the public transport sectors at the regional level in Sweden, Norway and Switzerland that represent different contracting-out models. We find that with increasing degrees of autonomy from the state (the two Nordic cases) there are both more adaptations to accountability and also more challenges emerge than the model with direct political control (the Swiss case). The central challenges arise between political- administrative and agency accountability with the involvement of a procurement agency. This has led to reforms to re-integrate the intermediary procurement agencies back into the country administration.publishedVersio
Hva sier 1,5-gradersrapporten om lavutslippsomstilling for Vestfold?
Get PDFVestfold fylkeskommune har gitt CICERO Senter for klimaforskning i oppdrag å sammenstille resultater og funn fra klimapanelets spesialrapport om 1,5 °C som kan være særlig relevant for fylkeskommunen og dens kommuners klimaarbeid. Et av hovedfunnene fra spesialrapporten er at for å begrense oppvarming til 1,5 °C, må klimagassutslippene reduseres med 40-50 % innen 2030 sammenlignet med 2010-nivå, og være «netto-null» innen 2050, altså at det fjernes like mye CO2 fra atmosfæren som det slippes ut. Vestfold fylkeskommune kan spille en rolle i arbeidet med å begrense global oppvarming. Rapporten tar opp tiltak for omstilling innenfor styring og organisering, transport, industri, karbonfangst og -lagring, jordbruk, byggeaktivitet og infrastruktur, bioenergi, oppvarming, avfall og avløp og indirekte utslipppublishedVersio
The climate spiral demonstrates the power of sharing creative ideas
Get PDFGraphical visualisations have the potential to engage diverse audiences in understanding the changes to our climate, especially when spread worldwide using both traditional and social media. The animated global temperature spiral was one of the first climate graphics to ‘go viral’, being viewed by millions of people online and by more than a billion people when it was used in the Opening Ceremony of the 2016 Rio Olympics. The idea, design and communication aspects that led to the successes of this animated graphic are discussed, highlighting the benefits to scientists of engaging actively online and openly sharing their creative ideas.The climate spiral demonstrates the power of sharing creative ideaspublishedVersio
Parisavtalens konsekvenser for klimagassutslipp i nye Viken fylke
Get PDFAkershus fylkeskommune har gitt CICERO Senter for klimaforskning i oppdrag å analysere Parisavtalens konsekvenser for klimagassutslipp i nye Viken fylke og relatere dette til FNs bærekraftmål. I tillegg oppsummerer vi konsekvenser av klimaendringer i Viken. Parisavtalen er en avtale vedtatt i desember 2015 på klimatoppmøtet i Paris. Et av hovedpunktene er å holde økningen i den globale gjennomsnittstemperaturen godt under 2 °C over førindustrielt nivå, og tilstrebe å begrense temperaturøkningen til 1,5 °C over førindustrielt nivå. Spesialrapporten finner at de globale utslippene må reduseres med 40-50 % innen 2030 sammenlignet med 2010-nivå for å begrense den globale oppvarmingen til 1,5 °C. I tillegg ventes utslipp å være «netto-null» innen 2050. I rapporten ser vi på sammenhenger mellom klimamål i spesialrapporten med FNs bærekraftmål vedtatt høsten 2017. Totalt består dette av 17 mål som ser miljø, økonomi og sosial utvikling i sammenheng. Det er en rekke sammenhenger på tvers mellom klimatiltak, klimatilpasning og bærekraftmålene. Disse koblingene gir både positive og negative effekter, som kalles synergier og avveininger i denne rapporten. Ingen av utslippsbanene som er konsistente med 1,5 °C klarer å oppfylle alle de 17 bærekraftmålene samtidig. Dette skyldes at det er vanskelig. Til slutt oppsummerer vi fra tidligere rapporter hva som er konsekvenser av klimaendringer i Norge og hvilke tiltak som gir lavutslippsomstilling som er overførbart til Vike
Assessment of carbon effects from two projects from the Rainforest Foundation Norway’s programme portfolio
Get PDFThe Rainforest Foundation Norway (RFN) has commissioned CICERO to do a project on the carbon effects of two REDD+ projects as a literature study. The two sites are found in Indonesia and Colombia. We have assessed carbon densities and carbon stocks. Further, we have assessed how different hypothetical storylines could lead to different CO2 emissions at the two sites. The last part of the report is an assessment and proposal of methods that RFN can utilize to quantify the greenhouse gas effects of future projects. We have based our carbon stock and potential carbon emission estimates on datasets from Global Forest WatchpublishedVersio
The Role of Carbon Capture and Storage in the Mitigation of Climate Change
Get PDFScenario analysis clearly indicates that CCS is a critical technology in Paris consistent ‘well below 2°C’ scenarios. While the optimal deployment of CCS will be debated, the literature is clear that CCS is needed at a large-scale. Scenarios show CCS plays a key role in the power sector and industry, on fossil fuels and bioenergy, and in all world regions. The design of the Paris Agreement around five-yearly cycles to raise ambition is likely to lead to lower and uncertain carbon prices and thereby discourage the deployment of CCS. To ensure that CCS is deployed at the necessary scale, and to make a meaningful contribution to the Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2°C’ goal, it is likely innovative government support for CCS is necessary to operate in parallel to conventional climate policies.publishedVersio
