CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Overordnet analyse av konsekvenser av klimaendringer på natur og samfunn i Rogaland
Get PDFRogaland fylkeskommune har gitt et konsortium av Vestlandforsking, CICERO Senter for klimaforskning, NORCE og MET i oppdrag å utrede konsekvenser av klimaendringer på natur og samfunn i Rogaland – utfordringer, muligheter og prioriteringer. Miljødirektoratet støtter dette prosjektet økonomisk. Denne rapporten svarer ut del 1 av prosjektet, som er en overordnet analyse av konsekvenser av klimaendringer på natur og samfunn i Rogaland. Denne rapporten bygger i stor grad på en nylig sammenstilling gjort for Miljødirektoratet på klimakonsekvenser i Norge supplert med nyere forskning. Ved en vurdering av klimatilpasning er det vanlig å bruke føre-var prinsippet, altså at man legger de mest dramatiske klimaendringene til grunn. Derfor presenterer vi klimaendringer i Rogaland basert på en høy utslippsbane. For andre typer klimarelatert risiko kan andre utslippsbaner være naturlig å velge, slik som en svært lav utslippsbane for omstillingsrisiko gitt føre-var prinsippet. Klimaendringene vil utsette natur og samfunn i Rogaland for store og komplekse endringer. For nedbørsepisoder på under en time og som skjer sjeldnere enn hvert 50. år, vil veksten i intensiteten være 50 %. Overvann er den klimarelaterte enkeltskaden som gir størst kostnader i Rogaland. Havnivåstigningen vil føre til at vi i Stavanger kan forvente en 200-års stormflo skjer årlig fra 2070 og en 1000-års stormflo årlig fra 2080publishedVersio
Statnett
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Energy, Issuer type: Corporate, Shading: Dark GreenpublishedVersio
Contributions of Nordic anthropogenic emissions on air pollution and premature mortality over the Nordic region and the Arctic
Get PDFThis modeling study presents the sectoral contributions of anthropogenic emissions in the four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) on air pollution levels and the associated health impacts and costs over the Nordic and the Arctic regions for the year 2015. The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) has been used on a 50 km resolution over Europe in tagged mode in order to calculate the response of a 30 % reduction of each emission sector in each Nordic country individually. The emission sectors considered in the study were energy production, non-industrial/commercial heating, industry, traffic, off-road mobile sources and waste management/agriculture. In total, 28 simulations were carried out. Following the air pollution modeling, the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) model has been used to calculate the associated premature mortality and their costs. Results showed that more than 80 % of the PM2.5 concentration was attributed to transport from outside these four countries, implying an effort outside the Nordic region in order to decrease the pollutant levels over the area. The leading emission sector in each country was found to be non-industrial combustion (contributing by more than 60 % to the total PM2.5 mass coming from the country itself), except for Sweden, where industry contributed to PM2.5 with a comparable amount to non-industrial combustion. In addition to non-industrial combustion, the next most important source categories were industry, agriculture and traffic. The main chemical constituent of PM2.5 concentrations that comes from the country itself is calculated to be organic carbon in all countries, which suggested that non-industrial wood burning was the dominant national source of pollution in the Nordic countries. We have estimated the total number of premature mortality cases due to air pollution to be around 4000 in Denmark and Sweden and around 2000 in Finland and Norway. These premature mortality cases led to a total cost of EUR 7 billion in the selected Nordic countries. The assessment of the related premature mortality and associated cost estimates suggested that non-industrial combustion, together with industry and traffic, will be the main sectors to be targeted in emission mitigation strategies in the future.publishedVersio
SBAB Group
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Banking, Issuer type: Financial Institution, Shading: Medium GreenpublishedVersio
Energy security concerns versus market harmony: The Europeanisation of capacity mechanisms
Get PDFThe impact of renewables on the energy markets–falling wholesale electricity prices and lower investment stability–are apparently creating a shortage of energy project financing, which in future could lead to power supply shortages. Govern ments have responded by introducing payments for capacity, alongside payments for energy being sold. The increasing use of capacity mechanisms (CMs) in the EU has created tensions between the European Commission, which encour ages cross-country cooperation, and Member States that favour backup solutions such as capacity markets and strategic reserves. We seek to trace the influence of the European Commission on national capacity markets as well as learning between Member States. Focusing on the United Kingdom, France and Poland, the analysis shows that energy security concerns have been given more emphasis than the functioning of markets by Member States. Policy developments have primarily been domestically driven, but the European Commission has managed to impose certain elements, most im portantly a uniform methodology to assess future supply security, as well as specific requirements for national capacity markets: interconnectors to neighbouring countries, demand side responses and continuous revision of CMs. Learning from other Member States’ experiences also play a role in policy decisions.publishedVersio
BVOC-aerosol-climate feedbacks investigated using NorESM
Get PDFBoth higher temperatures and increased CO2 con centrations are (separately) expected to increase the emis sions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). This has been proposed to initiate negative climate feedback mechanisms through increased formation of secondary or ganic aerosol (SOA). More SOA can make the clouds more reflective, which can provide a cooling. Furthermore, the in crease in SOA formation has also been proposed to lead to in creased aerosol scattering, resulting in an increase in diffuse radiation. This could boost gross primary production (GPP) and further increase BVOC emissions. In this study, we have used the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) to in vestigate both these feedback mechanisms. Three sets of ex periments were set up to quantify the feedback with respect to (1) doubling the CO2, (2) increasing temperatures corre sponding to a doubling of CO2 and (3) the combined effect of both doubling CO2 and a warmer climate. For each of these
experiments, we ran two simulations, with identical setups, except for the BVOC emissions. One simulation was run with interactive BVOC emissions, allowing the BVOC emissions to respond to changes in CO2 and/or climate. In the other simulation, the BVOC emissions were fixed at present-day
conditions, essentially turning the feedback off. The compar ison of these two simulations enables us to investigate each step along the feedback as well as estimate their overall rele vance for the future climate.....publishedVersio
Byvekstavtaler i et flernivåperspektiv: helhetlig styringsverktøy med demokratiske utfordringer
Get PDFProsjektet «Byvekstavtaler som redskap for bærekraftig bo-, areal- og transportutvikling» har som formål å studere byvekstavtalenes potensial for å oppnå en bærekraftig bo-, areal- og transportutvikling. CICERO Senter for klimaforskning (prosjektleder) har sammen med Transportøkonomisk Institutt, og By- og regionforskningsinstituttet NIBR ved OsloMet, samt brukerpartnere og internasjonale forskningspartnere studert tre av de ni byområdene som omfattes av byvekstavtaleordningen; Trondheim, Oslo og Akershus og Nord- Jæren. Rapporten viser at byvekstavtalene er et fleksibelt verktøy med potensial til å øke koordinering mellom partene innen samferdsel og areal. Byvekstavtalekonseptet står imidlertid overfor flere utfordringer som må løses dersom avtalene skal fungere som et virkemiddel for helhetlig bo-, areal- og transportutvikling, hvor demokratisk forankring og legitimitet av avtalene, maktdimensjoner mellom partene og sektorer som er involvert, og muligheter for tilpasning til lokalt kontekst er noen av disse.publishedVersio
Institutional and environmental effectiveness: Will the Paris Agreement work?
Get PDFThe 2015 Paris Agreement (PA) has been widely hailed as a diplomatic triumph and a breakthrough in global climate cooperation. However, it is commonly accepted that the PA's collective goal—keeping global warming “well below” 2°C above preindustrial levels—remains ambitious. Making matters even more challenging, in 2017, global CO2 emissions resumed growth after 3 years of near standstill. In 2018, this growth accelerated. It is therefore extremely important that the PA's institutional architecture meet expectations concerning its ability to induce member countries to promise and deliver emissions reductions. This study offers a review of the rapidly growing literature on the PA, to assess its strengths and weaknesses, its significance, and its prospects. We focus on evaluations of its institutional structure and its ability to induce member countries to implement policies. We frame the issues as a trilemma: the challenge of simultaneously satisfying all three main conditions for effectiveness—broad participation, deep commitments, and satisfactory compliance rates. Based on our review, we conclude that the key challenge for the PA will likely be to facilitate sufficiently fast ratcheting-up of nationally determined contributions, while keeping compliance rates high.submittedVersionacceptedVersio
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change
Get PDFClarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming is
important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large
ensembles of 2 °C and 1.5 °C warming simulations. In the 2 °C runs, we find substantial increases in
extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress.
For example, about half of the world’s population is projected to experience a present day 1-in-10 year
hot day event every other year at 2 °C warming. The regions with relatively large increases of these four
hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO2 emissions, low-income and high
vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, compared to 2 °C, is projected to lower increases in
the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.publishedVersio
What relevant information do the integrated assessment models and scenarios from the 1.5 °C special report provide for Norway?
Get PDFThe Norwegian Environment Agency (Miljødirektoratet) has requested a report to “get more detailed and nationally policy relevant information about the IAM-scenarios assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 1.5 °C global warming, and key features and assumptions in the modelling frameworks.” We present information for scenarios consistent with 1.5°C and 2°C, but avoid scenarios with large-scale bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (as requested). Among the topics discussed in this report are emission pathways, carbon price trajectories, deployment of negative emission technologies, land use change, investment needs, deployment of key abatement options, demand for primary energy and base materials, portfolio of abatement options, and scenarios. The starting point is the emission scenario database linked to the special report on global warming of 1.5 °C. However, not all information asked for by the Norwegian Environment Agency is available in the scenarios database or produced by integrated assessment models. The emission scenarios are integrated pathways (trajectories over time) developed by global integrated assessment models that represent key societal systems and their interactions, such as the energy system, agriculture, land use, and the economy. Emission scenarios consistent with 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming are very demanding as these targets require large-scale transformations of society and its systems, including how energy is produced, how agricultural systems are organized, and how food, energy, and materials are consumed. Some aspects of all the scenarios can be considered as unrealistic, very difficult, or in conflict with other societal objectives. Some models cannot reach ambitious climate targets, particularly 1.5°C. Accompanied with this report, we also produce large Excel documents with numerous sheets and figures on the topics discussed herepublishedVersio