CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Evaluation of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble for climate extreme indices
Get PDFThis study evaluates global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for their performance in simulating the climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). We compare global climatology patterns of the indices simulated by the CMIP6 models with those from HadEX3 and four reanalysis datasets and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble using root-mean-square errors for the 1981–2000 period. Regional evaluations are conducted for 41 sub-regions, defined for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. In particular, regional mean biases are analyzed for the 20-year return values (20RV) of the warmest day and coldest night temperatures (TXx and TNn) and annual maximum of daily precipitation (RX1day) using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) analysis. Results show that the CMIP6 models generally capture the observed global and regional patterns of temperature extremes with limited improvements compared to the CMIP5 models. Systematic biases like a cold bias in cold extremes over high-latitude regions remain even in stronger amplitudes. The CMIP6 model skills for the precipitation intensity and frequency indices are also largely comparable to those of CMIP5 models, but precipitation intensity simulations are found to be improved with reduced dry biases. The GEV analysis results indicate that the regional biases in 20RV of temperature extremes are dominated by GEV location parameter (related to mean intensity) with relatively small contribution from GEV scale/shape parameters (related to interannual variability). CMIP6-simulated 20RV of RX1day is characterized by dry biases over the tropics and subtropical rain band areas, as in the CMIP5 models, for which biases in both GEV location and scale/shape parameters are important.publishedVersio
Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions
Get PDFBackground: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers. Objective: The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions. Methods: An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies. Results: The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting. Discussion: This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745publishedVersio
Climate and Biodiversity Strategies and Current Commitments
No full textThis chapter of the 2020 Report of the FABLE Consortium Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems outlines how sustainable food and land-use systems can contribute to raising climate ambition, aligning climate mitigation and biodiversity protection policies, and achieving other sustainable development priorities in Norway. It presents two pathways for food and land-use systems for the period 2020–2050: Current Trends and Sustainable. These pathways examine the trade-offs between achieving the FABLE Targets under limited land availability and constraints to balance supply and demand at national and global levels. We developed these pathways and modeled them with the FABLE Calculator (Mosnier, Penescu, Thomson, and Perez-Guzman, 2019). See Annex 1 for more details on the adaptation of the model to the national context.publishedVersio
Physical climate risk: Investor needs and information gaps
Get PDFWhile investors are paying more attention to climate change, there is a lack of granular data designed to support financial decisions. Climate science can provide improved indicators and metrics to help investors better manage physical climate risks. This report presents the first results of the ERA4CS-JPI Climate project ClimINVEST aimed at co-designing tailored information on climate change. We provide an overview of investors’ needs and information gaps regarding the physical impacts of climate change. We identify the information sources that financial actors rely on and the challenges they face in decision-making incorporating available climate change information while taking into account diverse investor mandates and risk management approaches. The user needs identified underscore the need for collaborative efforts between researchers and the financial sector on improving climate risk information.
The report presents three geographical case studies – France, the Netherlands and Norway. These countries are at the forefront of creating awareness and acting on the risks and opportunities of the physical impacts of climate change in the financial sector. The cases provide unique perspectives on the country-specific contexts and initiatives related to physical climate risk and user needs, featuring both commonalities and differences.
In France, the 2015’s Energy Transition for Green Growth Act (Article 173-VI) requires institutional investors to report on their integration of climate-related risks in their investment policies. In the Netherlands, the Dutch Central Bank and financial institutions are challenged to deal with potential flood risks from more frequent precipitation and sea level rise. In Norway, actors such as Finance Norway and the Norwegian government are assessing the risks from physical impacts of climate change on the Norwegian economypublishedVersio
Klimagassutslipp fra norsk mat
Get PDFKlimagassutslippene knyttet til mat er rapportert til å stå for omtrent 25% av de globale utslippene. Men hvor stor rolle spiller matrelaterte utslipp i Norge, i husholdninger og på nasjonalt nivå? Denne rapporten er utformet av CICERO på oppdrag fra Orkla Foods Norge og har til hensikt å informere samfunnsaktører, konsumenter og næringer på en lettfattelig måte om den relative mengden av utslipp som er knyttet til mat. Rapporten presenterer resultater fra litteraturen angående utslipp av forskjellige typer norsk mat, hvor stor rolle matrelaterte utslipp spiller i norske husholdninger, og hvor stor rolle de spiller på nasjonalt nivå. Rapporten gir et overordnet bilde, men går ikke i dybden på alle detaljer og gir ikke en fullstendig gjennomgang av den tilgjengelige vitenskapelige litteraturen på temaet. Alle tall er hentet fra publisert forskning eller er beregninger der tallene fra forskjellige publikasjoner blir koblet sammen. Det anmodes om forsiktighet ved bruk av tallene ettersom det er stor variasjon i utslippstall fra forskjellige matprodukter, mellom ulike studier, i antagelser og metoder, og i ulike typer husholdninger.
Vi konkluderer med at matproduksjonen i Norge utgjør rundt 8,5% av vår nasjonale utslipp, hvorav det meste er koblet til husdyrhold. Mat er den tredje største utslippskilden og utgjør i snitt rundt 14% av norske husholdningsutslipp når restaurantbesøk er ekskludert. Utslippene varierer med inntektsnivå og om man inkluderer restaurantbesøk. Animalske produkter utgjør rundt 80% av konsumutslippene til mat. Kjøtt utgjør rundt 12% av den totale mengden mat nordmenn spiser, men står for hele 46% av matutslippene. Kjøtt fra storfe og småfe utgjør omtrent 4% av den totale årlige engros matmengden nordmenn konsumerer, mens det står for 34% av utslippene.
Tiltak for å redusere forbruket av høyutslippsmat, endringer i produksjonsleddet for å redusere utslippene i eksisterende produksjon og tiltak for å legge om produksjonen i retning av mindre høyutslippsmat har til sammen et stort potensial for å bidra til utslippskutt og de nasjonale klimamålene.publishedVersio
Referansebane og framskrivning for Oslos klimagassutslipp mot 2030 - Revisjon mai 2019
Get PDFKlimaetaten i Oslo kommune gav i 2018 CICERO og TØI i oppdrag om å utarbeide en referansebane for Oslos klimagassutslipp for perioden 2017 til 2030. I 2019 fikk vi et nytt oppdrag for å oppdatere denne rapporten basert på ny og oppdatert statistikk. Dette arbeidet er basert på best tilgjengelig kunnskap om de driverne som vil påvirke klimagassutslippene fram til 2030. Å lage en referansebane er et forsøk på å lage et overslag om hvordan klimagassutslippene ville utvikle seg i en fiktiv framtid som neppe vil skje. Den er et overslag med betydelig usikkerhet, og kan kun gjenspeile de faktorene og antakelsene som er tatt med i beregningene. Den bør kun brukes som en indikasjon på hva som kan skje ved fravær av ytterligere klimatiltak, og bør ikke brukes som et utgangspunkt for å definere mål for utslippsreduksjoner. De framtidige utslippene i Oslo kvantifiserer vi gjennom et sentralestimat og nedre og øvre grense for et usikkerhetsintervall. Sentralestimatet er vårt beste estimat for hvordan utslippene i Oslo ville utvikle seg uten tiltakene nevnt over. Usikkerhetsintervallet framkommer gjennom ulike mulige antakelser og gjennom kvantifisert usikkerhet i grunnlagstallene, og representerer et intervall som samlede utslipp med høy sannsynlighet ville holde seg innenfor gitt antakelsene eller spennet av antakelser som ligger til grunn for referansebanen.
Den opprinnelige referansebanen ble publisert 7. september 2018 (med rettelser 2. oktober 2018) på grunnlag av kommunefordelt utslippsstatistikk fra Miljødirektoratet for 2009-2016, publisert i juni 2018. Miljødirektoratet publiserte ny utslippsstatistikk i april 2019, med utslipp for 2017 og enkelte revisjoner av utslippene for tidligere år. Denne rapporten inneholder en oppdatert versjon av den opprinnelige referansebanen, som omfatter den nye utslippsstatistikken og inneholder enkelte andre små justeringer, samt at referanseåret endres fra 2016 til 2017publishedVersio
Update and evaluation of the ozone dry deposition in Oslo CTM3 v1.0
Get PDFHigh concentrations of ozone in ambient air are hazardous not only to humans but to the ecosystem in general. The impact of ozone damage on vegetation and agricultural plants in combination with advancing climate change may affect food security in the future. While the future scenarios in themselves are uncertain, there are limiting factors constraining the accuracy of surface ozone modeling also at present: the distribution and amount of ozone precursors and ozone-depleting substances, the stratosphere–troposphere exchange, as well as scavenging processes. Removal of any substance through gravitational settling or by uptake by plants and soil is referred to as dry deposition. The process of dry deposition is important for predicting surface ozone concentrations and understanding the observed amount and increase of tropospheric background ozone. The conceptual dry deposition velocities are calculated following a resistance-analogous approach, wherein aerodynamic, quasi-laminar, and canopy resistance are key components, but these are hard to measure explicitly. We present an update of the dry deposition scheme implemented in Oslo CTM3. We change from a purely empirical dry deposition parameterization to a more process-based one which takes the state of the atmosphere and vegetation into account. We examine the sensitivity of the scheme to various parameters, e.g., the stomatal conductance-based description of the canopy resistance and the choice of ozone surface resistance, and evaluate the resulting modeled ozone dry deposition with respect to observations and multi-model studies. Individual dry deposition velocities are now available for each land surface type and agree generally well with observations. We also estimate the impact on the modeled ozone concentrations at the surface. We show that the global annual total ozone dry deposition decreases with respect to the previous model version (−37 %), leading to an increase in surface ozone of more than 100 % in some regions. While high sensitivity to changes in dry deposition to vegetation is found in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere, the largest impact on global scales is associated with the choice of prescribed ozone surface resistance over the ocean and deserts.publishedVersio
Physical modeling supporting a storyline approach
Get PDFThe concept of analyzing and communicating high-impact events in the climate change context via storylines has recently gained popularity in the climate modeling community. For instance, the use of case studies or storylines that could illustrate climate risk narratives has been discussed in the recent IPCC expert meeting for regional climate information (IPCC 2018a). This also calls for an expert discussion on challenges and best practices for the creation of credible storylines of high-impact weather or climate features using physical modeling and knowledge creation.
In April 2019, climate scientists came together at a workshop discussing physical modeling supporting a storyline approach. The workshop contributed to the implementation of the WCRP Strategic Plan 2019-2028, in support of innovation in the generation of decision-relevant information and knowledge about the evolving Earth system through the framework of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes. This report provides a summary of the outcomes from the workshop and recommendations for future application of storylines to physical aspects of climate changepublishedVersio
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk
Get PDFWhile every society can be exposed to heatwaves, some people suffer far less harm and recover more quickly than others from their occurrence. Here we project indicators of global heatwave risk associated with global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C, specified by the Paris agreement, for two future pathways of societal development representing low and high vulnerability conditions. Results suggest that at the 1.5 °C warming level, heatwave exposure in 2075 estimated for the population living in low development countries is expected to be greater than exposure at the warming level of 2 °C for the population living in very high development countries. A similar result holds for an illustrative heatwave risk index. However, the projected difference in heatwave exposure and the illustrative risk index for the low and very high development countries will be significantly reduced if global warming is stabilized below 1.5 °C, and in the presence of rapid social development.publishedVersio
Climate science for the financial sector: Managing climate risk in Norway and Sweden
Get PDFThe financial sector must prepare for a higher risk level associated with climate change impacts affecting real estate and infrastructure, as well as climate policies that will impact risk and returns from investments in various sectors.
Representatives from twenty financial institutions in Norway and Sweden have been interviewed on perceptions and management of climate change risks. The purpose was to map knowledge and perceptions, examine current management of climate-related risks and explore how risk management can be improved within these institutions.
Frequently only qualitative assessments of climate risk are made in the financial sector, because data are missing, or there is high uncertainty attached to the figures. Carbon footprint and energy use or intensity are the most common climate risk indicators, but these are insufficient measures to fully assess climate risk. Few institutions have made substantial changes in the organization of their business. Climate risk is often seen in a broader sustainability context, confer the focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance. The strategy and direction of a company towards more climate-friendliness and robustness is essential to evaluate its credibility and preparedness regarding climate risk. Climate risk also implies new business opportunities.
Currently most of the focus in the financial sector is on companies' disclosure of climate relevant information, since several uncertainties exist and there is no single answer to how climate risk should best be handled. More attention is given to developing a common language on what ‘green’ and ‘climate-friendly’ imply, but even more is needed.
The financial sector needs transparent and useable knowledge on climate change and related risks, both on the broad climate picture as well as the specific issues dependent on their business area. ‘Stress-testing’ an institution regarding risk from the transition to a low-emission society and the physical effects of climate change is a useful framing, where a set of possible futures can be used to assess an institution’s robustness. More learning and capacity building on climate risk are necessary, both in terms of organization and personnel of an institutionpublishedVersio