CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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The impacts of the EU ETS on Norwegian plants’ environmental and economic performance
Get PDFThis paper examines the impacts of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) on the environmental and economic performance of Norwegian plants. The ETS is regarded as the cornerstone climate policy in the EU and Norway, but there has been considerable debate regarding its effects due to low quota prices and substantial allocation of free allowances. The rich data allow us to investigate potential effects of the ETS on several important aspects of plant behavior. The results indicate a weak tendency of emissions reductions among Norwegian plants in the second phase of the ETS, but not in the other phases. We find no significant effects on emissions intensity in any of the phases, but positive effects on value added and productivity in the second phase. These positive effects may be due to the large amounts of free allowances, and that plants may have passed on additional marginal costs to consumers.acceptedVersio
Economic costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity due to global warming
Get PDFWe assess economic costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity at global scale under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Losses in worker productivity are calculated by using an empirically estimated epidemiological exposure-response function, and the associated economic costs are assessed by using a dynamic multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. Autonomous mechanisation of outdoor work in agriculture and construction is implemented in the model. We find that under RCP8.5 by 2100, heat-induced reductions in worker productivity result in an average decline of 1.4% in global gross domestic product (GDP) relative to the reference scenario with no climate change. This is approximately 0.4 percentage points less than when no autonomous mechanisation is assumed. For comparison, measuring the economic costs using occupational health and safety recommendations leads to a 2.4% reduction in global GDP, which is substantially larger than when the epidemiological exposure-response function is used. Countries of Africa, South-East Asia, and South Asia are the worst affected by heat stress. However, economic costs could be substantially alleviated if a 2°C global warming target is achieved. Under RCP2.6, the average reduction in global GDP is only 0.5%. A large fraction of global mitigation costs of achieving the 2°C global warming target could be offset by the avoided adverse impacts of heat stress on worker productivity at higher warming levels.acceptedVersio
Reducing the aerosol forcing uncertainty using observational constraints on warm rain processes
Get PDFGlobal climate models (GCMs) disagree with other lines of evidence on the rapid adjustments of cloud cover and liquid water path to anthropogenic aerosols. Attempts to use observations to constrain the parameterizations of cloud processes in GCMs have failed to reduce the disagreement. We propose using observations sensitive to the relevant cloud processes rather than only to the atmospheric state and focusing on process realism in the absence of aerosol perturbations in addition to the process susceptibility to aerosols. We show that process-sensitive observations of precipitation can reduce the uncertainty on GCM estimates of rapid cloud adjustments to aerosols. The feasibility of an observational constraint depends on understanding the precipitation intensity spectrum in both observations and models and also on improving methods to compare the two.publishedVersio
Learning to accept welfare‑enhancing policies: an experimental investigation of congestion pricing
No full textWelfare-enhancing policies such as congestion pricing are argued to improve efficiency in situations with externalities. Unfamiliarity and lack of any personal experience with such policies, however, can hinder their implementation; particularly the ex-ante uncertainties of incidences of gains and losses as well as debates regarding equity concerns and how to recycle revenues often stymies implementation. This paper employs a laboratory experiment with heterogeneous users to investigate the effectiveness and acceptability of a toll in a six-player-two-route congestion game. To measure acceptability and how it is affected by experience with the toll, we conduct referenda before, during, and after subjects experience a congestion problem and a toll. The experiment employs a 2×2 design that varies two treatments: the rate of revenue reallocation and the level of information before the final vote. After an experiential learning phase, congestion pricing is found to curb congestion effectively, and although some subjects do not vote in their monetary self-interest initially, the majority does so after experiencing the congestion pricing policy. Data on worldviews and beliefs are collected and matched to voting behavior to examine the evolution of how experience determines acceptability. Some worldviews and beliefs can predict voting behavior and the timing of when an individual finds a toll (un)acceptable.submittedVersio
Relationships between physical effects of climate change on forests and economic impacts by world region
Get PDFThis study projects the macroeconomic consequences of impacts of climate change on forests by world regions under the three Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 until 2100. It is based on assessments of the impacts of the mortality of trees in forest plantations in 27 countries. The forestry sectors in these country covers about 75 percent of the value of timber production in the world. To address the macroeconomic consequences, the estimated effects of climate change on forest mortality were generalized to 11 world regions, and implemented in the computable general equilibrium model GRACE, to address adaptation in the management of forests, resulting market effects and impacts on macroeconomic indicators. With few exceptions, climate change will lead to slower growth of forests in most regions, but there are large variations, which must be explained by other factors than the increase in temperature, such as an apparent dependency on changes in precipitation. The economic impacts are moderated substantially by an increase in the value of felled trees. While the felling is reduced on the world scale, the total value of the felling increases. Combined with the adaptation within the forestry sector, this leads to an even higher increase in the contributions to the gross domestic product from the forestry sectors on the world scalepublishedVersio
Moving small crafts and services enterprises towards green mobility practices: The role of change agents
Get PDFThe uptake of electric vans in professional enterprises has been slow, and the interest in electric mobility is low compared to that of private consumers. To understand critical barriers, resistance, motivations and drivers we follow the implementation of e-vans (EVs) in crafts and services enterprises that have tried to replace some or all of their traditional vans with EVs. Based on a social practice approach we show how and why the new technology challenged existing work practices in the enterprises, and took hold in some enterprises while being rejected in others. We recognize the significant role of managers as “agents of practice change” in initiating changes and stabilizing social practice configurations. The findings add to the literature on social practice change and document critical factors for further implementation and use of e-vans in crafts and services enterprises.submittedVersio
Cloudy-sky contributions to the direct aerosol effect
Get PDFThe radiative forcing of the aerosol–radiation interaction can be decomposed into clear-sky and cloudy-sky portions. Two sets of multi-model simulations within Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom), combined with observational methods, and the time evolution of aerosol emissions over the industrial era show that the contribution from cloudy-sky regions is likely weak. A mean of the simulations considered is 0.01±0.1 W m−2. Multivariate data analysis of results from AeroCom Phase II shows that many factors influence the strength of the cloudy-sky contribution to the forcing of the aerosol–radiation interaction. Overall, single-scattering albedo of anthropogenic aerosols and the interaction of aerosols with the short-wave cloud radiative effects are found to be important factors. A more dedicated focus on the contribution from the cloud-free and cloud-covered sky fraction, respectively, to the aerosol–radiation interaction will benefit the quantification of the radiative forcing and its uncertainty range.publishedVersio
Recruitment, Stabilization and Defection; Exploring Car Sharing Pathways of Young Urban Households
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A comparison of estimates of global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil carbon sources
Get PDFSince the first estimate of global CO2 emissions was published in 1894, important progress has been made in the development of estimation methods while the number of available datasets has grown. The existence of parallel efforts should lead to improved accuracy and understanding of emissions estimates, but there remains significant deviation between estimates and relatively poor understanding of the reasons for this. Here I describe the most important global emissions datasets available today and – by way of global, large-emitter, and case examples – quantitatively compare their estimates, exploring the reasons for differences. In many cases differences in emissions come down to differences in system boundaries: which emissions sources are included and which are omitted. With minimal work in harmonising these system boundaries across datasets, the range of estimates of global emissions drops to 5 %, and further work on harmonisation would likely result in an even lower range, without changing the data. Some potential errors were found, and some discrepancies remain unexplained, but it is shown to be inappropriate to conclude that uncertainty in emissions is high simply because estimates exhibit a wide range. While “true” emissions cannot be known, by comparing different datasets methodically, differences that result from system boundaries and allocation approaches can be highlighted and set aside to enable identification of true differences, and potential errors. This must be an important way forward in improving global datasets of CO2 emissions. Data used to generate Figs. 3–18 are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3687042 (Andrew, 2020).publishedVersio
Urbanization in megacities increases the frequency of extreme precipitation events far more than their intensity
Get PDFMore than half of the world's population lives in urban areas (UN Population Division 2018 The World's cities in 2018 (UN: New York)), which are especially vulnerable to climate extremes (Field et al 2012 Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)). Urbanization itself is known to increase surface temperatures, but its quantitative effect on extreme precipitation remains very uncertain. Using decadal convection-permitting climate simulations in four midlatitude megacities (Paris, France; New York City, USA; Tokyo, Japan; Shanghai, China), we show that urbanization can strongly increase the frequency and intensity of extreme urban precipitation. Frequency increases far more than intensity, by +16% (11%–22%) (95% confidence interval) for 1 year daily extremes, and +26% (11%–41%) for 1 year hourly extremes, downwind of city centers. Intensities of the same events increase by +5% (3.2%–6.4%) (daily extremes) and +6% (3.2%–9.8%) (hourly extremes), respectively. The intensity and frequency of extremes increases more for the rarest, most extreme events considered, and there is some indication that hourly extremes increase more than daily extremes. Our simulations also show that direct urban anthropogenic emissions of heat could be an important factor driving these changes. Urbanization is expected to continue in the future, and our results indicate that these effects should be considered in urban planning decisions to make cities more resilient to extreme precipitation.publishedVersio