CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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1083 research outputs found
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Possible Effects of Greenhouse Gases to Ozone Profiles and DNA Active UV-B Irradiance at Ground Level
Get PDFIn this paper, we compare model calculations of ozone profiles and their variability for the period 1998 to 2016 with satellite and lidar profiles at five ground-based stations. Under the investigation is the temporal impact of the stratospheric halogen reduction (chemical processes) and increase in greenhouse gases (i.e., global warming) on stratospheric ozone changes. Attention is given to the effect of greenhouse gases on ultraviolet-B radiation at ground level. Our chemistry transport and chemistry climate models (Oslo CTM3 and EMAC CCM) indicate that (a) the effect of halogen reduction is maximized in ozone recovery at 1–7 hPa and observed at all lidar stations; and (b) significant impact of greenhouse gases on stratospheric ozone recovery is predicted after the year 2050. Our study indicates that solar ultraviolet-B irradiance that produces DNA damage would increase after the year 2050 by +1.3% per decade. Such change in the model is driven by a significant decrease in cloud cover due to the evolution of greenhouse gases in the future and an insignificant trend in total ozone. If our estimates prove to be true, then it is likely that the process of climate change will overwhelm the effect of ozone recovery on UV-B irradiance in midlatitudes.publishedVersio
Bærekraftig matproduksjon - En diskursiv tilnærming til koordinering
Get PDFFremveksten av komplekse og grenseoverskridende utfordringer har økt nødvendigheten av samarbeid og koordinering på tvers av sektorielle linjer. I denne masteroppgaven kombineres en kritisk diskursanalyse med koordineringsteori for å utrede hvordan diskurser kan forhindre eller fremme koordinering av matpolitikk. En ‘bærekraftig matproduksjon’ forstås som en nødvendig strategi for å kunne øke matproduksjonen, sikre ernæringsmessige behov, begrense konflikter med ulike samfunnsinteresser, og møte kravet om en ‘grønn’ omstilling. Koordinering av målsettinger, hensyn og interesser, mellom politikkområder og styringsnivåer vil her være vesentlig.
Diskursive forståelser og ideer om ‘bærekraft’ i møte med klima, næring og ernæring identifiseres innenfor tre sektorer– jordbruk, miljø og helse – som hver er sammensatt av departement, direktorat og sentrale interesseorganisasjoner. Tre diskurser som i dag er rådende ved politikkutforming i Norge avklares, og analysen tar for seg hvordan disse er konstituert og brytes mot hverandre gjennom diskursiv praksis. ‘Bærekraft’ avdekkes som en flytende betegner med en nøkkelposisjon innen ulike diskurser. Aktørene enes om behovet for en ‘bærekraftig matproduksjon’, men har ulike perspektiver på hva en slik produksjon innebærer. Delte forståelser av ‘bærekraft’ innad i sektorene synes å forsterke sektoriell struktur.
Diskursers innvirkning på koordinering tydeliggjøres ved Klimakur, forstått som en koordineringsarena hvor aktørene møtes i politikkutforming. Forskjellige forståelser og ideer om ‘bærekraft’ har tydelige implikasjoner for koordinering. Koordineringen bærer preg av diskursive brytninger og kamp, mellom og innad i sektorene. En hegemonisk diskurs legger føringer for matpolitikken, ved å prege aktører på tvers av sektorer. Slike brytninger fører ved koordineringsarenaen til et felles ideasjonelt rammeverk som imøtekommer hensyn til klima og næring, og delvis hensyn til ernæring. Rammeverket møter motstand fra ulike aktører da det bryter med forankrede diskurser og ideer om matproduksjon. Aktørene enes om kompleksiteten ved konseptet ‘bærekraft’, og skaper gjennom et tvetydig språk mulighet for å legitimere forskjellige politiske posisjoner, som åpner for fravær av handling. Behovet for ytterligere studier av de betingelser som må være til stede for å utvikle en ‘bærekraftig matproduksjon’ tydeliggjøres, især et omforent og tverrsektorielt grunnlag og forståelse for hva ‘bærekraft’ i seg selv innebærer. En diskursiv tilnærming til koordinering ga større innsikt i barrierer og verktøy for koordinering, og hvilke hindre som må overkommes for å oppnå koordinering.publishedVersio
Changing climate change: The carbon budget and the modifying-work of the IPCC
Get PDFOver the last 10 years, the concept of a global ‘carbon budget’ of allowable CO2 emissions has become ubiquitous in climate science and policy. Since it was brought to prominence by the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, the carbon budget has changed how climate change is enacted as an issue of public concern, from determining the optimal rate of future emissions to establishing a fixed limit for how much emissions should be allowed before they must be stopped altogether. Exploring the emergence of the carbon budget concept, this article shows how the assessment process of the IPCC has offered scientific experts the means to modify how the climate issue is problematized, and discusses the implications of this ‘modifying-work’ for the politics of climate change. It finds that the ‘modified climate issue’ must be seen as an outcome of the ordinary work within established scientific and political institutions, and the agency these institutions afford scientists to enact the issue differently. On this basis, it argues that the case of the carbon budget holds important insights not only for the relationship between climate science and policy, but also for the pragmatist literature on ‘issue formation’ in STS.publishedVersio
Community acceptance of wind energy developments: Experience from wind energy scarce regions in Europe
Get PDFRenewable energy plays an important role in the transition to a low emission society, yet in many regions energy projects have resulted in increasing societal polarization. Based on a comprehensive literature review and a survey among stakeholders from specific regions in Germany, Italy, Latvia, Norway, Poland and Spain with little prior experience with wind energy, we highlight six categories of factors that shape community acceptance of onshore wind energy development: technical characteristics of wind energy projects, environmental impacts, economic impacts, societal impacts, contextual factors and individual characteristics. We identify key similarities in acceptance-related patterns of wind energy development across the selected regions, but also important differences, highlighting the very context-specific nature of community acceptance. The findings contribute to improving the understanding of the forces, factors and relationships at play between policy frameworks and perceptions of wind energy under different conditions. We conclude by proposing policy recommendations regarding measures to increase the positive impacts and reduce the negative impacts of wind energy projects, and to strengthen existing drivers and reduce barriers to community acceptance of wind energy developmentpublishedVersio
How aerosols and greenhouse gases influence the diurnal temperature range
Get PDFThe diurnal temperature range (DTR) (or difference between the maximum and minimum temperature within a day) is one of many climate parameters that affects health, agriculture and society. Understanding how DTR evolves under global warming is therefore crucial. Physically different drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, have distinct influences on global and regional climate. Therefore, predicting the future evolution of DTR requires knowledge of the effects of individual climate forcers, as well as of the future emissions mix, in particular in high-emission regions. Using global climate model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we investigate how idealized changes in the atmospheric levels of a greenhouse gas (CO2) and aerosols (black carbon and sulfate) influence DTR (globally and in selected regions). We find broad geographical patterns of annual mean change that are similar between climate drivers, pointing to a generalized response to global warming which is not defined by the individual forcing agents. Seasonal and regional differences, however, are substantial, which highlights the potential importance of local background conditions and feedbacks. While differences in DTR responses among drivers are minor in Europe and North America, there are distinctly different DTR responses to aerosols and greenhouse gas perturbations over India and China, where present aerosol emissions are particularly high. BC induces substantial reductions in DTR, which we attribute to strong modeled BC-induced cloud responses in these regions.publishedVersio
Hva innebærer FNs klimapanels spesialrapporter om landarealer, hav og is og Naturpanelets globale rapport for Oslo
Get PDFKlimaetaten i Oslo kommune har gitt CICERO Senter for klimaforskning og Norsk institutt for naturforskning (NINA) i oppdrag i å vurdere kunnskap fra rapporter fra FNs klimapanel (IPCC) og det internasjonale Naturpanelet (IPBES) og hva dette innebærer for Oslo. Fra klimapanelet kom det to spesialrapporter i 2019, en om klimaendringer og landarealer (Landrapporten) og en om klima, hav og is (Hav- og israpporten). Naturpanelet lanserte i 2019 sin globale rapport om biologisk mangfold og naturgoder. Vi har vurdert funnene i lys av Oslo kommunes strategier og planer, deriblant Byrådssak 214/19 “Oslo kommunes klimastrategi mot 2030”. Flere av hovedkonklusjonene i rapportene er allerede tatt opp i Oslo kommunes egne dokumenter og planer. Basert på funnene i de tre rapportene og tiltak/strategier Oslo allerede har iverksatt har vi identifisert områder det vil være fornuftig at Oslo fremover har et ekstra fokus på. Av alle de tre rapportene (Landrapporten, Hav- og israpporten og Naturpanelrapporten) kommer det klart frem at flere hensyn må sees i sammenheng hvis man skal oppnå en bærekraftig klima- og naturforvaltning. Arealkonflikter kan fort oppstå i forvaltningen av både bebygde områder og utmark, og det er ikke alltid opplagt hva som er den beste løsningen for både klima og natur. Det går også klart frem av rapportene at beslutninger for byplanlegging og infrastruktur som tas i dag må ta innover seg at klima og natur er i endring, og at tilpasning til denne mer usikre fremtiden bør gjøres allerede nå. For å nå sitt mål om å være en internasjonalt ledende miljøby kan Oslo derfor gjøre tiltak for å bevare biologisk mangfold og eksisterende karbonlagre, søke å gjenopprette tapt mangfold og karbonlagre, og samtidig utvikle byen til å være fleksibel og motstandsdyktig i møte med fremtidens vær og klima.publishedVersio
Assessment of the optimal rebound effects from energy intensity reduction
Get PDFEnergy efficiency improvement is widely recognized as a cost-effective measure for clean production. In literature, the rebound effects of energy efficiency improvement represented by energy intensity reductions, potential energy savings and actual energy savings are not well defined and properly clarified. To address this issue, this study comprehensively discusses and clarifies how to define and estimate potential and actual energy savings in the assessment. We focus on the well-known concept of rebound effect and propose a new notion of the optimal rebound effect, which avoids the counter-intuitive values in cases of energy intensity increases in neighboring years. The optimal rebound effect must be assessed by an optimization approach, while the traditional rebound effect assumes the observed next-year data as the case of energy intensity reduction. For illustration, a non-radical data envelopment analysis model is used to estimate the potential energy intensity reduction, which serves to assess the optimal rebound effects in four Asian countries including China, India, Japan and Korea, during the period 1973–2017. The findings indicate that neither backfire nor super-conservation appears in the estimated optimal rebound effects.acceptedVersio
Caribbean Small-Scale Fishers’ Strategies for Extreme Weather Events: Lessons for Adaptive Capacity from the Dominican Republic and Belize
Get PDFUnderstanding how Caribbean small-scale fishers can adapt to climate change is critical to sustaining coastal communities and livelihoods in the region. Fishers continuously adapt their practices to climate variability and recurring extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. However, it remains unclear how their “everyday” responses contribute to building their adaptive capacity for future changes and unpredictable extreme climate events. This paper identifies and analyzes strategies used by fishers in the Dominican Republic and Belize to deal with extreme weather events and climate variability. We draw on two separate case studies to identify their current autonomous adaptive strategies and explore how these align with broader dimensions of adaptive capacity. We find that fishers in both countries respond to changes and climate variability by relying on three strategies: (1) storing, saving and borrowing resources, (2) using experiential knowledge, flexibility and mobility, and (3) diversifying livelihoods and intensifying fishing. We show that fishers build their adaptive capacity on flexibility to sustain their livelihoods and on local knowledge to mitigate risk and damage from extreme weather events. The paper argues that the adaptive responses used by fishers in the Dominican Republic and in Belize can sustain their livelihoods but cannot enable a long term and transformative adaptation to ongoing and cumulative climate changes.publishedVersio
The role of spatial and temporal model resolution in a flood event storyline approach in western Norway
Get PDFWe apply a physical climate storyline approach to an autumn flood event in the West Coast of Norway caused by an atmospheric river to demonstrate the value and challenges of higher spatial and temporal resolution in simulating flood impacts. We use a modelling chain whose outputs are familiar and used operationally, for example to issue flood warnings. With two different versions of a hydrological model, we show that (1) the higher spatial resolution between the global and regional climate model is necessary to realistically simulate the high spatial variability of precipitation in this mountainous region and (2) only with hourly data are we able to capture the fast flood-generating processes leading to the peak streamflow. The higher resolution regional atmospheric model captures the fact that with the passage of an atmospheric river, some valleys receive high amounts of precipitation and others not, while the coarser resolution global model shows uniform precipitation in the whole region. Translating the event into the future leads to similar results: while in some catchments, a future flood might be much larger than a present one, in others no event occurs as the atmospheric river simply does not hit that catchment. The use of an operational flood warning system for future events is expected to facilitate stakeholder engagement.publishedVersio
Urban contractual agreements as an adaptive governance strategy: under what conditions do they work in multi-level cooperation?
Get PDFThe Norwegian urban growth agreement (UGA) is a governance platform combining transport-infrastructure development with land-use and transport policy. It is a policy package of measures involving network cooperation between national, regional and local government levels established to coordinate transport and land-use development. Shared responsibility for goal achievement, autonomy and learning and adaptation as new knowledge and experience arise are clear prerequisites for the UGAs. This makes it relevant to investigate the conditions for the UGAs to work as an adaptive governance strategy because their central features are in line with the attributes of adaptive governance. Further, adaptive governance is an approach to handle complex problems like transport development issues. The study shows that UGAs have several strengths in terms of autonomy and learning. However, the multi-level cooperation in the UGAs is framed by complex underlying structures of roles and powers, which challenge the working and legitimacy of the governance structures. Multi-level adaptive governance processes like the UGAs require attention to issues of power and legitimacy. Securing transparency and democratic anchorage is paramount in bringing such processes in line with the intended benefits of adaptive governance.acceptedVersio