CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Under what conditions will the paris process produce a cycle of increasing ambition sufficient to reach the 2°c goal?
Get PDFThe Paris Agreement establishes a cycle where parties submit their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every five years. First-round NDCs fail to put emissions on a path consistent with achieving the Agreement’s 2°C goal. This article presents a formal, dynamic model of reciprocity-based collective action among states and investigates the conditions under which the Paris process might deliver sufficient ambition ratchet-up to achieve the 2°C goal. The model is run under various assumptions about parties’ (1) willingness to increase ambition as a function of what others promise and deliver, (2) compliance with promises, (3) trust in the outcome of the review process, and (4) trust in the outcome of the periodic global stocktake. The results show that the Paris process delivers sufficient ambition ratchet-up to achieve the 2°C goal only under a very restricted set of conditions. At minimum, parties need to increase ambition by 4 percent of global emissions when they submit, confirm, or revise their 2030 targets in 2020.publishedVersio
Bergens klimagassutslipp mot 2030 - Referansebane og mulighetsscenarier
Get PDFCICERO og TØI har laget en modell for framskrivinger av klimagassutslipp i Bergen, på oppdrag fra Bergen kommune. Modellen er brukt til å konstruere en referansebane for klimagassutslipp fram til 2030, og tre mulighetsscenarier med utslippsreduserende tiltak. Referansebanen gir et anslag for utviklingen av utslippene i et scenario uten nye virkemidler utover det som var vedtatt innen utgangen
av 2018 eller dem som ligger i Bergen kommunes klimabudsjett. Mulighetsscenariene representerer stigende ambisjonsnivåer for utslippsreduksjoner, fra Bergens nåværende klimabudsjett, til tiltak i Klimakur 2030, til «radikale» tiltak som forsøker å kutte gjenværende utslipp så mye som rimelig mulig, og samtidig illustrerer hvilke områder som vil være særlig utfordrende for å nå Bergen
kommunes mål om fossilfritt Bergen i 2030
Utslippene i referansebanen går ned med 19 prosent fra 2018 til 2030, hovedsakelig som følge av økende elbilandel gjennom perioden, samt økt biodrivstoffandel fram mot 2020 og nasjonalt forbud mot fossil oljefyring fra 2020. Det er imidlertid stor usikkerhet, med kvantifisert usikkerhet som strekker seg fra en marginal økning i utslippene fram mot 2030, til en nedgang på over 30 prosent. Tiltakene i klimabudsjettet (utenom karbonfangst i avfallsforbrenning) reduserer utslippene i 2030 med 13 prosent i forhold til
referansebanen. Utvalgte tiltak fra Klimakur 2030 (inkludert karbonfangst i avfallsforbrenning) i tillegg til klimabudsjettiltakene reduserer utslippene i 2030 ned til 42 prosent under referansebanen. Mer drastiske reduksjoner krever kraftigere midler, som forbud mot kjøring med fossile biler, påbud om elektrifisering eller 100 prosent biodiesel for dieseldrevne motorredskaper, og påbud om bruk av landstrøm for alle skip med fossil drift. Selv i det mest ambisiøse scenariet gjenstår ca. 110 tusen tonn CO2-ekvivalenter, hovedsakelig fra skipsfart (utenfor havn) og fra industri. For skipsfart er ytterligere tiltak på grensen av det teknisk og politisk mulige innenfor den aktuelle tidsrammen, mens tiltak i industrisektoren ikke er evaluert innenfor rammene av dette oppdraget på grunn av mangel på data om hvilke aktiviteter utslippene stammer fra.publishedVersio
The impacts of the EU ETS on Norwegian plants’ environmental and economic performance
Get PDFThis paper examines the impacts of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) on the environmental and economic performance of Norwegian plants. The ETS is regarded as the cornerstone climate policy in the EU and Norway, but there has been considerable debate regarding its effects due to low quota prices and substantial allocation of free allowances. The rich data allow us to investigate potential effects of the ETS on several important aspects of plant behavior. The results indicate a weak tendency of emissions reductions among Norwegian plants in the second phase of the ETS, but not in the other phases. We find no significant effects on emissions intensity in any of the phases, but positive effects on value added and productivity in the second phase. These positive effects may be due to the large amounts of free allowances, and that plants may have passed on additional marginal costs to consumers.acceptedVersio
Hvor godt er norske kommuner rustet for klimaendringer? Spørreundersøkelse om klimatilpasning våren 2020
Get PDFFor andre år på rad har CICERO Senter for klimaforskning gjennomført en spørreundersøkelse om arbeidet med klimatilpasning i norske kommuner. Spørreundersøkelsen ble gjennomført våren 2020 på oppdrag fra forsikringsselskapet If og i samarbeid med IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet. I denne rapporten presenteres resultatene fra spørreundersøkelsen som ble besvart av 122 av landets 356 kommuner. Målsetningen med undersøkelsen er å kartlegge hvor langt kommunene har kommet med klimatilpasningsarbeidet, og synliggjøre utfordringer, behov og gode eksempler. Sammenliknet med undersøkelsen fra 2019 har kommunene i snitt forbedret sitt arbeid med klimatilpasning. De største kommunene leder an i arbeidet, men små kommuner har bedret seg mest siden fjorårets undersøkelse. Kommunene synes å ha fått en bredere tilnærming til klimatilpasningsarbeidet, blant annet ved at flere former for ekstremværhendelser tas i betraktning. De to viktigste barrierene for klimatilpasning i norske kommuner er mangel på ressurser (økonomi/personal) og mangel på tid/kapasitet.publishedVersio
Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases
Get PDFBlack carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on the ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of the ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extremely high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled BC×10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P−E; a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P−E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P−E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three subregions, including East Asian, South Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P−E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P−E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land–sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation, whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extremely high BC level: that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.publishedVersio
Health and Climate Impacts of Scaling Adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for Clean Household Cooking in Cameroon: A Modeling Study
Get PDFBackground: The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target. Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking. Methods: We applied existing and developed new mathematical models to calculate the health and climate impacts of expanding LPG primary adoption for household cooking in Cameroon over two periods: a) short-term (2017–2030): Comparing the Master Plan 58% target with a counterfactual LPG adoption of 32% in 2030, in line with current trends; and b) long-term (2031–2100, climate modeling only), assuming Cameroon will become a mature and saturated LPG market by 2100 (73% adoption, based on Latin American countries). We compared this with a counterfactual adoption of 41% by 2100, in line with current trends. Results: By 2030, successful implementation of the Master Plan was estimated to avert about 28,000 (minimum=22,000, maximum=35,000) deaths and 770,000 (minimum=580,000maximum=1 million) disability-adjusted life years. For the same period, we estimated reductions in pollutant emissions of more than a third in comparison with the counterfactual, leading to a global cooling of −0.1 milli °C in 2030. For 2100, a cooling impact from the Master Plan leading to market saturation (73%) was estimated to be −0.70 milli °C in comparison with to the counterfactual, with a range of −0.64 to −0.93 milli °C based on different fractions of nonrenewable biomass. Discussion: Successful implementation of the Master Plan could have significant positive impacts on population health in Cameroon with no adverse impacts on climate. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899publishedVersio
Impact of strong and extreme El Niños on European hydroclimate
Get PDFThe question of European hydroclimate anomaly associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is revisited by composite analyses on data from Dai et al.’s Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), and a 10-member CESM coupled-model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulations. This study benefits from exceptionally long or large samples in OWDA and CESM-LME. The averagely strong El Niño (1–2 standard deviations, or about one event per decade) is correlated to wet condition in western and southern Europe, and dry condition in Northern Europe; this result agrees with previous studies and thus provides a further support to this scenario. We also find in OWDA that extremely strong El Niño (>2 standard deviation, or about one event every 70–100 years) is related to a dry condition in western Europe. This suggests that the extreme El Niño impact in western Europe is opposite, or at least not linear, to that for the averagely strong El Niño. The impact of extreme El Niño does not appear to be reproduced by the LME, and will require further analyses on other climate reconstructions and models data.publishedVersio
Radiative forcing of climate change from the Copernicus reanalysis of atmospheric composition
Get PDFRadiative forcing provides an important basis for understanding and predicting global climate changes, but its quantification has historically been done independently for different forcing agents, has involved observations to varying degrees, and studies have not always included a detailed analysis of uncertainties. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis is an optimal combination of modelling and observations of atmospheric composition. It provides a unique opportunity to rely on observations to quantify the monthly and spatially resolved global distributions of radiative forcing consistently for six of the largest forcing agents: carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, aerosol–radiation interactions, and aerosol–cloud interactions. These radiative-forcing estimates account for adjustments in stratospheric temperatures but do not account for rapid adjustments in the troposphere. On a global average and over the period 2003–2017, stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing of carbon dioxide has averaged +1.89 W m−2 (5 %–95 % confidence interval: 1.50 to 2.29 W m−2) relative to 1750 and increased at a rate of 18 % per decade. The corresponding values for methane are +0.46 (0.36 to 0.56) W m−2 and 4 % per decade but with a clear acceleration since 2007. Ozone radiative-forcing averages +0.32 (0 to 0.64) W m−2, almost entirely contributed by tropospheric ozone since stratospheric ozone radiative forcing is only +0.003 W m−2. Aerosol radiative-forcing averages −1.25 (−1.98 to −0.52) W m−2, with aerosol–radiation interactions contributing −0.56 W m−2 and aerosol–cloud interactions contributing −0.69 W m−2 to the global average. Both have been relatively stable since 2003. Taking the six forcing agents together, there is no indication of a sustained slowdown or acceleration in the rate of increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing over the period. These ongoing radiative-forcing estimates will monitor the impact on the Earth's energy budget of the dramatic emission reductions towards net-zero that are needed to limit surface temperature warming to the Paris Agreement temperature targets. Indeed, such impacts should be clearly manifested in radiative forcing before being clear in the temperature record. In addition, this radiative-forcing dataset can provide the input distributions needed by researchers involved in monitoring of climate change, detection and attribution, interannual to decadal prediction, and integrated assessment modelling. The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.24380/ads.1hj3y896 (Bellouin et al., 2020b).publishedVersio
Summary of the International workshop on “Effects of air pollution and climate extremes on agriculture and health in South Asia” - Integrating Climate Action with Air Action in Indian Cities
Get PDFThe CiXPAG project co-organized a workshop in Delhi in November 2019, on the “Effects of air pollution and climate extremes on agriculture and health in South Asia”, together with local partners Society for Environment Education & Development (SEED) and Clean Air Asia (CAA). The workshop brought together experts from research and relevant stakeholders to discuss the state-of-knowledge and awareness of combined pollution and climate change impacts on agriculture, and to discuss gaps of knowledge and a roadmap ahead for science, policy and implementation. Some key points brought forward are the need to increase monitoring of ozone, better understand the links between urban and rural areas (both in terms of pollution transport, but also in socio-economic terms), use “airshed-” rather than local approaches for mitigation, to tailor dose-response curves specifically for Indian crop varieties, and to model impacts of different stresses such as heat, water, irrigation and ozone, to identify and prioritize which stresses are most urgent to address. Both urgency, adaptation besides mitigation, and socio-economic and political context for adaptation were pointed out as key issues
Share-On – prosjekt om lokalsamfunnsdeling og bærekraft
Get PDFShareOn har sett på motivasjon og betingelser for å få til deling samt hvilke effekter deling har på forbruk og sosial interaksjon. Vi har også gjort beregninger av utslippseffekter av deling ut fra ulike forsetninger når det gjelder organisering av delingsordning og hvordan deling er koblet til annet forbruk. Prosjektet baseres på spesifikke casestudier som ble valgt og gjennomført i samarbeid med ulike samfunnsaktører som jobber med delingsløsninger. I tillegg har vi gjennomført en spørreundersøkelse om deling i Norges befolkning. Denne rapporten oppsummerer funnene fra prosjektet og gir til slutt anbefalinger basert på prosjektresultatene for samfunnsaktørers og da spesielt kommuner som ønsker å initiere og utvikle nye delingsløsninge