CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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European anthropogenic AFOLU greenhouse gas emissions: A review and benchmark data
Get PDFEmission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and removals from land, including both anthropogenic and natural fluxes, require reliable quantification, including estimates of uncertainties, to support credible mitigation action under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of bottom-up anthropogenic emissions data from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the European Union (EU281). The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models and summarize GHG emissions and removals over the period 1990–2016. This compilation of bottom-up estimates of the AFOLU GHG emissions of European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs), with those of land carbon models and observation-based estimates of large-scale GHG fluxes, aims at improving the overall estimates of the GHG balance in Europe with respect to land GHG emissions and removals. Whenever available, we present uncertainties, its propagation and role in the comparison of different estimates. While NGHGI data for the EU28 provide consistent quantification of uncertainty following the established IPCC Guidelines, uncertainty in the estimates produced with other methods needs to account for both within model uncertainty and the spread from different model results. The largest inconsistencies between EU28 estimates are mainly due to different sources of data related to human activity, referred to here as activity data (AD) and methodologies (tiers) used for calculating emissions and removals from AFOLU sectors. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3662371 (Petrescu et al., 2020).publishedVersio
Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
Get PDFLong-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.publishedVersio
Mapping ice in the Norwegian Arctic – on the edge between science and policy
Get PDFn the Norwegian Arctic, petroleum exploration is prohibited north of the ice edge (the zone between solid sea ice and open ocean); the mapping and definition of the ice edge becomes the boundary for petroleum exploration. However, no evidence-based scientifically ‘correct’ position of the ice edge exists. Defining the ice edge—and its geographic positioning—is the result of co-production processes involving multiple actors and practices. We explore how the use of a new dataset for determining the geographical position of the ice edge became the centre of a proxy debate over how far north petroleum exploration should be allowed. The analysis reveals how maps serve as visual discourses in debate, and a strong correlation between different definitions of the ice edge and political commitment to petroleum activities. We challenge and discuss the performativity of maps and how mismatches between expectations to knowledge-based management, including maps, may have democratic implications.publishedVersio
Consumer purchases of energy-efficient cars: How different labelling schemes could affect consumer response to price changes
No full textImproved energy efficiency can help reduce pollution, contribute to energy security, and help consumers save money. This paper explores energy labelling schemes as a policy instrument for promoting energy-efficient cars in Spain. Specifically, it explores consumer responses to changes in vehicle prices. We derive the demand responses for two different efficiency labelling schemes: absolute and relative. To that end, we calculate own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for cars with efficiency labels on the Spanish car market. The results show that the elasticities for more efficient cars are in general higher. However, in the specific case of sedans, the elasticities depend on assumptions about how consumers decide which car to purchase. If consumers are concerned about the absolute energy performance of cars independently of other attributes, and thus pay attention to absolute labelling, demand for more efficient cars is more elastic than demand for less efficient cars. If consumers choose the car segment first and then the energy performance, using the relative label, the opposite result is found. The results suggest that both relative and absolute labelling schemes can be useful, depending on how consumers make their decisions. It might also be possible to design a mixed system.acceptedVersio
Institutional inequality and individual preferences for honesty and generosity
Get PDFThis paper reports on an experiment that investigates how inequality in advantage affects individual preferences for honesty and generosity. In a two-stage experiment, subjects first earn money according to self-reported production, which can include honest and dishonest reports. Subjects then play the dictator game and decide how much, if any, of their earnings to share with an anonymous recipient. Treatments investigate how equal and unequal advantages in production affect the extent of cheating in stage one and the subsequent offers in stage two. When advantage randomly benefits only some of the group, the relatively disadvantaged are significantly more dishonest and exhibit significantly less other-regarding behavior. Considering the interplay between cheating and giving, we find that greater cheating was followed with greater giving. And comparing this relationship across treatments suggests self-justification for dishonest behavior makes subjects feel more entitled to their ill-gotten gains.acceptedVersio
A global model–measurement evaluation of particle light scattering coefficients at elevated relative humidity,
Get PDFThe uptake of water by atmospheric aerosols has a pronounced effect on particle light scattering properties, which in turn are strongly dependent on the ambient relative humidity (RH). Earth system models need to account for the aerosol water uptake and its influence on light scattering in order to properly capture the overall radiative effects of aerosols. Here we present a comprehensive model–measurement evaluation of the particle light scattering enhancement factor f(RH), defined as the particle light scattering coefficient at elevated RH (here set to 85 %) divided by its dry value. The comparison uses simulations from 10 Earth system models and a global dataset of surface-based in situ measurements. In general, we find a large diversity in the magnitude of predicted f(RH) amongst the different models, which can not be explained by the site types. Based on our evaluation of sea salt scattering enhancement and simulated organic mass fraction, there is a strong indication that differences in the model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are driving at least some of the observed diversity in simulated f(RH). Additionally, a key point is that defining dry conditions is difficult from an observational point of view and, depending on the aerosol, may influence the measured f(RH). The definition of dry also impacts our model evaluation, because several models exhibit significant water uptake between RH = 0 % and 40 %. The multisite average ratio between model outputs and measurements is 1.64 when RH = 0 % is assumed as the model dry RH and 1.16 when RH = 40 % is the model dry RH value. The overestimation by the models is believed to originate from the hygroscopicity parameterizations at the lower RH range which may not implement all phenomena taking place (i.e., not fully dried particles and hysteresis effects). This will be particularly relevant when a location is dominated by a deliquescent aerosol such as sea salt. Our results emphasize the need to consider the measurement conditions in such comparisons and recognize that measurements referred to as dry may not be dry in model terms. Recommendations for future model–measurement evaluation and model improvements are provided.publishedVersio
Transforming knowledge systems for life on Earth: Visions of future systems and how to get there
No full textFormalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for contemporary societies. They are, however, also arguably failing humanity when their impact is measured against the level of progress being made in stimulating the societal changes needed to address challenges like climate change. In this research we used a novel futures-oriented and participatory approach that asked what future envisioned knowledge systems might need to look like and how we might get there. Findings suggest that envisioned future systems will need to be much more collaborative, open, diverse, egalitarian, and able to work with values and systemic issues. They will also need to go beyond producing knowledge about our world to generating wisdom about how to act within it. To get to envisioned systems we will need to rapidly scale methodological innovations, connect innovators, and creatively accelerate learning about working with intractable challenges. We will also need to create new funding schemes, a global knowledge commons, and challenge deeply held assumptions. To genuinely be a creative force in supporting longevity of human and non-human life on our planet, the shift in knowledge systems will probably need to be at the scale of the enlightenment and speed of the scientific and technological revolution accompanying the second World War. This will require bold and strategic action from governments, scientists, civic society and sustained transformational intent.publishedVersio
Lokale datakilder - Endelig notat
No full textKlimaetaten, Oslo kommune engasjerte i 2020 CICERO Senter for klimaforskning og Transportøkonomisk institutt (TØI) for ekstern bistand til arbeid med lokale datakilder for klimagassutslipp, utover de som i dag brukes i Miljødirektoratets kommunefordelte klimagassregnskap. Dette notatet er en del av leveransen i dette bistandsprosjektet, og inneholder omtale av dagens kommunefordelte klimagassregnskap og utfordringer knyttet til denne, forslag til videreutvikling og en oversikt over eksisterende lokale datakilder og mulige nye datakilder. I tillegg til dette notatet består leveransen av en sammenstilling av eksisterende data. Kartleggingsarbeidet som er gjort viser at dagens kommunefordelte klimagassregnskap har stort forbedringspotensial når det kommer til veiledning og dokumentasjon, beregningsmetoder og datakilder. I tillegg anbefaler vi at det som er av tilgjengelig tilleggsinformasjon for det kommunefordelte klimagassregnskapet i større grad tilgjengeliggjøres. I framtiden er det sentralt at kommunene får tilgang til aktivitetsdata og utslippsfaktorer for å verifisere klimagassregnskapet. En gjennomgående utfordring for det kommunefordelte klimagassregnskapet er at tiltak ikke fanges opp. Miljødirektoratet har signalisert at de ønsker å ta i bruk lokale data for å fange opp effekten av klimatiltak, men for flere sektorer vil det være vanskelig å ta disse bruk uten en videreutvikling av beregningsmetoden som ligger til grunn. Basert på kartleggingen av lokale data ser vi at det ikke er mange opplagte kandidater som direkte vil lede til en korrigering av tallene uten at metoden endres i større eller mindre grad. For å realisere bruken av lokale datakilder og andre datasett kreves det videre aktiv oppfølging fra Klimaetatens side. I sum ser vi at det største potensialet for å forbedre det kommunefordelte klimagassregnskapet ligger i å gjøre mange små forbedringerpublishedVersio
Culturally sensitive boundary work: A framework for linking knowledge to climate action
Get PDFAlthough it is increasingly recognized that scientific knowledge about climate change needs to be framed and conveyed in ways that resonate with people’s livelihoods to motivate societal change, these insights are often neglected in discussions about science-policy interactions. Drawing on empirical studies from Norwegian renewable primary industries, this paper presents a novel conceptual framework for culturally sensitive boundary work for climate change transformation. Our framework combines boundary work theory with cultural theory and examine the production of and engagement with knowledge in innovation and development processes in agriculture, aquaculture and fisheries from three case studies in Norway. The innovation processes are analyzed across four dimensions: degrees of knowledge integration, degrees of participation, learning and negotiation over boundaries. By combining this with an analysis of the actors’ way of life according to cultural theory, we are able to compare different configurations of boundary work with ways of life. We find that in innovation processes with egalitarian users there is a high level of knowledge integration, learning and participation, while there is a greater need for dedicated boundary workers in processes with individualist users. We argue that the framework can inform the design and implementation of deliberate coproduction of knowledge for transformation among actors that adheres to different ways of life.publishedVersio
Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of historical surface air temperature extremes using proper evaluation methods
Get PDFReliable projections of extremes by climate models are becoming increasingly important in the context of climate change and associated societal impacts. Extremes are by definition rare events, characterized by a small sample associated with large uncertainties. The evaluation of extreme events in model simulations thus requires performance measures that compare full distributions rather than simple summaries. This paper proposes the use of the integrated quadratic distance (IQD) for this purpose. The IQD is applied to evaluate CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of monthly maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature over Europe and North America against both observation-based data and reanalyses. Several climate models perform well to the extent that these models' performance is competitive with the performance of another data product in simulating the evaluation set. While the model rankings vary with region, season and index, the model evaluation is robust against changes in the grid resolution considered in the analysis. When the model simulations are ranked based on their similarity with the ERA5 reanalysis, more CMIP6 than CMIP5 models appear at the top of the ranking. When evaluated against the HadEX2 data product, the overall performance of the two model ensembles is similar.publishedVersio