CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Green transformation is a boundary object: An analysis of conceptualisation of transformation in Norwegian primary industries
Get PDFThe concept of green transformation is burgeoning in the academic literature and policy discourses, yet few empirical studies investigate what the concept actually means to diverse actors, and how it manifests in practices. This paper contributes to filling that gap. Through an analysis of policy documents and interviews, we investigate how central policy actors and interest organisations in Norwegian farming, fisheries and aquaculture conceptualise and enact transformation. The analysis of the policy documents shows that the concept ‘transformation’ is mentioned more frequently, and a rhetoric with close connotations to green growth is increasingly applied, which may leave the impression that there is consensus concerning what the concept means and entails. The interviews however leave a more nuanced picture. Among most of the actors, transformation is interpreted in terms of green growth, while a minority of the actors argue for a deeper sustainability, pointing to planetary limits. Clearly, what transformation is and what it entails is embedded in interpretive flexibility. The concept ‘transformation’ is plastic enough to be applied in several different, and partly conflicting, policy discourses and arenas. We argue that transformation can be understood as a boundary object, and different actors perform different sorts of boundary work to adapt the boundary object of ‘transformation’ to fit their agendas. Thus, it makes more sense to think of transformation in plural – transformations – instead of a single, consensual discourse. We find that the very practices of most of the actors are not transformative in the theoretical understanding of the concept and that inadequate attention is given to potential negative sides of transformation. Consequently, both scholarly and practical discussions on how to achieve transformation should take into account that different and (partly) conflicting interpretations will continue to exist and contribute to distinguish between different degrees of sustainability and related pathways.publishedVersio
Many Miles to Paris: A Sectoral Innovation System Analysis of the Transport Sector in Norway and Canada in Light of the Paris Agreement
Get PDFTransport is associated with high amounts of energy consumed and greenhouse gases emitted. Most transport means operate using fossil fuels, creating the urgent need for a rapid transformation of the sector. In this research, we examine the transport systems of Norway and Canada, two countries with similar shares of greenhouse gas emissions from transport and powerful oil industries operating within their boundaries. Our socio-technical analysis, based on the Sectoral Innovation Systems approach, attempts to identify the elements enabling Norway to become one of the leaders in the diffusion of electric vehicles, as well as the differences pacing down progress in Canada. By utilising the System Failure framework to compare the two systems, bottlenecks hindering the decarbonisation of the two transport systems are identified. Results indicate that the effectiveness of Norway’s policy is exaggerated and has led to recent spillover effects towards green shipping. The activity of oil companies, regional and federal legislative disputes in Canada and the lack of sincere efforts from system actors to address challenges lead to non-drastic greenhouse gas emission reductions, despite significant policy efforts from both countries. Insights into the effectiveness of previously implemented policies and the evolution of the two sectoral systems can help draw lessons towards sustainable transport.publishedVersio
A machine learning examination of hydroxyl radical differences among model simulations for CCMI-1
Get PDFThe hydroxyl radical (OH) plays critical roles within the troposphere, such as determining the lifetime of methane (CH4), yet is challenging to model due to its fast cycling and dependence on a multitude of sources and sinks. As a result, the reasons for variations in OH and the resulting methane lifetime (τCH4), both between models and in time, are difficult to diagnose. We apply a neural network (NN) approach to address this issue within a group of models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Analysis of the historical specified dynamics simulations performed for CCMI indicates that the primary drivers of τCH4 differences among 10 models are the flux of UV light to the troposphere (indicated by the photolysis frequency JO1D), the mixing ratio of tropospheric ozone (O3), the abundance of nitrogen oxides (NOx≡NO+NO2), and details of the various chemical mechanisms that drive OH. Water vapour, carbon monoxide (CO), the ratio of NO:NOx, and formaldehyde (HCHO) explain moderate differences in τCH4, while isoprene, methane, the photolysis frequency of NO2 by visible light (JNO2), overhead ozone column, and temperature account for little to no model variation in τCH4. We also apply the NNs to analysis of temporal trends in OH from 1980 to 2015. All models that participated in the specified dynamics historical simulation for CCMI demonstrate a decline in τCH4 during the analysed timeframe. The significant contributors to this trend, in order of importance, are tropospheric O3, JO1D, NOx, and H2O, with CO also causing substantial interannual variability in OH burden. Finally, the identified trends in τCH4 are compared to calculated trends in the tropospheric mean OH concentration from previous work, based on analysis of observations. The comparison reveals a robust result for the effect of rising water vapour on OH and τCH4, imparting an increasing and decreasing trend of about 0.5 % decade−1, respectively. The responses due to NOx, ozone column, and temperature are also in reasonably good agreement between the two studies.publishedVersio
Stable climate metrics for emissions of short and long-lived species—combining steps and pulses
Get PDFMulti-gas climate agreements rely on a methodology (widely referred to as 'metrics') to place emissions of different gases on a CO2-equivalent scale. There has been an ongoing debate on the extent to which existing metrics serve current climate policy. Endpoint metrics (such as global temperature change potential GTP) are the most closely related to policy goals based on temperature limits (such as Article 2 of the Paris Agreement). However, for short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), endpoint metrics vary strongly with time horizon making them difficult to apply in practical situations. We show how combining endpoint metrics for a step change in SLCF emissions with a pulse emission of CO2 leads to an endpoint metric that only varies slowly over time horizons of interest. We therefore suggest that these combined step-pulse metrics (denoted combined global warming potential CGWP and combined global temperature change potential CGTP) can be a useful way to include short and long-lived species in the same basket in policy applications—this assumes a single basket approach is preferred by policy makers. The advantage of a combined step-pulse metric for SLCFs is that for species with a lifetime less than 20 years a single time horizon of around 75 years can cover the range of timescales appropriate to the Paris Agreement. These metrics build on recent work using the traditional global warming potential (GWP) metric in a new way, called GWP*. We show how the GWP* relates to CGWP and CGTP and that it systematically underestimates the temperature effects of SLCFs by up to 20%. These step-pulse metrics are all more appropriate than the conventional GWP for comparing the relative contributions of different species to future temperature targets and for SLCFs they are much less dependent on time horizon than GTP.publishedVersio
A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks
Get PDFNitrous oxide (N2O), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric N2O concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion1 and climate change2, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of N2O emissions, owing to their omission of natural sources and limitations in methodology for attributing anthropogenic sources. Here we present a global N2O inventory that incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and accounts for the interaction between nitrogen additions and the biochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, process-based land and ocean modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversion) approaches to provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks resulting from 21 natural and human sectors between 1980 and 2016. Global N2O emissions were 17.0 (minimum–maximum estimates: 12.2–23.5) teragrams of nitrogen per year (bottom-up) and 16.9 (15.9–17.7) teragrams of nitrogen per year (top-down) between 2007 and 2016. Global human-induced emissions, which are dominated by nitrogen additions to croplands, increased by 30% over the past four decades to 7.3 (4.2–11.4) teragrams of nitrogen per year. This increase was mainly responsible for the growth in the atmospheric burden. Our findings point to growing N2O emissions in emerging economies—particularly Brazil, China and India. Analysis of process-based model estimates reveals an emerging N2O–climate feedback resulting from interactions between nitrogen additions and climate change. The recent growth in N2O emissions exceeds some of the highest projected emission scenarios3,4, underscoring the urgency to mitigate N2O emissions.submittedVersio
Car sharing and transformations in households travel patterns: Insights from emerging proto-practices in Norway
No full textOver the last decades car sharing has been recognized as a socio-technical innovation that can help to reduce or replace the use of fossil-fueled private cars in urban regions. To understand how car sharing may be used in the future, and its potential role as a driver of a more sustainable mobility system, studies of early user practices represent an important source of knowledge. Based on a combination of inductive statistical techniques and qualitative investigations of car-sharing households in Oslo, this study explores emerging practices of car sharing. A survey of 1,136 active car sharers is combined with 36 in-depth interviews with households using three different car-sharing schemes. The results suggest that car sharing is developing as three different proto-practices, labeled as active green, local flexible and long-distance holiday. These three practice forms relate to variations in car-sharing schemes, type of travel, and length/frequency of trips, as well as to affiliated motives and meanings. The study contributes a deeper understanding of how current car-sharing practices are emerging in households and the potential implications for sustainable urban mobility and policy developments.acceptedVersio
Biofuel burning and human respiration bias on satellite estimates of fossil fuel CO2 emissions
Get PDFThe satellites that have been designed to support the monitoring of fossil fuel CO2 emissions aim to systematically measure atmospheric CO2 plumes generated by intense emissions from large cities, power plants and industrial sites. These data can be assimilated into atmospheric transport models in order to estimate the corresponding emissions. However, plumes emitted by cities and powerplants contain not only fossil fuel CO2 but also significant amounts of CO2 released by human respiration and by the burning of biofuels. We show that these amounts represent a significant proportion of the fossil fuel CO2 emissions, up to 40% for instance in cities of Nordic countries, and will thus leave some ambiguity in the retrieval of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from satellite concentration observations. Auxiliary information such as biofuel use statistics and radiocarbon measurement could help reduce the ambiguity and improve the framework of monitoring fossil fuel CO2 emissions from space.publishedVersio
Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway
Get PDFHydrometeorological compound events cause severe economical, societal and environmental damage, but their investigation is difficult as they occur rarely and are multivariate. Here we use 50 high-resolution climate simulations from the single model initial condition large ensemble CRCM5-LE to examine two such compound event types in southern Norway: (1) Heavy rainfall on saturated soil during the summer months (June, July, August, September; SES) and (2) Concurrent heavy rainfall and snowmelt (rain-on-snow; ROS). We compare present-day conditions (1980–2009) with future conditions under a high-emission scenario (2070–2099) and investigate the impact of climate change on the frequency and spatial distribution of SES and ROS events. We find that the probability of occurrence of SES events during the summer increases by 38% until 2070–2099 over the whole study area. The areas with the highest occurrence probability extend from the west coast into the interior. In contrast, the frequency of ROS is projected to decrease by 48% on average, largely driven by decreases in snowfall. Moreover, the spatial pattern of ROS are projected to change, with the most frequently affected areas shifting from the west coast towards the inner country. Our study highlights the benefits of single model large ensemble simulations for the analysis of compound events.publishedVersio
Commuting in knowledge intensive organizations: An outline of six different practices
Get PDFThis article investigates car-based commuting habits among employees in four knowledge intensive organizations (KIOs) in the greater Oslo region in Norway. This region has experienced a growth in KIOs and knowledge workers over the last few decades and, like many other European urban regions, it struggles with high levels of car-based commuting. This article suggests designing policy measures based on a deeper understanding of the various ways that commuting is performed. Based on inductive statistical methods, groups with different sets of commuting practices are defined, which is used to create commuting profiles across and within the enterprises. The six key commuting practices suggests that targeted policy-mixes should be applied to support shifts toward more sustainable commutes.acceptedVersio
Bærekraftig deling i norske kommuner: status og nye muligheter
Get PDFDenne studien er del av prosjektet UPSCALE, der formålet er å undersøke mulighetene for å øke omfanget av bærekraftig utlån og deling med utgangspunkt i lokale biblioteker. For å få vite mer om bruk av eksisterende dele- og låneordninger, og interessen for å låne gjenstander ved butikkutsalg ved hjelp av bibliotekenes utlånskort, er det gjennomført spørreundersøkelser i fem kommuner: Nordre Follo, Drammen, Tromsø, Lillestrøm og Lier. Rapporten viser at seks prosent av befolkningen i disse kommunene har benyttet eksisterende utlånsordninger det siste året. Det er først og fremst praktiske motiver som gjør at folk låner utstyr, men ønsker om å redusere forbruk mer generelt spiller også en rolle. Totalt oppgir hver fjerde innbygger i kommunene at de kan være interessert i å låne utstyr i butikker ved hjelp av bibliotekenes lånekort.publishedVersio