CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP
Get PDFMany nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by
restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other
greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated
Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of
these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300
simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus
on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in
surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during
2020–2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer
scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air
quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.publishedVersio
Economic and Environmental Benefits from Municipal Solid Waste Recycling in the Murmansk Region
No full textMost municipal solid waste (MSW) in Russia is disposed of in landfills, and only a relatively small fraction is recycled. The landfilling of waste leads to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and air and groundwater pollution. However, recently, there have been some initiatives to improve waste management in the country. We assessed the economic and environmental benefits of waste recycling in the Murmansk region, in which a new waste recycling plant has been operating since 2019. We found that MSW recycling in the Murmansk region has induced a small, positive, job creation effect and could potentially lead to a non-negligible reduction in GHG emissions. Extrapolating the results from this case study to the country level, we found that recycling landfilled MSW in Russia could save approximately 154 million tons of GHG emissions in carbon dioxide equivalents annually, which is comparable to the total CO2 emissions from Algeria. The positive environmental and health-related impacts from the extensive implementation of MSW recycling in the country could be substantial. From this case study, we also learned that one of the biggest challenges for the waste recycling company in the Murmansk region is finding profitable markets for recycled materials. Moreover, due to the high investment and operational costs, recycling MSW led to a substantial increase in communal fees. However, there is potential to make waste recycling more cost effective. Most MSW in the Murmansk region is still separated at the recycling plant, while separating waste at the source could substantially reduce operational costs. Other challenges in the large-scale implementation of MSW recycling in Russia, such as a lack of investments and the population’s willingness to recycle waste, are also discussed.publishedVersio
A systematic review on the association between total and cardiopulmonary mortality/morbidity or cardiovascular risk factors with long-term exposure to increased or decreased ambient temperature
Get PDFThe health effects of acute exposure to temperature extremes are established; those of long-term exposure only recently received attention. We performed a systematic review to assess the associations of long-term (>3 months) exposure to higher or lower temperature on total and cardiopulmonary mortality and morbidity, screening 3455 studies and selecting 34. The studies were classified in those observing associations within a population over years with changing annual temperature indices and those comparing areas with a different climate. We also assessed the risk of bias, adapting appropriately an instrument developed by the World Health Organization for air pollution. Studies reported that annual temperature indices for extremes and variability were associated with annual increases in mortality, indicating that effects of temperature extremes cannot be attributed only to short-term mortality displacement. Studies on cardiovascular mortality indicated stronger associations with cold rather than hot temperature, whilst those on respiratory outcomes reported effects of both heat and cold but were few and used diverse health outcomes. Interactions with air pollution were not generally assessed. The few studies investigating effect modification showed stronger effects among the elderly and those socially deprived. Comparisons of health outcome prevalence between areas reported lower blood pressure and a tendency for higher obesity in populations living in warmer climates. Our review indicated interesting associations between long-term exposure to unusual temperature levels in specific areas and differences in health outcomes and cardiovascular risk factors between geographical locations with different climate, but the number of studies by design and health outcome was small. Risk of bias was identified because of the use of crude exposure assessment and inadequate adjustment for confounding. More and better designed studies, including the investigation of effect modifiers, are needed.publishedVersio
The effect of rapid adjustments to halocarbons and N2O on radiative forcing
Get PDFRapid adjustments occur after initial perturbation of an external climate driver (e.g., CO2) and involve changes in, e.g. atmospheric temperature, water vapour and clouds, independent of sea surface temperature changes. Knowledge of such adjustments is necessary to estimate effective radiative forcing (ERF), a useful indicator of surface temperature change, and to understand global precipitation changes due to different drivers. Yet, rapid adjustments have not previously been analysed in any detail for certain compounds, including halocarbons and N2O. Here we use several global climate models combined with radiative kernel calculations to show that individual rapid adjustment terms due to CFC-11, CFC-12 and N2O are substantial, but that the resulting flux changes approximately cancel at the top-of-atmosphere due to compensating effects. Our results further indicate that radiative forcing (which includes stratospheric temperature adjustment) is a reasonable approximation for ERF. These CFCs lead to a larger increase in precipitation per kelvin surface temperature change (2.2 ± 0.3% K−1) compared to other well-mixed greenhouse gases (1.4 ± 0.3% K−1 for CO2). This is largely due to rapid upper tropospheric warming and cloud adjustments, which lead to enhanced atmospheric radiative cooling (and hence a precipitation increase) and partly compensate increased atmospheric radiative heating (i.e. which is associated with a precipitation decrease) from the instantaneous perturbation.publishedVersio
Dirty air offsets inequality
No full textAtmospheric aerosols have probably masked a significant portion of the greenhouse-gas-induced warming so far. Research now shows that this also may have masked some of the world’s increasing economic inequality.submittedVersio
Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations
Get PDFRadiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m−2 [0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m−2 [0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.publishedVersio
Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation
Get PDFA major step towards achieving the goals of the Paris agreement would be a measurable change in the evolution of global warming in response to mitigation of anthropogenic emissions. The inertia and internal variability of the climate system, however, will delay the emergence of a discernible response even to strong, sustained mitigation. Here, we investigate when we could expect a significant change in the evolution of global mean surface temperature after strong mitigation of individual climate forcers. Anthropogenic CO2 has the highest potential for a rapidly measurable influence, combined with long term benefits, but the required mitigation is very strong. Black Carbon (BC) mitigation could be rapidly discernible, but has a low net gain in the longer term. Methane mitigation combines rapid effects on surface temperature with long term effects. For other gases or aerosols, even fully removing anthropogenic emissions is unlikely to have a discernible impact before mid-century.publishedVersio
Forbudet mot nydyrking av myr: Bakgrunn, effekter og utfordringer
Get PDFRapporten utforsker i hvilken grad forbudet mot nydyrking av myr vil virke etter hensikten og dermed hvilket potensial forbudet har som klimapolitisk virkemiddel. Rapporten utforsker bakgrunnen til lovforslaget og ulike aktørers syn uttrykt gjennom høringssvar og intervjuer. Det er også beregnet sannsynlige konsekvenser av forbudet på matproduksjon, økonomiske effekter for næringen og klimagassutslipp. Analysene viser at forbudet har et stort potensial som klimapolitisk virkemiddel. Potensialet underbygges av at konsekvenser for matproduksjon og økonomiske konsekvenser for bruk er relativt lave og håndterbare. Derimot viser rapporten at det er relativt høy risiko for at dette potensialet uthules i implementeringsfasen, for eksempel ved at det gis mange dispensasjoner fra forbudet. Det er derfor viktig å understreke at forbudet har et stort potensial som klimapolitisk virkemiddel som ikke nødvendigvis vil utløses. Funnene i denne rapporten kan bidra til å utløse dette potensialet.publishedVersio
Sharing among neighbours in a Norwegian suburb
No full textSharing goods and services has been promoted as fostering more sustainable consumption. In this paper, we explore sharing in a middle-class neighbourhood in a Norwegian city. We ask what influences and frames neighbours’ current sharing practices, contending that Polanyi’s notions of exchange systems, specifically reciprocity and redistribution, yield valuable insights for our study. We show that reciprocal and redistributive sharing may reinforce each other by increasing the frequency of sharing and the variety of items shared. Furthermore, redistributive sharing systems may foster close relations and interpersonal trust, which are prerequisites for reciprocal sharing. Hence, if the goal is to increase the rate of sharing of goods and services in neighbourhoods like that studied here, two initiatives can be valid. First, items with the right affordances can be redistributed by existing institutions; second, reciprocity can be encouraged by organising more opportunities for resident interaction.submittedVersio
How much snow falls in the world's mountains? A first look at mountain snowfall estimates in A-train observations and reanalyses
Get PDFCloudSat estimates that 1773 km3 of snow falls, on average, each year over the world's mountains. This amounts to 5 % of the global snowfall accumulations. This study synthetizes mountain snowfall estimates over the four continents containing mountains (Eurasia, North America, South America and Africa), comparing snowfall estimates from a new satellite cloud-radar-based dataset to those from four widely used reanalyses: Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), MERRA-2, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). Globally, the fraction of snow that falls in the world's mountains is very similar between all these independent datasets (4 %–5 %), providing confidence in this estimate. The fraction of snow that falls in the mountains compared to the continent as a whole is also very similar between the different datasets. However, the total of snow that falls globally and over each continent – the critical factor governing freshwater availability in these regions – varies widely between datasets. The consensus in fractions and the dissimilarities in magnitude could indicate that large-scale forcings may be similar in the five datasets, while local orographic enhancements at smaller scales may not be captured. This may have significant implications for our ability to diagnose regional trends in snowfall and its impacts on snowpack in rapidly evolving alpine environments.publishedVersio