CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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Elevation dependent precipitation and temperature changes over Indian Himalayan region
Get PDFVarious studies reported an elevation dependent precipitation and temperature changes in mountainous regions of the world including the Himalayas. Various mechanisms are proposed to link the possible dependence of the precipitation and temperature on elevation with other variables, including, long- and short-wave radiation, albedo, clouds, humidity, etc. In the present study changes and trends of precipitation and temperature at different elevation ranges in the Indian Himalayan region (IHR) is assessed. Observations and modelling fields during the period 1970–2099 are used. Modelling simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia experiments (CORDEX-SA) suites are considered. In addition, four seasons—winter (Dec, Jan, Feb: DJF), pre-monsoon (Mar, Apr, May: MAM), monsoon (Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep: JJAS) and post-monsoon (Oct, Nov: ON)—are considered to detect the possible seasonal response of elevation dependency. Firstly, precipitation and temperature fields, separately, as well as the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are assessed. Following, their long-term trends are investigated, if varying, at different elevational ranges in the IHR. To explain plausible physical mechanisms due to elevation dependency, trend of other variables viz., surface downward longwave radiation (DLR), total cloud faction, soil moisture, near surface specific humidity, surface snow melt and surface albedo, etc. are investigated. Results point towards an decreased (increased) precipitation in higher (lower) elevation. And amplified warming signals at higher elevations (above 3000 m), both in daytime and nighttime temperatures, during all seasons except the monsoon, are noticed. Increased DLR trends at higher elevation are also simulated well by the model and are likely the main elevation dependent driver in the IHR.submittedVersio
Global fossil carbon emissions rebound near pre-COVID-19 levels
Get PDFFossil CO2 emissions in 2021 grew an estimated 4.2% (3.5%–4.8%) to 36.2 billion metric tons compared with 2020, pushing global emissions back close to 2019 levels (36.7 Gt CO2).publishedVersio
Changes in temporal inequality of precipitation extremes over China due to anthropogenic forcings
Get PDFBased on the Gini-coefficients, this study has presented an analysis of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing on the temporal inequality (i.e., increase in unevenness or disparity) of precipitation amounts (PRCPTOT), intensity (SDII), and extremes (R95p and RX5day) at national and regional scales (eight regions) in China. A positive anthropogenic influence on the temporal inequality is found for precipitation extremes over China, especially in southern regions during the period 1961–2005. Projections of future precipitation indices except R95p have a stepped upward trend in temporal precipitation variability with increasing anthropogenic forcing in most regions of China under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios. Except for Southern China (SC) and SWC2, R95p has a significant decrease in the future, and the largest decrease is up to 29.5% in Northwest China under SSP370. Results obtained from this study offer insights into temporal variability of precipitation extremes and help policy makers for managing water-related disasters.publishedVersio
Utsleppsanalyse mot 2030 for Vestland fylkeskommune
Get PDFCICERO Senter for Klimaforskning og Transportøkonomisk institutt (TØI) har utarbeidd ein utrekningsmodell og eit sett med framskrivingar for klimagassutslepp i Vestland fylke fram til 2030. Framskrivingane omfattar ein referansebane og anslått effekt av ei rekke ulike utsleppsreduserande tiltak. Framskrivingane kan brukast til å illustrere korleis klimagassutsleppa i Vestland kan tenkast å utvikle seg under ulike føresetnader, og kva type innsats som blir kravd for å oppnå Vestlands mål om netto nullutslepp i 2030. Referansebanen anslår korleis utsleppa kan utvikle seg utan nye utsleppsreduserande tiltak eller verkemiddel utover noverande vedtatt politikk, og dannar eit grunnlag for å måle effekten av tiltak. Tiltaksutrekningane er sett saman i tre ulike tiltakspakker, som både er tematisk grupperte og samtidig speglar både aukande effekt og stigande ambisjonsnivå: 1) Klimaplan for 2021-2030, 2) Moderate tiltak ut over Klimaplanen og 3) Radikale tiltak.
Utsleppa er dominert av sektoren Industri, olje og gass (42 prosent av utsleppa), kor Mongstad raffineri er det største bidraget, følgd av ulike metallurgiske verksemder, samt mindre utslepp frå gassterminalar og prosessanlegg, og ei lang rekke små verksemder. Deretter følgjer Sjøfart (21 prosent), Vegtrafikk (13 prosent), Energiforsyning (8 prosent), Jordbruk (6 prosent), Anna mobil forbrenning (5 prosent), Avfall og avløp (2 prosent), Oppvarming (1 prosent) og Luftfart (1 prosent). I referansebanen går utsleppa i Vestland ned med 17 prosent mellom 2019 og 2030. Tiltakspakke 1, 2 og 3 reduserer til saman utsleppa i 2030 frå 5,5 til 1,2 millionar tonn CO2-ekvivalentar, til 79 prosent lågare enn referansebanen. Meir enn to tredjedelar av reduksjonen kjem frå tiltakspakke 3 («Radikale tiltak»). Sjølv med alle tiltaka står det att 1,2 millionar CO2-ekvivalentar i 2030, av det 60 prosent fossilt CO2 medan resten er CH4 og N2O som i hovudsak kjem frå biologiske kjelder. Dei største restutsleppa av fossilt CO2 kjem frå utslepp til sjøs (segling) i sektoren Sjøfart, frå mindre utsleppsverksemder i Industri, olje og gass (utanom Mongstad raffineri og dei store metallurgiske verksemdene som vert analysert individuelt i denne rapporten), og frå landingar i luftfarten som ikkje nyttar nullutsleppsløysingar eller biobrensel. Desse utsleppa vert ikkje treft av nokon tiltak i tiltakspakkene, til dels fordi det er vanskeleg å finne gjennomførbare tiltak som kan kutte utsleppa monaleg innan 2030, og til dels fordi å utreie tiltak for desse utsleppa fell utanfor kva som lét seg gjere innanfor rammene for analysane i denne rapporten.
Fylkeskommunen rår sterkast over aktivitetar i eiga verksemd og der kor fylkeskommunen er eigar. Dette gjeld mykje av kollektivtrafikken, men tiltaka på dei fleste andre områda vil krevje samarbeid. Fylkeskommunen kan då spele ei viktig rolle som koordinator, særleg for tiltak som krev samspel mellom kommunar og/eller einskilde private aktørar, så som utbygging av landstraum, tiltak for reduserte avfallsmengder eller matsvinn, og nullutslepp på bygg- og anleggsplassar. På andre område må fylkeskommunen vere ein pådrivar overfor statleg nivå, til dømes for å gje nasjonale insentiv eller påbod som fører til høg nullutsleppsandel for nybilsal for ulike biltypar, stønad til ambisiøse tiltak på industriverksemder, påbod om nullutsleppssonar og liknande.publishedVersio
Developing B2B electric car sharing as a sustainable mode of work travels. A community-based affordances perspective
Get PDFA combination of business-to-business car sharing and electric cars—shared electric cars (SECs)—has the potential to significantly reduce emissions from local travels during work time in organisations. In this paper, we analyse the uptake of SECs in two communities of mobile workers in Norway based on a combination of community of practice and affordances theories. The term community-based affordance is coined to describe how new mobility technologies are enacted and made sense of in the community, leading to transformations in work and mobility practices. Five community-based affordances are located for the SEC-system as follows: replacements of private cars, customised use of vehicles, rapid reimbursement, co-riding to meetings and commuting mode reconfigurations. Together, these affordances indicate how an SEC- system can contribute to the development of sustainable mobility practices in enterprises with many mobile workers.publishedVersio
An agenda for future Social Sciences and Humanities research on energy efficiency: 100 priority research questions
Get PDFDecades of techno-economic energy policymaking and research have meant evidence from the Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH)—including critical reflections on what changing a society’s relation to energy (efficiency) even means—have been underutilised. In particular, (i) the SSH have too often been sidelined and/or narrowly pigeonholed by policymakers, funders, and other decision-makers when driving research agendas, and (ii) the setting of SSH-focused research agendas has not historically embedded inclusive and deliberative processes. The aim of this paper is to address these gaps through the production of a research agenda outlining future SSH research priorities for energy efficiency. A Horizon Scanning exercise was run, which sought to identify 100 priority SSH questions for energy efficiency research. This exercise included 152 researchers with prior SSH expertise on energy efficiency, who together spanned 62 (sub-)disciplines of SSH, 23 countries, and a full range of career stages. The resultant questions were inductively clustered into seven themes as follows: (1) Citizenship, engagement and knowledge exchange in relation to energy efficiency; (2) Energy efficiency in relation to equity, justice, poverty and vulnerability; (3) Energy efficiency in relation to everyday life and practices of energy consumption and production; (4) Framing, defining and measuring energy efficiency; (5) Governance, policy and political issues around energy efficiency; (6) Roles of economic systems, supply chains and financial mechanisms in improving energy efficiency; and (7) The interactions, unintended consequences and rebound effects of energy efficiency interventions. Given the consistent centrality of energy efficiency in policy programmes, this paper highlights that well-developed SSH approaches are ready to be mobilised to contribute to the development, and/or to understand the implications, of energy efficiency measures and governance solutions. Implicitly, it also emphasises the heterogeneity of SSH policy evidence that can be produced. The agenda will be of use for both (1) those new to the energy-SSH field (including policyworkers), for learnings on the capabilities and capacities of energy-SSH, and (2) established energy-SSH researchers, for insights on the collectively held futures of energy-SSH research.publishedVersio
The limited influence of climate norms on leisure air travel
Get PDFThis paper adds to our understanding of how people’s climate change concern and norms influence their leisure air travel. It does so by examining the roles of Norwegians’ beliefs about climate change and emissions from air travel, their felt responsibility to limit emissions (personal norm), and expectations and behaviors of friends and family (social norms) in such travel. A representative sample of Norwegians was surveyed in 2019 and 2020 (N = 2842), based on a framework combining institutional and social-psychological perspectives. Structural equation modeling of the data reveals that leisure air travel is habituated and part of a lifestyle, supported by social norms, self-enhancement values and urban residency. Personal norms for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from flying are beginning to emerge in Norway, but their effect on leisure air travel is small and only indirect. Our findings suggest the need for interventions to complement and potentially amplify the emerging moralization process and support an evolution of new habits and travel lifestyle to limit the emissions from leisure air travel substantially. The disruption of travel habits by the COVID-19 pandemic might ease such a process.publishedVersio
Offentlige innkjøp som klimapolitisk virkemiddel: potensialet for å kutte utslipp i matsystemet
Get PDFI denne rapporten undersøker vi i hvilken grad offentlige innkjøp av mat og drikke kan benyttes som et virkemiddel for å redusere klimagassutslipp. Hvor slagkraftig offentlige innkjøp er i å bidra til kostholdsendringer og reduserte klimagassutslipp er avhengig av hvilke mål som settes innenfor offentlig virksomhet og hvordan disse målene blir implementert. Rapporten tar for seg følgende:
1) Beregning av klimaeffekter for ulike scenarier for Oslo kommune sitt mål om å halvere kjøttforbruket i kommunes kantiner og institusjoner innen utgangen av 2023
2) Oppskalering av disse resultatene til kommuner og fylkeskommuner på nasjonalt nivå
3) Analyse av gjennomførbarheten av denne typen tiltak gjennom en litteraturgjennomgang, kvalitative dybdeintervjuer med nøkkelpersoner, og en casestudie av sykehjemsetaten i Oslo kommune.
Resultatene viser at offentlig innkjøp av mat og drikke i kommuner og fylkeskommuner utgjør, med rundt 376 tusen tonn CO2-ekvivalenter, litt over 4% av de totale, samlede klimagassutslippene fra mat i Norge. Ulike scenarier som enten reduserer innkjøpt kjøttmengde eller utslippene fra innkjøpt kjøtt med 50%, viser at utslippene til matinnkjøp kan endres med mellom +2 og -20%, avhengig av hva slags kjøtt (lavutslipps- eller høyutslipps) som blir redusert og hva man erstatter denne reduksjonen med.
Ved å kombinere tiltak som adresserer kostholdsendringer, reduksjon av matsvinn og å skifte ut en del av kjøttet i blandingsprodukter med linser eller bønner, kan det oppnås en utslippsreduksjon på mellom 11 og 27% av de totale utslippene til offentlig matinnkjøp, som tilsvarer en utslippsreduksjon på mellom 40 tusen og 100 tusen tonn CO2-ekvivalenter, ved umiddelbar implementering. Virkemidlet har ytterlige potensiale ved at offentlige virksomheter kan påvirke utslipp i produksjon og andre ledd, samt i privatdrevne kantiner bla. gjennom å stille innkjøpskrav som inkluderer utslippsreduksjon. Utslippskutt gir ikke noe store konsekvenser for kostnadene, med mindre kjøtt erstattes i stor grad med belgfrukter, som kan gi en kostnadsbesparelse på rundt 8%.
Det er derimot en del viktige barrierer og forutsetninger for en slik måloppnåelse, og det er ikke en enkel løsning som passer alle. Ulike etater må ta ulike hensyn, inkludert helhetlig ernæring, økonomiske forhold og rutiner og vaner, som vil gjøre det enten lettere eller mer utfordrende å gjennomføre tiltak i f.eks. kantiner i videregående skoler enn i sykehjemsetaten. Aksept vil variere for ulike tiltak, avhengig av hvor stor endringene vil være. Blant annet er følgende forhold viktige for at tiltak kan gjennomføres med suksess:
• Overordnet vedtak med tydelige målsetninger, kommunikasjon som gir god forståelse for hvorfor tiltak gjennomføres, og klare føringer for hvordan målene skal oppnås
• Involvering og tydelig ansvarstaking på de ulike nivåene i «kommandolinjen»
• Verktøy og rutiner for å dokumentere innkjøp må tilpasses klimahensyn for å kunne bidra til økt forståelse og måloppnåelse.
• Matglede med fokus på gode smaker, og en helhetlig tilnærming med menyer som har «klima» og helsegevinster som positive
bieffekter kan gi økt aksept for endringer i matinnkjøp.
Ulike usikkerheter i tallmaterialet gjør det vanskelig å fastsette endelig klimaeffekt av offentlig innkjøp av mat og drikke, men gitt innkjøpskrav som går over landegrenser, og en foregangsrolle til det offentlige som kan inspirere det private, og påvirke holdninger utover matvalg, kan effekten bli betydelig.publishedVersio
Distinct surface response to black carbon aerosols
Get PDFFor the radiative impact of individual climate forcings, most previous studies focused on the global mean values at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), and less attention has been paid to surface processes, especially for black carbon (BC) aerosols. In this study, the surface radiative responses to five different forcing agents were analyzed by using idealized model simulations. Our analyses reveal that for greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and scattering aerosols, the surface temperature changes are mainly dictated by the changes of surface radiative heating, but for BC, surface energy redistribution between different components plays a more crucial role. Globally, when a unit BC forcing is imposed at TOA, the net shortwave radiation at the surface decreases by −5.87±0.67 W m−2 (W m−2)−1 (averaged over global land without Antarctica), which is partially offset by increased downward longwave radiation (2.32±0.38 W m−2 (W m−2)−1 from the warmer atmosphere, causing a net decrease in the incoming downward surface radiation of −3.56±0.60 W m−2 (W m−2)−1. Despite a reduction in the downward radiation energy, the surface air temperature still increases by 0.25±0.08 K because of less efficient energy dissipation, manifested by reduced surface sensible (−2.88±0.43 W m−2 (W m−2)−1) and latent heat flux (−1.54±0.27 W m−2 (W m−2)−1), as well as a decrease in Bowen ratio (−0.20±0.07 (W m−2)−1). Such reductions of turbulent fluxes can be largely explained by enhanced air stability (0.07±0.02 K (W m−2)−1), measured as the difference of the potential temperature between 925 hPa and surface, and reduced surface wind speed (−0.05±0.01 m s−1 (W m−2)−1). The enhanced stability is due to the faster atmospheric warming relative to the surface, whereas the reduced wind speed can be partially explained by enhanced stability and reduced Equator-to-pole atmospheric temperature gradient. These rapid adjustments under BC forcing occur in the lower atmosphere and propagate downward to influence the surface energy redistribution and thus surface temperature response, which is not observed under greenhouse gases or scattering aerosols. Our study provides new insights into the impact of absorbing aerosols on surface energy balance and surface temperature response.publishedVersio
Ten-year return levels of sub-daily extreme precipitation over Europe
No full textInformation on the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation is required by public authorities, civil security departments, and engineers for the design of buildings and the dimensioning of water management and drainage schemes. Especially for sub-daily resolutions, at which many extreme precipitation events occur, the observational data are sparse in space and time, distributed heterogeneously over Europe, and often not publicly available. We therefore consider it necessary to provide an impact-orientated data set of 10-year rainfall return levels over Europe based on climate model simulations and evaluate its quality. Hence, to standardize procedures and provide comparable results, we apply a high-resolution single-model large ensemble (SMILE) of the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) with 50 members in order to assess the frequency of heavy-precipitation events over Europe between 1980 and 2009. The application of a SMILE enables a robust estimation of extreme-rainfall return levels with the 50 members of 30-year climate simulations providing 1500 years of rainfall data. As the 50 members only differ due to the internal variability in the climate system, the impact of internal variability on the return level values can be quantified. We present 10-year rainfall return levels of hourly to 24 h durations with a spatial resolution of 0.11∘ (12.5 km), which are compared to a large data set of observation-based rainfall return levels of 16 European countries. This observation-based data set was newly compiled and homogenized for this study from 32 different sources. The rainfall return levels of the CRCM5 are able to reproduce the general spatial pattern of extreme precipitation for all sub-daily durations with Spearman's rank correlation coefficients >0.76 for the area covered by observations. Also, the rainfall intensity of the observational data set is in the range of the climate-model-generated intensities in 60 % (77 %, 78 %, 83 %, 78 %) of the area for hourly (3, 6, 12, 24 h) durations. This results in biases between −16.3 % (hourly) to +8.2 % (24 h) averaged over the study area. The range, which is introduced by the application of 50 members, shows a spread of −15 % to +18 % around the median. We conclude that our data set shows good agreement with the observations for 3 to 24 h durations in large parts of the study area. However, for an hourly duration and topographically complex regions such as the Alps and Norway, we argue that higher-resolution climate model simulations are needed to improve the results. The 10-year return level data are publicly available (Poschlod, 2020; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3878887).publishedVersio