CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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An Endogenous Emission Cap Produces a Green Paradox
No full textThe European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is complemented by a Market Stability Reserve (MSR). After a major revision of the EU ETS in 2018, the MSR effectively makes the supply of allowances responsive to demand. In this paper, we show that a cap-and-trade scheme with an endogenous cap, such as the EU ETS produces a green paradox. Abatement policies announced early but realized in the future are counter-effective because of the MSR, they increase cumulative emissions. We present the mechanisms in a two-period model, and then provide quantitative evidence of our result for an annual model disciplined on the price rise in the EU ETS that followed the introduction of the MSR. Our results point to the need for better coordination between different policies, such as the “European Green Deal.” We conclude with suggestions to improve the workings of an endogenous cap, ahead of the MSR review scheduled for 2021.publishedVersio
Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve?
Get PDFDespite three decades of political efforts and a wealth of research on the causes and catastrophic impacts of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise and are 60% higher today than they were in 1990. Exploring this rise through nine thematic lenses—covering issues of climate governance, the fossil fuel industry, geopolitics, economics, mitigation modeling, energy systems, inequity, lifestyles, and social imaginaries—draws out multifaceted reasons for our collective failure to bend the global emissions curve. However, a common thread that emerges across the reviewed literature is the central role of power, manifest in many forms, from a dogmatic political-economic hegemony and influential vested interests to narrow techno-economic mindsets and ideologies of control. Synthesizing the various impediments to mitigation reveals how delivering on the commitments enshrined in the Paris Agreement now requires an urgent and unprecedented transformation away from today's carbon- and energy-intensive development paradigm.publishedVersio
Business Models for Negative Emissions From Waste-to-Energy Plants
No full textNegative emissions of carbon dioxide will likely be needed to meet the <2°C warming above the pre-industrial level goal of the Paris Agreement. A major technology option is combining Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in the industry and power sectors. Biogenic waste contributes a major share for the numerous waste-to-energy plants around the world. This implies that adding a CCS facility to a waste-to-energy plant could establish a value chain for negative carbon dioxide emissions. Hence a waste-to-energy plant could deliver four services to society: waste management and avoided pollution, service district heating system, remove carbon dioxide from fossil-based waste categories, and generate negative carbon dioxide emissions from biogenic waste. A major barrier to deploying Bio-CCS at a waste-to-energy plant is a high investment and operation cost for the carbon dioxide capture plant, combined with lacking reward for the negative carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper I explore promising business models that could incentivize owners of waste-to-energy plants to install CCS facilities, assuming that government has established an infrastructure for transportation and permanent storage of carbon dioxide, as well as the basic framework for accounting for negative emissions. The business models are either founded on waste renovation customers being able and willing to pay for the additional cost of producing negative emissions of carbon dioxide directly or through certificates, or investments in CCS being incentivized by government through a guaranteed price or tax rebates for negative emissions of carbon dioxide.publishedVersio
CO2-equivalence metrics for surface albedo change based on the radiative forcing concept: a critical review
Get PDFManagement of Earth’s surface albedo is increasingly viewed as an important climate change mitigation strategy both on (Seneviratne et al., 2018) and off (Field et al., 2018; Kravitz et al., 2018) the land. Assessing the impact of a surface albedo change involves employing a measure like radiative forcing (RF) which can be challenging to digest for decision-makers who deal in the currency of CO2- equivalent emissions. As a result, many researchers express albedo change (1α) RFs in terms of their CO2-equivalent effects, despite the lack of a standard method for doing so, such as there is for emissions of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs; e.g., IPCC AR5, Myhre et al., 2013). A major challenge for converting 1α RFs into their CO2-equivalent effects in a manner consistent with current IPCC emission metric approaches stems from the lack of a universal time dependency following the perturbation (perturbation “lifetime”). Here, we review existing methodologies based on the RF concept with the goal of highlighting the context(s) in which the resulting CO2-equivalent metrics may or may not have merit. To our knowledge this is the first review dedicated entirely to the topic since the first CO2-eq. metric for 1α surfaced 20 years ago. We find that, although there are some methods that sufficiently address the time-dependency issue, none address or sufficiently account for the spatial disparity between the climate response to CO2 emissions and 1α – a major critique of 1α metrics based on the RF concept (Jones et al., 2013). We conclude that considerable research efforts are needed to build consensus surrounding the RF “efficacy” of various surface forcing types associated with 1α (e.g., crop change, forest harvest), and the degree to which these are sensitive to the spatial pattern, extent, and magnitude of the underlying surface forcings.publishedVersio
Measuring precipitation in Eastern Himalaya: Ground validation of eleven satellite, model and gauge interpolated gridded products
No full textPrecipitation plays a key role in shaping land surface processes in Himalaya. It is also the most challenging meteorological variable to model in climate change studies due to inadequate ground data. Gridded Precipitation Products (GPPs) are useful alternatives to ground data but require validation, especially in topographically complex and wet Eastern Himalaya. This study presents a fine-scaled ground validation of eleven GPPs, including five satellite-based (GPM-IMERGV06, TRMM-3B42V7, TRMM-3B42V7RT, CHIRPS-2.0 and PERSIANN-CCS), four reanalysis model-based (ERA5, ERA5-Land, AgERA5, and WRF) and two gauge-interpolated (IMD-0.25° and APHRODITE-2V18) GPPs in Eastern Himalaya. Hourly precipitation data from 27 rain gauges (Gauges) from Sikkim, representing the Eastern Himalayan climatology, is used to statistically validate the GPPs and assess their ability to capture diurnal and seasonal patterns, and extreme events.acceptedVersio
Understanding model diversity in future precipitation projections for South America
Get PDFPrecipitation patterns are expected to change in the future climate, affecting humans through a number of factors. Global climate models (GCM) are our best tools for projecting large-scale changes in climate, but they cannot make reliable projections locally. To abate this problem, we have downscaled three GCMs with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to 50 km horizontal resolution over South America, and 10 km resolution for central Chile, Peru and southern Brazil. Historical simulations for years 1996–2005 generally compare well to precipitation observations and reanalyses. Future simulations for central Chile show reductions in annual precipitation and increases in the number of dry days at the end-of-the-century for a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, regardless of resolution and GCM boundary conditions used. However, future projections for Peru and southern Brazil are more uncertain, and simulations show that increasing the model resolution can switch the sign of precipitation projections. Differences in future precipitation changes between global/regional and high resolution (10 km) are only mildly influenced by the orography resolution, but linked to the convection parameterization, reflected in very different changes in dry static energy flux divergence, vertical velocity and boundary layer height. Our findings imply that using results directly from GCMs, and even from coarse-resolution (50 km) regional models, may give incorrect conclusions about regional-scale precipitation projections. While climate modelling at convection-permitting scales is computationally costly, we show that coarse-resolution regional simulations using a scale-aware convection parameterization, instead of a more conventional scheme, better mirror fine-resolution precipitation projections.publishedVersio
Does solar geoengineering crowd-out climate change mitigation efforts? Evidence from a stated preference referendum on a carbon tax
Get PDFSolar geoengineering is increasingly being considered a realistic approach to managing climate change. One crucial concern is whether geoengineering crowds out efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Adding to a limited body of empirical evidence, we use a survey experiment to estimate how informing the U.S. public about solar geoengineering impacts support for a proposed national carbon tax. In contrast to the crowding-out hypothesis, we find that respondents who are provided with information about geoengineering are significantly more likely to support the tax. Further, we document systematic variation as people with egalitarian and communitarian worldviews are more responsive to the information relative to those with hierarchical and individualist worldviews. Our study suggests that the availability and awareness of solar geoengineering options may lead to an increase in greenhouse gas abatement efforts.submittedVersio
Global Economic Responses to Heat Stress Impacts on Worker Productivity in Crop Production
Get PDFThe impacts of climate change on the food system are a key concern for societies and policy makers globally. Assessments of the biophysical impacts of crop productivity show modest but uncertain impacts. But crop growth is not the only factor that matters for the food production. Climate impacts on the labour force through increased heat stress also need to be considered. Here, we provide projections for the integrated climate-induced impacts on crop yields and worker productivity on the agro-economy in a global multi-sector economic model. Biophysical impacts are derived from a multi-model ensemble, which is based on a combination of climate and crop models, and the economic analysis is conducted for different socio-economic pathways. This framework allows for a comprehensive assessment of biophysical and socio-economic risks, and outlines rapid risk increases for high-warming scenarios. Considering heat effects on labour productivity, regional production costs could increase by up to 10 percentage points or more in vulnerable tropical regions such as South and South-East Asia, and Africa. Heat stress effects on labour might offset potential benefits through productivity gains due to the carbon dioxide fertilisation effect. Agricultural adaptation through increased mechanisation might allow to alleviate some of the negative heat stress effects under optimistic scenarios of socio-economic development. Our results highlight the vulnerability of the food system to climate change impacts through multiple impact channels. Overall, we find a consistently negative impact of future climate change on crop production when accounting for worker productivity next to crop yields.submittedVersio
Fossil CO2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era
Get PDFFive years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, growth in global CO2 emissions has begun to falter. The pervasive disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have radically altered the trajectory of global CO2 emissions. Contradictory effects of the post-COVID-19 investments in fossil fuel-based infrastructure and the recent strengthening of climate targets must be addressed with new policy choices to sustain a decline in global emissions in the post-COVID-19 era.publishedVersio
Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0-diagnostics for extreme events, regional and impact evaluation, and analysis of Earth system models in CMIP
Get PDFThis paper complements a series of now four publications that document the release of the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0. It describes new diagnostics on the hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact assessment, regional evaluations, and ensemble member selection. The diagnostics are developed by a large community of scientists aiming to facilitate the evaluation and comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) which are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The second release of this tool aims to support the evaluation of ESMs participating in CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6). Furthermore, datasets from other models and observations can be analysed. The diagnostics for the hydrological cycle include several precipitation and drought indices, as well as hydroclimatic intensity and indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The latter are also used for identification of extreme events, for impact assessment, and to project and characterize the risks and impacts of climate change for natural and socio-economic systems. Further impact assessment diagnostics are included to compute daily temperature ranges and capacity factors for wind and solar energy generation. Regional scales can be analysed with new diagnostics implemented for selected regions and stochastic downscaling. ESMValTool v2.0 also includes diagnostics to analyse large multi-model ensembles including grouping and selecting ensemble members by user-specified criteria. Here, we present examples for their capabilities based on the well-established CMIP Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset.publishedVersio