CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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1083 research outputs found
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Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals
Get PDFMeeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH4)-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions. By contrast, reducing CH4 emissions starts to reverse CH4-induced warming within a few decades. These differences are hidden when framing climate mitigation using annual ‘CO2-equivalent’ emissions, including targets based on aggregated annual emission rates. We show how the different warming responses to CO2 and CH4 emissions can be accurately aggregated to estimate warming by using ‘warming-equivalent emissions', which provide a transparent and convenient method to inform policies and measures for mitigation, or demonstrate progress towards a temperature goal. The method presented (GWP*) uses well-established climate science concepts to relate GWP100 to temperature, as a simple proxy for a climate model. The use of warming-equivalent emissions for nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies would enhance the transparency of stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal, compared to the use of standard equivalence methods.publishedVersio
Top-down or bottom-up? Norwegian climate mitigation policy as a contested hybrid of policy approaches
Get PDFIt is widely accepted that the Paris Agreement implies a shift in global climate mitigation policy from a top-down approach focused on global distribution of emission cuts and international cost-effectiveness to a bottom-up approach based on national efforts. Less is known about how this shift at the global level trickles down and manifests in national climate mitigation policy. Norway is in this respect an interesting example, since it has long been portrayed as an important driver of an international top-down approach. In this paper, we demonstrate that Norwegian policy cannot be characterised as a ‘pure’ top-down regime; policy instruments and measures directed at specific technology investments and deployment to complement cost-effective (international) policy instruments have been an explicit government ambition for a long time. Second, by using the case of biofuels, we analyse how the two approaches have been combined in practice over the past decade. Using the notion of ‘hybrid management’, we demonstrate that the top-down approach has left a lasting imprint on Norwegian mitigation policy, but also that this approach has increasingly been challenged by bottom-up thinking, leaving Norwegian climate mitigation policy as a contested hybrid of policy approaches. We conclude that inadequate institutional arrangements for productively managing the tensions between the two approaches have hampered progress in Norwegian policy in curbing domestic emissions. We expect that Norwegian climate mitigation will become increasingly hybridised in the coming decades, and suggest that cultivating hybridisation can be a productive approach for policy progress.publishedVersio
Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement
Get PDFTransformation pathways for the land sector in line with the Paris Agreement depend on the assumption of globally implemented greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pricing, and in some cases also on inclusive socio-economic development and sustainable land-use practices. In such pathways, the majority of GHG emission reductions in the land system is expected to come from low- and middle-income countries, which currently account for a large share of emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). However, in low- and middle-income countries the economic, financial and institutional barriers for such transformative changes are high. Here, we show that if sustainable development in the land sector remained highly unequal and limited to high-income countries only, global AFOLU emissions would remain substantial throughout the 21st century. Our model-based projections highlight that overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. While also a scenario purely based on either global GHG emission pricing or on inclusive socio-economic development would achieve the stringent emissions reductions required, only the latter ensures major co-benefits for other Sustainable Development Goals, especially in low- and middle-income regions.publishedVersio
Klimaklubbkvaler
Get PDFNorges internasjonale klimapolitikk har alltid hatt som målsetting å oppnå et mest mulig enhetlig globalt klimaregime. Parisavtalen reflekterer i stedet – og bidrar til å forsterke – et fragmentert klimaregime med et mylder av nye samarbeidsformer mellom land. I denne artikkelen trekker vi frem tre trender som preger det nye klimaregimet: et skifte fra klima- til grønn industripolitikk; økende spenning mellom klima- og handelspolitikk; og tettere sammenkobling mellom klima- og petroleumspolitikk. Vi viser hvordan nye klimaklubber både lager nye spilleregler og oppstår som motsvar til disse. Vi ønsker med dette å vise hvordan et fragmentert klimaregime fører til nye rammevilkår og utfordringer for norsk klimapolitikk. Klimaklubbkvalene omfatter både problemstillinger knyttet til hvem Norge skal samarbeide med og hvordan slikt samarbeid skal formaliseres, men også konsekvensene av å samarbeide med noen fremfor andre.publishedVersio
Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets
Get PDFAs researchers who have published over recent years on the issue of comparing the climate effects of different greenhouse gases, we would like to highlight a simple innovation that would enhance the transparency of stocktakes of progress towards achieving any multi-decade-timescale global temperature goal. In addition to specifying targets for total CO2-equivalent emissions of all greenhouse gases, governments and corporations could also indicate the separate contribution to these totals from greenhouse gases with lifetimes around 100 years or longer, notably CO2 and nitrous oxide, and the contribution from Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs), notably methane and some hydrofluorocarbons. This separate indication would support an objective assessment of the implications of aggregated emission targets for global temperature, in alignment with the UNFCCC Parties’ Decision (4/CMA.1)1 to provide “information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding” in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term low-emission development strategies (LT-LEDSs).Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targetspublishedVersio
Lessons from COVID-19 for managing transboundary climate risks and building resilience
Get PDFCOVID-19 has revealed how challenging it is to manage global, systemic and compounding crises. Like COVID-19, climate change impacts, and maladaptive responses to them, have potential to disrupt societies at multiple scales via networks of trade, finance, mobility and communication, and to impact hardest on the most vulnerable. However, these complex systems can also facilitate resilience if managed effectively. This review aims to distil lessons related to the transboundary management of systemic risks from the COVID-19 experience, to inform climate change policy and resilience building. Evidence from diverse fields is synthesised to illustrate the nature of systemic risks and our evolving understanding of resilience. We describe research methods that aim to capture systemic complexity to inform better management practices and increase resilience to crises. Finally, we recommend specific, practical actions for improving transboundary climate risk management and resilience building. These include mapping the direct, cross-border and cross-sectoral impacts of potential climate extremes, adopting adaptive risk management strategies that embrace heterogenous decision-making and uncertainty, and taking a broader approach to resilience which elevates human wellbeing, including societal and ecological resilience.publishedVersio
Explaining radical policy change: Norwegian climate policy and the ban on cultivating peatlands
Get PDFFor decades Norwegian climate policy has largely ignored the agricultural sector and focused on cost-effective emission reductions abroad. Yet in June 2020, Norway decided to ban the cultivation of peatlands to protect critical carbon sinks, and the issue became ‘high politics’. We explain this radical policy change by combining an adapted version of the Multiple Streams framework with the Punctuated Equilibrium model of agenda-setting. We argue that the two models combined can provide a holistic explanatory framework, albeit with two revisions. Firstly, the window of opportunity or punctuation was in our case of a longer duration than both models anticipate. Secondly, we find that multiple complete couplings can take place within the opening of a policy (or more specifically, a decision) window. Both findings can be explained by party competition, thus underlining the need to revise agenda-setting models to better account for party politics.publishedVersio
Global Carbon Budget 2021
Get PDFAccurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress.publishedVersio
GTAP10Nor: Adjusted GTAP database v10 based on national accounting data of Norway
Get PDFThe Model for Global Responses to Anthropogenic Changes in the Environment (GRACE) was developed for economic analysis of climate change issues including mitigation, impacts and adaptation. Since 2005, GRACE has been updated in line with the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. So far, Norway has not been a specific region in GRACE. To include Norway in a new version of GRACE, we need a GTAP database which ensures consistency with the official national accounting data of Norway. This report describes how we adjust the GTAP v. 10 data to achieve this consistency. For this purpose, we apply the official input-output (IO) table of Norway for the year 2014 and the annually updated Table 11123 of the National accounts to adjust macroeconomic data of the original GTAP database for components of GDP like production, income and expenditure. The balance between supply and demand of products is finally taken care of by introducing an additional parameter in the adjusted GTAP data as “changes in inventory” for all regions. The official energy accounts and CO2 emissions data of Norway are used to replace the corresponding data of Norway in the GTAP database.publishedVersio
EUs grønne giv: Status etter sommeren 2022 og mulige implikasjoner for Norge
Get PDFKlimaregelverket er en sentral del av EUs grønne giv og klima- og energipakken ‘Fit for 55’. En 2021-rapport fra CICERO mfl. analyserte Europakommisjonens (kommisjonens) foreslåtte endringer av klimaregelverket og mulige implikasjoner for Norge. Denne rapporten ser på hvordan Ministerrådet (rådet) og Europaparlamentet (parlamentet) har behandlet forslagene i løpet av juni og juli 2022, og oppdaterer 2021-analysen. Rapporten vurderer også hvordan krigen i Ukraina og EUs «REPowerEU»-melding påvirker forslagene. Alle forslagene ser nå ut til å bli vedtatt, uten radikale endringer fra kommisjonens opprinnelige forslag. Rådet beholder stort sett anbefalingene fra kommisjonen, mens parlamentet skrur opp ambisjonene. Hvor kontroversielle forslagene kan bli for Norge sin del avhenger derfor av trilogforhandlingene. Krigen i Ukraina øker heller enn demper ambisjonene i den grønne given. Tempoet og detaljnivået i EUs energiplaner står i sterk kontrast til Norges.publishedVersio