NUPI Research Online (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs)
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Norway and Russia in the Arctic: New Cold War Contamination?
Get PDFThe standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine has already obstructed cooperation across a range of issues. Could it also affect state interaction between Norway and Russia in the Arctic—an area and a relationship long characterized by a culture of compromise and/or cooperation? Here we start from the theoretical premise that states are not pre-constituted political entities, but are constantly in the making. How Russia views its own role and how it views other actors in the Arctic changes over time, calling for differing approaches. That holds true for Norway as well. To clarify the premises for interaction between Russia and Norway in the Arctic, we scrutinize changes in official discourse on Self and Other in the Arctic on both sides in the period 2012 to 2016, to establish what kind of policy mode—“realist,” “institutionalist,” or “diplomatic management”—has underlain the two countries’ official discourse in that period. Has Norway continued to pursue “balancing” policies undertaken in the realist mode with those in the diplomatic management mode? Which modes have characterized Russia’s approach toward Norway? Finding that realist-mode policies increasingly dominate on both sides, in the conclusion we discuss how the changing mode of the one state affects that of the other, and why a New Cold War is now spreading to the Arctic.Norway and Russia in the Arctic: New Cold War Contamination?publishedVersio
European Defence and Third Countries after Brexit
Get PDFThe UK’s departure from the European Union has given energy to the process towards ‘ever closer Union’ in the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Many policies and initiatives have been brought to the table in the aftermath of the referendum that created shock waves in Europe. This policy brief takes stock of the developments in European defence integration since the Brexit referendum in June 2016. Contrary to the dominant political and public debate about those developments, and the political optimism inside the EU, the brief identifies some key obstacles towards expanded European defence integration. With the UK’s exit from the EU, the ‘third country’ role in the CSDP will inevitably be altered, as one of the largest military powers in Europe will stand outside of the EU. For current third countries – like Norway and Iceland – this should lead to caution regarding immediate participation and a pragmatic approach to the developments. Energy and resources should not be invested before post-Brexit institutions and practices have been established.publishedVersio
Inside Russia’s Imperial Relations: The Social Constitution of Putin-Kadyrov Patronage
Get PDFThis article analyses how Moscow has extended its rule over Chechnia since the beginning of this century. Within the larger understanding of this rule as imperial in form, the current distinct contractual relation between the Russian center and Chechnia is substantiated as one based on kinship. I argue that the Putin-Kadyrov relationship is a generic case of a patronage but highlight the local imprint that such relations acquire by tracing how Chechen kinship practices inform this case.acceptedVersio
The Fisheries Sector in Ghana: A Political Economy Analysis
No full textThe fishery sector of Ghana is beset with problems, including widespread illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing.This report analyses the political economy of fisheries in Ghana, focusing on the power and interests of key actors in the sector and the constraints and opportunities faced by the government in addressing the existing challenges. There are three main challenges facing the sector. The first is limited administrative capacity, including limited knowledge of actual catches. The second is a lack of trust in authorities and lack of alternative livelihoods for fishing communities. The third and most important is that there are strong political interests that prevent the implementation of more sustainable fisheries management, including risks of electoral losses and resistance from political elites who profit from overfishing.publishedVersio
Africa and UN Peace Operations: Implications for the Future Role of Regional Organisations
Get PDFOver the last decade and a half, Africa’s peace operations capacity has significantly increased. African states have deployed operations of their own and they now contribute half of all UN peacekeepers. The African Union (AU) and the UN have developed a strategic partnership that plays out at the political, policy, and operational levels, and reflects the reality that neither will deploy peace operations in Africa without close consultations and some form of cooperation with the other. While the UN peacekeeping model is not found to be well-suited to enforcement, counter-terrorism or trans-national operations, the AU, sub-regional organisations and ad hoc regional coalitions have developed capabilities designed to address these challenges. These African capabilities help relieve the pressure on the UN to conduct such operations.Africa and UN Peace Operations: Implications for the Future Role of Regional OrganisationspublishedVersio
From Liberal Peacebuilding to Stabilization and Counterterrorism
Get PDFSince the end of the Cold War, international interventions have increasingly been deployed to deal with internal conflict. Liberal peacebuilding has been a guiding concept for many of these interventions, in particular those deployed by the UN. This article argues that liberal peacebuilding is waning in importance, both as a guiding concept and in practice. After long engagements in Afghanistan and the enduring effects of the financial crisis, Western states are shifting their strategy from liberal peacebuilding to stabilization and counterterrorism. In Africa, regional ad hoc coalitions set up to fight terrorists and other armed groups are on the rise, and progressively included in UN peacekeeping operations. To examine these shifts more closely, the article focuses on the crisis in Mali since 2012 and the growing Western security presence in neighbouring Niger. The article concludes that the turn from liberal peacebuilding to stabilization and counterterrorism is likely to be counterproductive, as it will lead to more oppressive governments and more disillusioned people joining the ranks of opposition and terrorist groups, as well as undermine the UN in general and UN peace operations in particular.From Liberal Peacebuilding to Stabilization and CounterterrorismpublishedVersio
Predictive peacekeeping: opportunities and challenges
Get PDFThe time is ripe for the development of a UN early warning tool that estimates the likelihood of instability, intercommunity clashes and armed violence in areas in which UN peacekeepers operate. However, this development would require at least some initial collaboration between the UN and the scientific world. Scientists have developed advanced analytical tools to predict armed violence in recent years.1 Yet, these conflict prediction tools still cannot be utilized to their full potential because of a relatively poor quality of conflict data. It is precisely in the area of high quality conflict data that the UN has a strong comparative advantage,2 especially now that the Situational Awareness Geospatial Enterprise (SAGE) system is being implemented. SAGE is a web-based database system that allows UN military, police and civilians in UN peace operations (both UN peacekeeping operations and special political missions) to log incidents, events and activities. The development of SAGE has made it possible to leverage state of the art methodological tools to enable predictive peacekeeping. This policy brief provides background to the recent turn to using data in UN peacekeeping missions, suggestions for what an early warning tool based on SAGE data would look like, and discusses the practical and ethical challenges of such an early warning tool.Predictive peacekeeping: opportunities and challengespublishedVersio
How the New Cold War travelled North (Part II) Interaction between Norway and Russia
Get PDFThis policy brief examines changing Russian and Norwegian approaches to each other in the period 2012–2016, and discusses how the “New Cold War” spread to the North. This is an intriguing question, since both parties had initially stated that, despite the overall worsening of Russia–West relations following the crises in Ukraine, the North should be protected as a space for peaceful interaction. To address this question, watching and tracking the changing patterns of Russian exercises and military modernization is not enough; understanding the rise in tensions requires studying the effects of the interactions underway between the parties in this region. Three interaction effects need to be taken into consideration in explaining why the tense relations following the conflict in Ukraine spread to the low-tension Northern theatre. In this, we stress the interactive dynamics that ensues when two parties start to view each other as threats, interpreting new moves by the other as expressions of hostile intent. Further, we explain the observed New Cold War “contamination” with reference to domestic policy agendas and practices of decision-making. On both the Norwegian and the Russian sides, the new military posturing in the North, now interpreted as part of a growing conflict, has emerged partly as a side-effect of implementing what actually were longstanding national goals.How the New Cold War travelled North (Part II) Interaction between Norway and RussiapublishedVersio
Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis. Landanalyserapport
No full textReport commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.publishedVersio
Geopolitikk og oljefondet
No full textOljefondet har hatt sin «oppvekst» innenfor en trygg og stabil global orden. Det første innskuddet kom i 1996, i god tid etter Berlin-murens fall. Fondet har vært en stor suksess, men det har også gjort at Norge er mer eksponert for globale endringer enn før. Den internasjonale orden er nå i en brytningstid. Demokratiske systemer er under press, globalisering og åpne marked møter motstand. USAs rolle, som leder og systemgarantist, er også i forandring. USA er mer negativ til viktige elementer i internasjonalt samarbeid, som WTO og FN. Spenningene øker også i forholdet mellom USA og Kina, verdens viktigste økonomiske og politiske relasjon. I den nye amerikanske sikkerhetsstrategi er Kina beskrevet som strategisk rival. Mange ser på handelskrigen mellom som USAs forsøk på å demme opp for, eller redusere, Kinas geopolitiske innflytelse. Endringene i det globale politiske og økonomiske system endrer også rammene for Oljefondet. Jeg mener derfor tiden er overmoden for å utrede forholdet mellom fondet og geopolitiske risikofaktorer. Vi bør kartlegge dagens risikoeksponering, analysere hvordan globale skifter endrer risikobildet, og vi må vurdere om dagens retningslinjer er egnet.publishedVersio