NUPI Research Online (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs)
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Stormaktsinteresser og sikkerhetspolitiske utviklingstrekk i Arktis. Mulige implikasjoner for Norge
publishedVersio
Avskrekke hvem? Betydningen av strategisk kultur for cybersikkerhet
Det er en pågående debatt i akademia om hvorvidt og hvordan man kan benytte avskrekkingsteori i cyberdomenet. Avskrekking var originalt en teori utviklet for å unngå konvensjonell eller nukleær krig. I diskusjonen om cybersikkerhet har det blitt påpekt en rekke tekniske problemer med å overføre en teori fra den fysiske verden til cyberdomenet. Vi anerkjenner disse tekniske utfordringene ved avskrekking i cyberdomenet, men i denne artikkelen ønsker vi å belyse et annet aspekt ved avskrekking, nemlig samspillet mellom sosiale og tekniske faktorer ved avskrekking i cyberdomenet. I denne artikkelen vil vi diskutere hvordan avskrekking som strategi i cyberdomenet vil påvirkes av den spesifikke strategiske kulturen i et land. For å belyse argumentet vil vi benytte Kina som en casestudie. Motsetninger mellom kinesisk og «vestlig» strategisk kultur resulterer i konkrete forskjeller i hvordan Kina og vestlige land agerer i cyberdomenet. Ved å benytte fire komponenter av avskrekkingsteori (nektelse, gjengjeldelse, gjensidig avhengighet og normer) ønsker vi å vise hvordan en dyptgående innsikt i en stats sikkerhetspolitikk og strategiske kultur kan anvendes til å skreddersy en mer effektiv avskrekkingsstrategi og styrke evnen til å forhindre uønsket aktivitet.publishedVersio
The Relationship Between Narratives and Security Practices: Pushing the Boundaries of Military Instruments in Japan
Japanese security policy has undergone significant changes lately. Japanese policymakers have recently argued over advancing Japan’s Self-Defense Forces with new weapon systems. In particular, the Abe government has decided to pur- chase long-range cruise missiles for its new F-35A jetfighters, and to reconstruct a newly-built helicopter carrier into an aircraft carrier. While specific policy proposals continued di- viding policymakers and other stakeholders, the underlying story specifying Japan’s place in East Asia, the rise of China, the threat of North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs, the tight security relationship with the United States and the vulnerability of the Japanese archipelago has faced lit- tle core criticism. The lack of alternative national security narratives suggests the emergence of a Japanese security consensus in the mid-2010s. The strength of the narrative in deterring policymakers to refrain from critique, through the significant costs incurred by opposition, could also sug- gest a hegemonic narrative (but not necessarily a consensus). We find that the dominant narrative provided a necessary foundation for unorthodox policy proposals, which arguably enabled the Abe government to push through military in- strument expansions in the Self-Defense Forces, a move far from politically sustainable only a decade earlier.acceptedVersio
Protection, Prevention, and the Primacy of Politics. Evaluating the Effectiveness of Peace Operations
submittedVersio
50 Years After the Moon Landing:Why Europe Should Lead the Next 50
50 years since the first astronauts stepped foot on the moon, it would be easy to be complacent about human space exploration today. After all, humans have not ventured out of low-earth orbit since 1972. Achievements in space since the Apollo missions have flown under the radar for most of the regular public. However, the world is actually in a very different place now than it was 50 years ago, when the Soviet Union and United States were the sole spacefaring powers. Today, 72 countries have space programs, 14 have launch capability, and six have highly developed space capabilities (China, Europe, India, Japan, the US, and Russia). Space agencies, private commercial entities, international organizations, amateur space enthusiasts, multi-national corporations, and public-private partnerships comprise the diverse landscape of actors involved in space today. The total global space economy is estimated to be well over $383.5 billion.1 In particular, the European space industry is one of the largest in the world, and contributes around €53-62 billion to the European economy. Manufacturing is a significant part of this, with European companies producing around one-third of the world’s satellites.2 Within 10 years, it is expected that there will be a thriving low-earth orbit eco-system, space tourism, a permanent moon base, and shortly thereafter, a manned trip to Mars.50 Years After the Moon Landing:Why Europe Should Lead the Next 50publishedVersio
BRI in Central Asia: People-to-People Projects
Along with financing hard infrastructure projects, Beijing also promotes soft power projects in the form of people-to-people initiatives. However, such projects are low priority within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)in Central Asia. The Confucius Institutes, which appear to be an important vehicle for Chinese soft power in the region, are not directly linked to BRI and were launched before and independently of BRI.BRI in Central Asia: People-to-People ProjectspublishedVersio
The Politics of Stability: Cement and Change in Cyber Affairs
Stability is a delicate attribute of public international order. If pursued to its absolute, it could paralyse the development and progress of humankind. If marginalized, it could fuel injustice, violence and conflict. Several differing concepts of ‘stability’ can be identified in international affairs. The United Nations Security Council uses the term to express a desirable state of affairs, almost synonymous with the concept of ‘peace’. In a 1992 ‘Note by the President of the Security Council’, various sources of instability were seen as threatening peace and security. The Council recognized that otherwise welcomed political changes may bring new risks to stability and security, especially stemming from changes to state structures. As the Council observed, ‘non-military sources of instability in the economic, social, humanitarian and ecological fields’ had become threats to peace and security.1 Similarly, in 2005 the Council discussed the food crisis in Africa as a threat to peace, security and stabilityThe Politics of Stability: Cement and Change in Cyber AffairspublishedVersio
Religious authority and the 2018 parliamentary elections in Iraq
This research brief analyzes the discursive production of, and political struggle over, religious authority in Shia Iraq. It examines Friday sermons held in the run-up to the May 2018 parliamentary elections.publishedVersio
Finding a European response to Huawei’s 5G ambitions
This policy brief suggests that European countries should institute national reviewing boards overseen by intelligence agencies to vet Huawei equipment. If that is not feasible due to a lack of resources or capabilities especially among smaller countries, European governments should consider pooling resources and create a common reviewing board. This would also prevent duplication of efforts on national levels. European authorities should also demand from Huawei to clearly separate its international from its domestic business operations in order to further reduce the risk to the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of European mobile networks.Finding a European response to Huawei’s 5G ambitionspublishedVersio
Improving Future Ocean Governance – Governance of Global Goods in an Age of Global Shifts
In the paper we spell out recommendations that we consider realistic, effective, and consistent with the priorities of the Japanese presidency of the G20.As a gathering of coastal states, under Japan’s presidency the G20 will specifically work to reduce marine plastic pollution and support marine biodiversity. This policy paper highlights how oceans are governed spaces and points to the key role of the oceans in realizing the SDGs. We argue that the G20 can and should play an important role in addressing major governance gaps in ensuring the sustainable management of oceans.publishedVersio