NUPI Research Online (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs)
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When do petrostates diversify their exports? Urgency, interests, and policy design in Egypt, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia
Full text linkMotivation: The need to diversify their economies is an enduring challenge for fossil fuel-dependent countries, one which will become evermore important as the world seeks to decarbonize. But the conditions under which major oil-producing countries (petrostates) seek to diversify their exports—and those under which their attempts succeed—are poorly understood.Purpose: This article tests competing explanations for the successes and failures of petrostates' export diversification. Methods and approach: We employ a comparative case study approach using qualitative evidence from two comparatively successful diversification cases—Egypt and Malaysia—and one less successful case—Kazakhstan—selected using a Theil index of export concentration. Findings: The evidence indicates that Egypt and Malaysia's more successful outcomes stemmed more from necessity and policy design than from differences in domestic institutions and interests. All three countries were motivated to diversify by price volatility and declining revenues at various points from the 1980s to the 2000s and beyond, but reserve depletion was a greater threat in Egypt and Malaysia. As such, they adopted a more balanced approached to diversification, one that combined liberalization with state intervention. Policy implications: These cases suggest that petrostates may be will-ing and able to diversify as the global shift toward renewables raises the prospect of unburnable oil reserves. Petrostates can diversify efficiently by using a basket of policies that includes a mix of economic liberalization and government intervention to create investment and incentives in non-oil tradeable sectors and nurture infant industries. Opposition to reforms in petrostates can be addressed by selectively compensating vested interests.When do petrostates diversify their exports? Urgency, interests, and policy design in Egypt, Kazakhstan, and MalaysiapublishedVersio
Regulating production rather than consumption? Comparing the challenges of supply-side and demand-side climate agreements
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How Ad Hoc Coalitions Deinstitutionalize International Institutions
Full text linkAs ad hoc coalitions (AHCs) proliferate, particularly on the African continent, two questions crystallize. First, what consequences do they bring about for the existing institutional security landscape? And second, how can the trend of AHCs operating alongside instead of inside regional organizations be captured and explored conceptually? To answer these questions, we closely examine the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) fighting Boko Haram and its changing relationship to the African Union (AU). Through the case study and a review of policy and academic literatures, the article launches the concept of deinstitutionalization and how it can be characterized. We identify three features of deinstitutionalization – AHCs can bypass standard procedures for decision-making processes; whittle down established institutional scripts, and shift resource allocations. We detail how the AHCs contribute to changing practices of financing international peace and security operations, with an examination of EU and UN policies and practices. In sum, the paper unwraps the processes of deinstitutionalization and identifies three forms of rationales for this process – lack of problem-solving capacity, limited adaptability and path dependency.How Ad Hoc Coalitions Deinstitutionalize International InstitutionspublishedVersio
The Multilateral System: Between Reform and Deinstitutionalization
No full textGlobal governance is changing fast. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza are amplifying geopolitical tensions. The transaction costs of coming to an agreement at the United Nations (UN) are going up; additionally, states more often seek solutions outside of the multilateral system in smaller, more informal formats.The Multilateral System: Between Reform and DeinstitutionalizationpublishedVersionpublishedVersio
Polen og krigen i Ukraina: Er stemningen i ferd med å snu?
Full text linkHovedmålet med denne artikkelen er å kartlegge hvordan den russiske invasjonen av Ukraina har påvirket polske holdninger og dermed polsk politikk. Artikkelen begynner med en grundig gjennomgang av polakkenes holdninger til Ukraina, ukrainere og krigen. Her analyseres det også hvorvidt polakkenes holdninger skiller seg fra holdninger i andre NATO- og EU-land. Denne analysen av holdninger er etterfulgt av en eklektisk analyse av tiltak polske styresmakter har satt i gang i respons til krigen basert på forskjellige forståelser av krefter som former internasjonale relasjoner med stor vekt lagt på forklaringer forankret i de realistiske, liberal-institusjonelle og konstruktivistiske forståelser av internasjonale relasjoner.Polen og krigen i Ukraina: Er stemningen i ferd med å snu?publishedVersio
Introduksjon: Krig i Europa: Hvor betydelig endres europeisk sikkerhetspolitikk?
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War in Europe and French Contributions to European Security
No full textEtter den russiske invasjonen av Ukraina 24. februar 2022 har flere europeiske land måttet revurdere sin sikkerhets- og forsvarspolitikk. Dette gjelder også Frankrike. Selv om endringen i fransk sikkerhet- og forsvarspolitikk ikke representere et regelrett brudd med tidligere politikk, har trusselen fra øst nå fått økt betydning også for fransk forsvarsplanlegging. De viktigste endringene i fransk sikkerhets- og forsvarspolitikk er knyttet til en omlegging av Russlandspolitikken, økning i støtten til Ukraina, og sist, men ikke minst en endret trusselvurdering og en betydelig økning i forsvarsbudsjettene. Med Russland aggresjon og usikkerhet rundt amerikansk langsiktig forpliktelse til europeisk sikkerhet, har Frankrikes fokus på strategisk autonomi også fått bredere støtte blant de europeiske allierte.Krig i Europa og franske bidrag til europeisk sikkerhetpublishedVersio
Exporting Radicalization and Strengthening Resilience: Tunisia and Kosovo
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Traditional Authority and Local Community Resilience: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, and Syria
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‘Here, I’m a Syrian in Erbil’: Identities and Livelihoods of the Syrian Refugees in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
Full text linkThis chapter examines the livelihood and identities of the Syrian self-settled refugees living in Erbil city, the capital of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Although our case analyses a population of only a few more than fifty thousand people, it is worthy of scholarly attention for several reasons. The urban refugees in the KRI are vastly understudied, as they are hard for field researchers and humanitarian organizations to reach. Official statistics on urban refugees are largely unavailable in Iraq. The focus of scholars and aid agencies has been on refugees settled in camps. However, recently urban non-camp refugees have become not only more numerous, but also a focal point of humanitarian organizations and scholars. This chapter analyses a case of intraethnic relations, which are more common in Syria’s neighbouring areas. Understanding the integration of Syrians with their host communities is not only vital to assessing the humanitarian situation of the Syrians, but also to understanding the reformulation of inter- and intra-ethnic relations in a sectarianized new Middle East. To curb the reach of the tumultuous Arab Spring in 2011 and keep themselves in place, authoritarian regimes across the Middle East resorted to sectarian narratives. In countries with religious and ethnic diversity, the Shia–Sunni sectarian line was used to prevent the formulation of cross-sectarian oppositions and polarize communities. Sectarianism coloured trajectories of displacement and return as well. Shiites in Iraq mostly fled to areas inhabited by their co-religionists, as did Sunnis. Returning families in Syria were found to be brought in from the Shiite community of Iraq and Lebanon in place of the displaced Sunnis. Based on original field data – a survey conducted in Erbil in March 2020 (N = 152), key informant interviews with relevant stakeholders and in-depth life story interviews with refugees conducted by the authors in Erbil – this chapter shows that these refugees are in a more dire situation and in more need of protection than most aid agencies think, especially during shocks and crises. Although the permissive policies in place in the KRI have created a favourable market environment where Syrians can access public services, establish business and move freely within the KRI, the lack of legal protection puts refugees up against economic hardship on the ground. Moreover, Syrians may face differential treatment while receiving services, an aspect that could bring into question the rhetoric of successful assimilation into the host community often touted by local authorities and the UNHCR. However, differential treatment and access to state services is systemic also for Iraqi Kurds in the KRI, due to the pervasiveness of wasta and patronage. Despite sharing a common ethnic bond, Kurdish Syrian refugees in Erbil also often feel a sense of alienation emanating from an othering label of ‘Syrians’ commonly used by the host community. The experience of displacement and the lack of protection have created significant vulnerabilities among the Syrian Kurdish refugees in Erbil. Being Syrian nationals, ethnic Kurds and refugees or displaced persons creates a compounded identity that is different from that of the Kurdish Iraqi host population. This comes into play when Syrians need to access state services and in relation to gender roles. Importantly, our study analyses livelihood during a period of economic crisis and external shocks in the Kurdistan Region, due to the economic downturn in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region following the decline in oil prices from 2014 and the conflict between Baghdad and Erbil over sharing oil resources. The economy was also affected by the war against ISIS between 2014 and 2017 and the pressure of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout.‘Here, I’m a Syrian in Erbil’: Identities and Livelihoods of the Syrian Refugees in the Kurdistan Region of IraqpublishedVersio