NUPI Research Online (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs)
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Russia’s view of Georgia: a NATO proxy yet again?
Get PDFAfter the crises in Ukraine, and despite the Georgian government’s allegedly more pragmatic attitude towards Russia, official statements from Moscow increasingly project Georgia as hostile. This may be the result of the Kremlin stepping up a propaganda campaign to put pressure on Georgia, but it is also linked to growing perceptions of Georgia as becoming an agent of NATO. Moreover, Russia’s increasingly insistent rhetorical and practical support for the independent status of the two Georgian breakaway republics, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is still framed with reference to Kosovo as a tit-for-tat in a conflict with the West. In parallel with this hardening in Russian views, there is hardly any diplomatic contact between Russia and Georgia. The regional multilateral frameworks have become dysfunctional, obstructed by polarization. Further Georgian NATO integration could entail an increasing risk of war, unless frank discussions and engagement with Russia can be promoted.publishedVersio
China, India and the political economy of medical supplies
Get PDF• The pandemic and lockdowns threaten the supply of medicines, especially from India • Poor countries relying on supplies of cheap Indian medicines are especially vulnerable • New medicines and vaccines are likely to be developed and patented by Western companies and will be expensive. • Norway should help fund the supply of medicines and promote reforms of patent rules to make medicines more affordablepublishedVersio
Common Fears, Common Opportunities? Czechia and Norway in the changing international context
Get PDFThe policy brief is a result of conclusions from roundtable discussions with policy makers and researchers that took place in Prague and Oslo in late 2019 and early 2020. The researchers studied how to better respond to fear factors and move beyond them in foreign policy. A key observation made in the new brief is that while changes in American, Chinese and Russian foreign policies may trigger anxiety and uncertainty among smaller European states, fears like this can also have productive effects on foreign policy thinking and practice. For states like Czechia and Norway, it can create opportunities for re-thinking support networks and reaching out to new partners.With long-dominant structures in flux, European states – and perhaps smaller ones in particular – are now forced to rethink their foreign policy approaches and practices. This policy briefs outlines how one small Northern European state, Norway, and one Central European state, Czechia, assess and respond to a changing international political context. While located in different geopolitical settings, and with different histories, political systems and resources at their disposal, Norway and Czechia operate under many of the same international framework conditions. How are Norwegian and Czech officials and policy makers evaluating contemporary developments? What do they identify as the key fears to which they must respond? Which partners and institutional structures have they traditionally relied on – and what indications of change (if any) can we now observe? We find that Norway and Czechia face many common fears – from concerns about the international order and their global sense of place, to challenges to key institutions such as NATO and the EU, and concerning specific issues such as climate change, energy security, territorial security, and how to best respond to migration. We argue that these common fears could provide a springboard to greater cooperation that can diversify Czechia and Norway’s support networks and entrench a greater sense of international belonging for both countries.publishedVersio
Meningsfull,menneskelig, kontroll?
Get PDFDenne rapproten tar for seg konseptet «meningsfull menneskelig kontroll» som har dukket opp som det førende temaet i debatten rundt autonomi og våpensystemer. For å belyse spørsmålet om hva menneskelig kontroll er, hvordan det bør forstås og hvordan man kan «sikre» det må vi tenke nytt rundt forholdet mellom mennesker og maskiner. Ikke bare se maskiner som vertøy som mennesker kan bruke av fri vilje, men snarere se på autonome systemer i sin helhet der de gjensidige relasjonene mellom mennesker og maskin former hverandre og gir opphav til nye måter å tenke og handle på. Altså at både mennesker og maskiner forandres i møte mellom dem. Gitt en slik vinkling åpner man også for muligheten for å belyse dagens debatt om autonomi og kontroll på nye måter. Ikke minst at den utøvende fasen av en operasjon, liv og død-avgjørelser, er et for snevert nedslagsfelt hvis vi skal forstå hva kontroll er og hvordan det utøves. Vikitgheten av dette blir illustrert via en gjennomgang av prosessene og praksisene rundt militær targeting. En prosess der militæret definerer mål og beslutter operasjoner. Gjennom denne illustrasjonen ser man at beslutningstaking ikke bare er ett valg gjort på et bestemt tidspunkt, som avgjørelsen om å sende et missil mot et bestemt mål, men noe som er avledet av en rekke valg gjort over tid. Dette åpner opp for å se på beslutningstaking og dermed også kontroll som et resultat av en rekke praksiser og prosesser, distribuert over flere faser, mellom diverse elementer, der noen valg blir foretrukket fremfor andre. Et slikt fokus setter søkelys på de mer sammensatte og komplekse teknologiske systemene for datainnhenting, analyse og lagring, som spiller en nøkkelrolle i utformingen av valg og beslutninger, men som ofte blir neglisjert. Hvis vi bedre forstår hvordan disse systemene fungerer, hvordan de produserer kunnskap, hva de legger vekt på og hva de utelater, kan vi øke vår forståelse av kontroll og bedre «sikre» de etiske, legale og strategisk-politiske sider ved økende autonomisering av militære teknologier.publishedVersio
The Geopolitics of Fish in the Arctic
Get PDFClimate change and declining sea-ice in the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) has brought concerns that fish stocks may expand into the high Arctic. While the sub-Arctic seas of the North Pacific and the North Atlantic have abundant fish resources subject to major commercial fisheries for generations, the CAO has little or none. Concerns that fish stocks could expand into the CAO provided the impetus for negotiating the 2018 Agreement to Prevent Unregulated Fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean. This policy brief discusses efforts to address challenges associated with climate change and fish in the Arctic, and makes recommendations for policy action.publishedVersio
Covid-19 og globalisering: Et fattigdomsperspektiv på turisme og inntektsoverføring fra migranter
Get PDF• Reduserte inntektsoverføringer og fall i turisme vil ha effekter for de norske hovedsamarbeidslandene. • Effektene er store og vil trolig vare en tid (flere år). • Bortfall av turisme kan i disse landene ramme 9 millioner direkte, og 23 millioner i et bredere perspektiv. • Fall i inntektsoverføringer kan ha store negative effekter, og er spesielt viktig for Nepal, Ghana, Myanmar og Uganda. • Økonomiske tiltak i OECD-landene er innrettet slik at de kompenserer arbeidsfolk og små bedrifter for tap som følge av nedstenging av aktivitetene de lever av. Et lignende prinsipp kan legges til grunn for kortsiktig bistand for å avverge at flere faller under fattigdomsgrensen.publishedVersio
Biowar next? Security implications of the coronavirus
Get PDFIn this Strategic Update, Karsten Friis investigates the pandemic's potential consequences for the world, its armed forces, the integration of Europe, US-China relations, as well as the concept and practice of 'war' more broadly. Although much remains uncertain, the disruptions which are beginning to emerge demand a reckoning with a changed world -- and world order.publishedVersio
In the shadow of the virus Varieties of power in the COVID-19 crisis in Venezuela
Get PDFWhile all states face massive challenges when responding to COVID-19, some are in a more precarious position than others. In Venezuela, the pandemic arrived at the worst possible time for its citizens. Facing one of the deepest economic crises outside of wartime in recent years, its consequences have spilled over to all aspect of social life.1 However, the timing seems to have suited the leaders of the Venezuelan regime well. Rather than constituting a threat to the stability of a regime that has lost both democratic legitimacy and the capacity to provide services and security, the government of Nicolas Maduro (2013-present) has seemingly managed to consolidate itself after several years of instability.2 The starting point of the discussion is an apparent paradox: how can a regime with neither legitimacy nor capacity, two commonly invoked criteria for effective crisis management, strengthen itself during a crisis such as that spurred by COVID-19? The brief presents an overview of how the Venezuelan regime has responded to COVID-19, and how the government of Nicolás Maduro has applied different strategies to consolidate a favorable political status quo. It takes as its starting point three concepts, namely “state capacity,” “legitimacy,” and “power,” all of which are frequently upheld as fundamental for understanding the varying ways in which states have responded to the pandemic. It highlights how relative power relations have shifted in recent years, and how the pandemic has contributed to skewing the balance of power further in favor of the Maduro government.publishedVersio
