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The Emerging Economy India: The effect of macroeconomic factors on real estate prices in the Indian Property market
Get PDFMasteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business, Finance - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024This master's thesis investigates how the macroeconomic variables GDP, REER, and interest rates influence housing prices in India during the period from 2010 to 2023. Utilizing various models, we conclude that interest rates and GDP affect changes in housing prices. Interestingly, the direction of these effects can contradict economic expectations: an increase in interest rates will increase housing prices, whereas an increase in GDP will decrease housing prices. Notably, the relationship between GDP and housing prices changes when
excluding the Covid-19 years, highlighting an expected positive effect on housing prices. This emphasizes how an unexpected economic shock can alter the balance between variables. The shock into the REER showed a behavior change when including and excluding Covid 19. The lower interest rates could explain this during the Covid period and the uncertainty caused by the pandemic. Furthermore, our VECM analysis reveals that there exists a long-term relationship between the variables, and housing prices tend to revert to a long-term equilibrium after deviations. We conclude that GDP, interest rates, and REER influence housing prices, but these variables alone do not fully explain housing price movements
Plausible futures for the Norwegian offshore energy sector: Business as usual, harvest or rebuild?
Get PDFThe global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian petroleum sector, a major factor in the country's economy, now facing financial climate risk and long-term declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sector-economic variables. We find that rebuilding by investing moderately in green offshore energy production could reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking indicators for energy transitioning in producer countries.publishedVersio
Political leaders' identity leadership and civic citizenship behavior: The mediating role of trust in fellow citizens and the moderating role of economic inequality
Get PDFIdentity leadership involves leaders creating and promoting a sense of shared group membership (a sense of 'we' and 'us') among followers. The present research report tests this claim by drawing on data from 26 countries that are part of the Global Identity Leadership Development (GILD) project to examine the relationship between political leaders' identity leadership and civic citizenship behavior (N = 6,787). It also examines the contribution of trust and economic inequality to this relationship. Political leaders' identity leadership (PLIL) was positively associated with respondents' people-oriented civic citizenship behaviors (CCB-P) in 20 of 26 countries and civic citizenship behaviors aimed at one's country (CCB-C) in 23 of 26 countries. Mediational analyses also confirmed the indirect effects of PLIL via trust in fellow citizens on both CCB-P (in 25 out of the 26 countries) and CCB-C (in all 26 countries). Economic inequality moderated these effects such that the main and indirect effects of trust in one's fellow citizens on CCB-C were stronger in countries with higher economic inequality. This interaction effect was not observed for CCB-P. The study highlights the importance of identity leadership and trust in fellow citizens in promoting civic citizenship behavior, especially in the context of economic inequality.Political leaders' identity leadership and civic citizenship behavior: The mediating role of trust in fellow citizens and the moderating role of economic inequalitypublishedVersio
Verdsettelse av Norsk Hydro
Get PDFBacheloroppgave i Økonomi og administrasjon fra Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024Hensikten med denne oppgaven har vært å gjennomføre en verdsettelse av Hydro
per 30.04.2024 ved å svare på følgende problemstilling: «Hva er Hydros
fundamentale aksjeverdi per 30. april 2024 vurdert fra et eksternt
investorperspektiv? Og bør en fiktiv investor kjøpe, selge eller holde en aksje i
Hydro?»
For å svare på denne problemstillingen har det først blitt gjennomført en
presentasjon av Hydro og om aluminiumsbransjen. Deretter har de
makroøkonomiske, konkurransemessige og interne faktorene blitt undersøkt og
analysert gjennom en omfattende strategisk analyse. Det har her blitt utført en
PESTEL analyse, Porters Five Forces og en VRIO analyse, før en
oppsummerende SWOT analyse ble satt opp.
Deretter ble regnskapstallene til Hydro og bransjen reformulert for å bedre skille
mellom operasjonell og finansiell verdiskapning. Denne reformuleringen la videre
grunnlaget for en lønnsomhetsanalyse, en likviditetsanalyse og en
soliditetsanalyse.
Den strategiske analysen og regnskapsanalysen dannet grunnlaget for
fremtidsprognosene, der de fremtidige frie kontantstrømmene ble estimert. WACC
ble funnet til å være 9,63 % og egenkapitalavkastningen til 9,97 %.
Gjennom to ulike nåverdimodeller ble de frie kontantstrømmene neddiskontert til
nåverdi, og det ble i tillegg brukt tre ulike multippelmodeller for å forsikre seg om
at estimatene i nåverdimodellene var realistiske.
Et vektet gjennomsnitt av de ulike metodene ga en estimert aksjepris på 68,7
kroner. Svært lik den faktiske prisen i markedet den 30.04.2024 på 68,9 kroner.
Det ble så utført en sensitivitetsanalyse for å måle usikkerheten i verdsettelsen, før
det ble drøftet rundt oppgaven og konkludert. Handelsstrategien som ble anbefalt
en fiktiv investor er å holde sin posisjon i markedet, da denne oppgaven har
estimert at Hydros fundamentale aksjeverdi er lik prisen den har i markedet
An analysis of Last-Mile Stop Delivery Times with Machine Learning
Get PDFMasteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business Analytics, Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024In this thesis, we study the prediction of stop delivery times using multiple linear regression and machine learning models (Decision Tree, Random Forest, eXreme Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Regression). We analyse approximately 2.4 million deliveries over a two-year period using data from Posten Bring AS, OpenStreetMap, and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, combining quantitative data with courier interview insights. Our methodology includes data preprocessing, model training with scikit-learn, and feature interpretation using permutation importance and SHAP values. We find that factors such as the number of mailboxes at a stop, the number of ‘bag-on-door’ deliveries, and the number of ‘parcel in a mailbox’ significantly increase predicted stop delivery times, indicating that higher delivery volumes will extend overall delivery times even if the number of stops remains unchanged. In contrast, temperature and precipitation appear to have minimal impact. We conclude that it is possible to predict accurate stop delivery times without knowing the true stop/driving times by setting one to a fixed value. Additionally, we conclude that the variability in delivery times across different units suggests the need for tailored strategies in urban versus suburban areas
Gender Representation and Gender Pay Disparities in Norwegian Private Sector Firms: Analysing Organisational Hierarchies and Firm-Level Data
Get PDFMasteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Applied Economics/Masteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024This master thesis investigates gender representation and gender pay disparities
within organisational hierarchies and at the firm level in Norwegian private
sector firms. Using data collected from 202 companies mandated to report gender
equality metrics under Sections 26. and 26 a. of the Equality and Anti-
Discrimination Act, we categorise information into four hierarchical levels and a
firm level. Our findings reveal a consistent decline in female representation and
an increasing gender pay gap from lower to higher hierarchical levels. Women
constitute 30% of top management and earn 91.2% of men's base salary. Firmlevel
analysis shows women represent 34.7% of the workforce, earning 92.7% of
men's earnings. The study highlights the need for improved reporting on female
representation and gender pay disparities at hierarchical levels, as studies show
that increased transparency among firms can contribute to closing the gender pay
gap
Wavelet Decomposition in Financial Forecasting: Analyzing Term Spread Predictability on Equity Risk Premiums
Get PDFMasteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Finance - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024This thesis investigates the predictive power of the term spread of interest rates on the equity risk premium across eight countries: the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Norway, Belgium, Netherlands, and Ireland. By applying the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform we decompose the term spread into three frequency components capturing oscillations at multiple frequencies. Our findings suggest that the low-frequency component is a strong and robust out-of-sample predictor for both the U.S. and the U.K., particularly for longer forecasting horizons. In addition, the business-cycle frequency component is identified as a reliable predictor for Norway when forecasting between three months and one year ahead. For Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands, and Ireland, findings indicate that none of the frequency components serve as reliable predictors
Generasjon Z - En studie om forventninger til ledelse og motivasjon
Get PDFBacheloroppgave i Bachelor of Management/ Leadership in action fra Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024Generasjon Z er den yngste generasjonen som er i arbeidslivet og vi har i denne oppgaven ønsket å se nærmere på hva de motiveres av og hvilket syn de har på ledelse. Våre respondenter er i aldersgruppen til generasjon Z og alle kommer fra en større avdeling i en bank på Østlandet. Vi som skriver oppgaven sammen tilhører generasjon X og synes derfor det er spennende å se på forskjellen på oss og de nye kollegaene våre som er på vei inn i arbeidslivet.
Vår problemstilling er:
Hvilke forventninger har generasjon Z til ledelse og hva motiveres de av?
For å finne svar på vår problemstilling har vi gjennomført en kvalitativ undersøkelse. Vi intervjuet syv personer fra generasjon Z. Vi har drøftet funnene våre opp imot teori på ledelse og motivasjon, med hovedfokus på transformasjonsledelse og selvbestemmelsesteorien.
Våre funn besvarer vår problemstilling og vi har erfart at generasjon Z har klare forventninger til ledelse og hvordan de motiveres. De ønsker at leder skal være tilgjengelig når de trenger hjelp, men vil ikke bli kontrollert. De vil ha kontinuerlige tilbakemeldinger, uten at det blir for ofte. Leder skal være rollemodell og holde ord. Når det gjelder motivasjon, viser våre funn at de både er indre og ytre motivert siden de største motivasjonsfaktorene er personlig utvikling og lønn. Selvbestemmelsesteorien sier at de mest fornøyde medarbeidere er indre motivert, så funnet fra våre respondenter støtter faktisk kritikken av selvbestemmelsesteorien som sier at flere motivasjonsfaktorer ikke må være gjensidig utelukkende.
Respondentene våre er opptatt av sterke relasjoner og setter samhold og arbeidsmiljø som de viktigste faktorer for å trives på jobb. De ser at det kan være enkelte forskjeller mellom dem og sine eldre kollegaer på noen områder, men en respondent påpeker at det oppleves fint å ha ekstra «jobbmødre».
I vår konklusjon påpeker vi at å lede generasjon Z både kan berike og utfordre lederrollen. Dette baserer vi på at de yngre tenderer til å være ytre motivert, ha kortere fartstid på hver arbeidsplass og at de er særlig opptatt av rettferdighet på alle områder. De er oppvokst i en digital tidsalder, tilegner seg kunnskap raskt og er effektive og ærlige
Should the Norwegian government subsidize offshore wind projects?
Get PDFMasteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Applied Economics - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024This thesis conducts a cost-benefit analysis of the offshore wind farm, Sørlige Nordsjø II, amidst ongoing debates on whether the Norwegian government should subsidize such projects given uncertainties in profitability. There is a growing demand for renewable electricity as more industries transition to electrification, prompting the government to prioritize offshore wind development. Exploring the case study of SN II to assess its benefits and costs is particularly intriguing. Despite bottom-fixed wind turbine technology being considered mature today, this project encounters specific challenges, including its greater depth, distance from shore, and larger wind turbines compared to other projects.
To answer the research question on whether the Norwegian government should subsidize offshore wind projects, the net present value (NPV) of the quantified estimates for SN II will be calculated. Given the high uncertainty of variables such as electricity prices and investment costs, a sensitivity analysis will be conducted, exploring various scenarios for these variables and the discount rate. Additionally, discussions on non-quantifiable estimates will contribute to supporting the conclusion.
The results indicate a significantly negative NPV in the reference scenario. However, the sensitivity analysis reveals that lower investment costs and higher electricity prices could potentially result in a positive NPV with discount rates of 4% or 6%. Anticipating whether technological advancements will reduce investment costs to 40 bNOK and whether electricity prices will be at a high level in the future is difficult to predict.
The thesis concludes that Norway should refrain from subsidizing the project at this time due to the significantly negative result. However, it does not outright reject the idea, as there may be long-term benefits. Realizing offshore wind projects can help achieve climate goals, create jobs, stimulate technological advancements which will reduce investment- and operational costs. This could potentially make future offshore wind projects profitable
Factors Influencing Metaverse Adoption: A Study on Gen Z and Millennials
Get PDFMasteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Strategic Marketing Management/Masteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business, Marketing - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024 - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2024Purpose - Our master thesis aims to look at both the practical needs for
developers and designers, as well as the academic needs of professors and
researchers, in understanding the factors that influence metaverse adoption. While
previous research has primarily focused on the Technology Acceptance Model
(TAM) framework and social dimensions, there is limited research on the
psychological aspects of data privacy and trust, as well as the technological
factors related to interface and hardware. We have therefore applied and extended
the TAM framework to cover hardware, interface, data privacy, and trust as
independent variable