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A Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis Model Based on ELECTRE TRI-C for Erosion Risk Assessment in Agricultural Areas
No full textThis paper deals with a real-world decision-aiding problem for zoning the risk of erosion, total suspended solids emissions, and ecological consequences of their transfers towards the streams. One of these consequences is the decrease of fishes into the streams in agricultural watersheds, because of the clogging of spawning areas. Given the multiple criteria nature of the problem, the originality of our research is to adapt a new decision-aiding sorting method, ELECTRE TRI-C, for identifying risk zones in rural areas, where measures must be taken. The developed model was applied in a small watershed (Low Normandy, France) where the objective was to assess the most appropriate intervention for protecting the reproduction habitat of the salmonid fishes. Agricultural parcels were evaluated on multiple criteria for grouping them into four risk categories, which are related to risk levels as well as priorities on the improvement works. The decision-aiding sorting model is co-constructed, within a constructive approach, through an interaction process between decision-aiding analysts, environmental experts, and local actors for improving transparency and communication on the results. This model is linked with a geographical information system (GIS) for assessing a set of criteria and the visualization of the farming parcels along with their type of intervention they should be submitted to best practices. The assignment results were validated by the environmental experts. These results have a strong impact on the agricultural practices of the farmers into the watersheds. The model proposed in this paper can be considered as a useful decision aid tool in any regions for implementing public agricultural and environmental policies for protecting the ecological areas.nonouirechercheInternationa
Governance of CO2 markets: Lessons from the EU ETS
No full textThe European emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) is the centerpiece of Europe׳s climate policy. The system has been undermined variously by the weakness of its regulation, an undesirable overlap with other public policies and the far-reaching economic and financial crisis that caused the market price of allowances to plunge. This article attempts to identify the conditions for making the coming years of the EU ETS a success. It draws historical lessons from the eight years the scheme has been in operation, and then presents the various interventions by the public authorities currently under discussion in order to revive the market. Finally, the article proposes to draw lessons from monetary policy by outlining what might be the mandate of an Independent Carbon Market Authority, with responsibility for the dynamic management of the supply of allowances, and whose main mission would be to ensure the optimal linkage between the different temporal horizons of the climate strategy. This article could provide important lessons for schemes developing in the rest of the world, especially in South Korea or in China.nonouirechercheInternationa
Computer-Mediated Social Ties as Predictors of SNS Usage Continuance
No full textThe present article is a multi-method work in progress about the post-adoption phase of information systems, and more specifically it investigates the usage continuance of Social Networking Sites (SNS). We use the theoretical framework of Gift Theory applied within the context of SNS. We define the concept of computer-mediated social tie (CMST). In our work we use both qualitative and quantitative data and methods. From our qualitative data we found that CMST explains SNS usage continuance. Using these qualitative data we developed scales for this new construct. We are currently collecting quantitative data in order to verify our qualitative findings. We expect results to confirm the linkage between CMST and usage continuance.nonouirechercheInternationa
Developments on Product Propagation
No full textProduct Propagation (pp) is an algorithm to backup probabilistic evaluations for abstract two-player games. It was shown that pp could solve Go problems as efficiently as Proof Number Search (pns). In this paper, we exhibit three domains where, for generic non-optimized versions, pp performs better (see the nuances in the paper) than previously known algorithms for solving games. The compared approaches include alpha-beta search, pns, and Monte-Carlo Tree Search. We also extend pp to deal with its memory consumption and to improve its solving time.nonouirechercheInternationa
Material Symmetry to Partition Endgame Tables
No full textMany games display some kind of material symmetry. That is, some sets of game elements can be exchanged for another set of game elements, so that the resulting position will be equivalent to the original one, no matter how the elements were arranged on the board. Material symmetry is routinely used in card game engines when they normalize their internal representation of the cards.Other games such as chinese dark chess also feature some form of material symmetry, but it is much less clear what the normal form of a position should be. We propose a principled approach to detect material symmetry. Our approach is generic and is based on solving multiple relatively small sub-graph isomorphism problems. We show how it can be applied to chinese dark chess, dominoes, and skat.In the latter case, the mappings we obtain are equivalent to the ones resulting from the standard normalization process. In the two former cases, we show that the material symmetry allows for impressive savings in memory requirements when building endgame tables. We also show that those savings are relatively independent of the representation of the tables.nonouirechercheInternationa
Les Etats-Unis, entre gaz de schiste et impasse budgétaire
No full textPour cette séance, nous vous proposons de faire le point à la fois sur la situation macroéconomique des Etats-Unis et sur les bouleversements qu’a connu le paysage énergétique américain ces dernières années.De fait, la mise en œuvre de nouvelles techniques, l'élargissement des zones explorées et la stabilisation voire la baisse de la consommation entraînent une réduction sensible de la dépendance énergétique.Cette évolution a déjà des conséquences sur les équilibres extérieurs et, peut-être, sur le redressement d'une partie de l'industrie. Elle pourrait stimuler la croissance de l’économie qui fluctue autour de 2% depuis 2010, un niveau honorable mais insuffisant pour faire baisser suffisamment le chômage, alors que les incertitudes budgétaires pèsent sur les décisions des agents économiques.nonouirechercheNationa
"School’s out for summer, school’s out forever": the long-term health consequences of leaving school during a bad economy
No full textThis paper investigates whether leaving school in a bad economy deteriorates health in the longrun.We focus on individuals in England and Wales who left full-time education in their last year ofcompulsory schooling immediately after the 1973 oil crisis. Our identification strategy builds on twosources. First, it relies on the comparison of very similar individuals – born the same year – whoseschool-leaving behaviour in different economic conditions was exogeneously induced by compulsoryschooling laws. More specifically, within a same birth cohort, pupils born at the end of the calendaryear (September to December) were forced to leave school almost a year later than pupils bornearlier in the year (January to August). Second, we exploit the sharp increase in unemploymentrates generated by the 1973 oil crisis. Between 1974 and 1976, each school cohort indeed facedworse economic conditions at labour-market entry than the previous one. Unlike school-leavers whodid postpone their entry on the labour market during the 1980s and 1990s recessions, we provideevidence that pupils’ decisions to leave school at compulsory age between 1974 and 1976 were notendogeneous to the contemporaneous economic conditions at labour market entry. We use a repeatedcross section of individuals over 1983-2001 from the General Household Survey (GHS) and take alife-course perspective, from 7 to 26 years after school-leaving. Our results show that men who leftschool in a bad economy have a higher probability of smoking over the whole period (1983-2001)and of having ever smoked. Women who left school in a bad economy are more likely to reportpoorer health over the whole period under study. They also have a higher probability to restricttheir activity due to illness or injury and to consult the General Practitioner. We do not find anysignificant effects of poor economic conditions at labour-market entry on subsequent labour-market,marriage and fertility outcomes.nonnonnonrechercheInternationa
Comment: Inferring Trade Costs from Trade Booms and Trade Busts
No full textJacks et al. (2011) offer an alternative to price gaps to quantify trade costs. Implementing a method which consists in deducing international trade costs from trade flows, they argue that the reduction in trade costs was the main driving force of trade growth during the first globalization (1870-1913), whereas economic expansion was the main driving force during the second globalization (1950-2000). We argue that this important result is driven by the use of an ad hoc aggregation method. What Jacks et al. (2011) capture is the difference in the relative starting trade of dyads experiencing faster trade growth in the first and second globalization. More generally, we cast doubts on the possibility to reach conclusions of such nature with a method that infers trade costs from trade flows, and then uses these costs to explain trade flows. We argue that it can only rephrase the information already contained in openness ratios.nonouirechercheInternationa
A Backward Dual Representation for the Quantile Hedging of Bermudan Options
No full textWithin a Markovian complete financial market, we consider the problem of hedging a Bermudan option with a given probability. Using stochastic target and duality arguments, we derive a backward numerical scheme for the Fenchel transform of the pricing function. This algorithm is similar to the usual American backward induction, except that it requires two additional Fenchel transformations at each exercise date. We provide numerical illustrations.nonnonrechercheInternationa