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    Featured organization: International Food Policy Research Institute

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    This article summarizes IFPRI's mission and emphasizes its work in the Asia-Pacific region. The article highlights IFPRI's research addressing the relationship between global environmental change and food security and assesses IFPRI's 2020 Vision

    Agroclimatic indicator analysis under climate change conditions to predict the climatic suitability for wheat production in the upper blue nile basin, Ethiopia

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    Agricultural productivity is significantly influenced by climate-related factors. Understanding the impacts of climate change on agroclimatic conditions is critical for ensuring sustainable agricultural practices. This study investigates how key agroclimatic variables—temperature, moisture conditions, and length of the growing season (LGS)—influence wheat suitability in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), Ethiopia. The Global Agroecological Zones (GAEZ) methodology was employed to assess agroclimatic suitability, integrating climate projections from Climate Models Intercomparison Project v6 (CMIP6) under shared socioeconomic pathway (ssp370 and ssp585) scenarios. The CMIP6 data provided downscaled projections for temperature and precipitation, while the GAEZ framework translated these climatic inputs into agroclimatic indicators, enabling spatially explicit analyses of land suitability. Projections indicate significant warming, with mean annual temperatures expected to rise between 1.13 ◦C and 4.85 ◦C by the end of the century. Precipitation levels are anticipated to increase overall, although spatial variability may challenge moisture availability in some regions. The LGS is projected to extend, particularly in the southern and southeastern UBNB, enhancing agricultural potential in these areas. However, wheat suitability faces considerable declines; under ssp585, the highly suitable area is expected to drop from 24.21% to 13.31% by the 2080s due to thermal and moisture stress. This study highlights the intricate relationship between agroclimatic variables and agricultural productivity. Integrating GAEZ and CMIP6 projections provides quantified insights into the impacts of climate change on wheat suitability. These findings offer a foundation for developing adaptive strategies to safeguard food security and optimize land use in vulnerable regions

    Economic values of some important traits for smallholder dairy production in Central Ethiopia

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    Economic value (EV), sensitivity of EV and relative economic importance of milk yield (MY), age at first calving (AFC), calving interval (CI) and herd life (HL) traits were estimated for smallholder dairy cattle production in the central part of Ethiopia. The data on biological and economic parameters were collected using household interview and group discussions methods participating 238 farmers who had crossbred dairy cattle. Bio-economic model was used to calculate EV, sensitivity of EV and relative importance of EV. Cost of animal feed takes the highest share which accounted 81.35% of the total expenditure. The overall average profit per farmer expressed in Ethiopia currency (ETB, 1 US-$ = 39.55696 ETB) was 72,458.10 ± 5068 per year. Profitability of crossbred dairy cattle significantly varied (P < 0.05) between zones. Economic value estimated for MY, AFC, CI and HL in ETB were 13.38/kg, -16.19/day, -33.58/day and 79.55/day. The associated EV per additive standard deviation were 6083.62, -1311.59, -1271.05 and 117.73 ETB for MY, AFC, CI and HL, respectively. Analysis of sensitivity to scenario change (± 20%) showed that milk price had positive association with profit and EV, whereas feed price has inversely influenced both profit and EV. The profit obtained by farmers was altered by ± 29.08% and ± 12.31% as milk price and feed price fluctuated by ± 20%, respectively. Similarly, the EV of MY was changed by ± 20% with change in milk price and ± 7% with feed price. Scenario change in feed price (± 20%) has also caused ± 13.63% change on EV for AFC and ± 17.58% for CI. It can be noted that profit and EV of the traits were less sensitive to the change in price of milk, feed and labor. In general, the results of EV and profitability were encouraging for dairy farmers and the estimates can be used as an input for development of breeding program in the study area

    Field trip report: Loita Hills, Narok

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    Optimizing land use and management at farm level: Implementation of FarmDESIGN recommended optimizations in Lemmo Woreda, Ethiopia

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    Managing mixed farming systems to achieve multiple goals, such as maximizing productivity and minimizing environmental impact, while adhering to farm and policy constraints, is a complex challenge. The intricate interplay between various farm components and the trade-offs among them necessitates a sophisticated approach to decision-making. The FarmDESIGN (FD) model offers a promising solution by capturing these complexities and providing data-driven recommendations. This study applied the FD model to three distinct farm typologies (low, medium, and high resource endowment) in the Lemmo of Central Ethiopia. The model was optimized to maximize operating profit and organic matter balance, while minimizing labour requirements. The optimization results revealed a delicate balance between the objectives, showcasing trade-offs and synergies among them. Cloud of solutions was identified, each with varying levels of performance for each objective. Focus group discussions (FGDs) with farmers highlighted a positive reception to the FD model's recommendations. The proposed interventions included: Improved crop residue management, Organic input application, Intercropping, Forage production and Livestock upgrades. The implementation of FD-recommended interventions has commenced and is progressing steadily. However, seasonal variations and other factors may influence the pace of implementation. Overall, by leveraging the power of the FD model and engaging with farmers, it is possible to develop sustainable and resilient mixed farming systems that can contribute to food security, environmental conservation, and rural livelihood

    Gainers and losers from agricultural trade liberalization

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