1,721,617 research outputs found

    A Bayesian approach for monitoring epidemics in presence of undetected cases

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    One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease is the reproduction number. This quantity is usually computed using the reported number of cases, but ignoring that many more individuals may be infected (e.g. asymptomatic carriers). We develop a Bayesian procedure to quantify the impact of undetected infectious cases on the determination of the effective reproduction number. Our approach is stochastic, data-driven and not relying on any compartmental model. It is applied to the COVID-19 outbreak in eight different countries and all Italian regions, showing that the effect of undetected cases leads to estimates of the effective reproduction numbers larger than those obtained only with the reported cases by factors ranging from two to ten

    Spontaneous bending of pre-stretched bilayers

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    We discuss spontaneously bent configurations of pre-stretched bilayer sheets that can be obtained by tuning the pre-stretches in the two layers. The two-dimensional nonlinear plate model we use for this purpose is an adaptation of the one recently obtained for thin sheets of nematic elastomers, by means of a rigorous dimensional reduction argument based on the theory of Gamma-convergence (Agostiniani and DeSimone in Meccanica. doi:10.1007/s11012-017-0630-4, 2017, Math Mech Solids. doi:10.1177/1081286517699991, arXiv:1509.07003, 2017). We argue that pre-stretched bilayer sheets provide us with an interesting model system to study shape programming and morphing of surfaces in other, more complex systems, where spontaneous deformations are induced by swelling due to the absorption of a liquid, phase transformations, thermal or electro-magnetic stimuli. These include bio-mimetic structures inspired by biological systems from both the plant and the animal kingdoms

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Rigorous derivation of active plate models for thin sheets of nematic elastomers

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    In the context of finite elasticity, we propose plate models describing the spontaneous bending of nematic elastomer thin films due to variations along the thickness of the nematic order parameters. Reduced energy functionals are deduced from a three-dimensional description of the system using rigorous dimension reduction techniques, based on the theory of Γ-convergence. The two-dimensional models are non-linear plate theories, in which deviations from a characteristic target curvature tensor cost elastic energy. Moreover, the stored energy functional cannot be minimised to zero, thus revealing the presence of residual stresses, as observed in numerical simulations. Three nematic textures are considered: splay-bend and twisted orientations of the nematic director, and a uniform director perpendicular to the mid-plane of the film, with variable degree of nematic order along the thickness. These three textures realise three very different structural models: one with only one stable spontaneously bent configuration, a bistable model with two oppositely curved configurations of minimal energy, and a shell with zero stiffness to twisting

    Modelling biological and bio-inspired swimming at microscopic scales: Recent results and perspectives

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    Some recent results on biological and bio-inspired swimming at microscopic scales are reviewed, and used to identify promising research directions for the future. We focus on broad conceptual principles such as looping in the space of shapes, loss of controllability of systems in which shape is only partially controlled, and steering by modulating the actuation rate. Moreover, we discuss propulsion mechanism that are most common for unicellular swimmers, such as flagellar and ciliary beating, and we examine amoeboid motion and flagellar propulsion in Euglena. The Helix Theorem, a universal law characterising orbits traced by ciliated and flagellated unicellular swimmers propelled by the periodic beating of cilia and flagella, is proved and discussed as a principle of self-assembly for helical structures
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