1,721,205 research outputs found
Deep Bayesian survival analysis of rail useful lifetime
No full textReliable estimation of rail useful lifetime can provide valuable information for predictive maintenance in railway systems. However, in most cases, lifetime data is incomplete because not all pieces of rail experience failure by the end of the study horizon, a problem known as censoring. Ignoring or otherwise mistreating the censored cases might lead to false conclusions. Survival approach is particularly designed to handle censored data for analysing the expected duration of time until one event occurs, which is rail failure in this paper. This paper proposes a deep Bayesian survival approach named BNN-Surv to properly handle censored data for rail useful lifetime modelling. The proposed BNN-Surv model applies the deep neural network in the survival approach to capture the non-linear relationship between covariates and rail useful lifetime. To consider and quantify uncertainty in the model, Monte Carlo dropout, regarded as the approximate Bayesian inference, is incorporated into the deep neural network to provide the confidence interval of the estimated lifetime. The proposed approach is implemented on a four-year dataset including track geometry monitoring data, track characteristics data, various types of defect data, and maintenance and replacement (M&R) data collected from a section of railway tracks in Australia. Through extensive evaluation, including Concordance index (C-index) and root mean square error (RMSE) for evaluating model performance, as well as a proposed CW-index for evaluating uncertainty estimations, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is confirmed. The results show that, compared with other commonly used models, the proposed approach can achieve the best concordance index (C-index) of 0.80, and the estimated rail useful lifetimes are closer to real lifetimes. In addition, the proposed approach can provide the confidence interval of the estimated lifetime, with a correct coverage of 81% of the actual lifetime when the confidence interval is 1.38, which is more useful than point estimates in decision-making and maintenance planning of railroad systems.Railway Engineerin
Advancing spatial-temporal rock fracture prediction with virtual camera-based data augmentation
No full textPredicting rock fractures in unexcavated areas is a critical yet challenging aspect of geotechnical projects. This task involves forecasting the fracture mapping sequences for unexcavated rock faces using the sequences from excavated ones, which is well-suited for spatial–temporal deep learning techniques. Fracture mapping sequences for deep learning model training can be achieved based on field photography. However, the main obstacle lies in the insufficient availability of high-quality photos. Existing data augmentation techniques rely on slices taken from Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) models. However, slices differ significantly from actual photos taken from the field. To overcome this limitation, this study introduces a new framework that uses Virtual Camera Technology (VCT) to generate “virtual photos” from DFN models. The external (e.g., camera location, direction) and internal parameters (e.g., focal length, resolution, sensor size) of cameras can be considered in this method. The “virtual photos” generated from the VCT and conventional slicing method have been extensively compared. The framework is designed to adapt to any distribution of field fractures and camera settings, serving as a universal tool for practical applications. The whole framework has been packaged as an open-source tool for rock “photos” generation. An open-source benchmark database has also been established based on this tool. To validate the framework's feasibility, the Predictive Recurrent Neural Network (PredRNN) method is applied to the generated database. A high degree of similarity is observed between the predicted mapping sequences and the ground truth. The model successfully captured the dynamic changes in fracture patterns across different sections, thereby confirming the framework's practical utility. The source code and dataset can be freely downloaded from GitHub repository (https://github.com/GEO-ATLAS/Rock-Camera).</p
Updating reliability of pile groups with load tests considering spatially variable soils
No full textThis paper proposes a rigorous framework to update the reliability of pile groups based on load tests. The proposed approach enables the consideration of the spatial variability of soils, which is disregarded in previous studies. To achieve this, the random finite difference method (RFDM) is utilised to assess the group efficiency, individual pile capacities, and the correlation between individual pile capacities in spatially variable soils. Subsequently, Bayes’ theorem is employed to update individual pile capacities based on load test results, taking into account the correlation between individual pile capacities. Finally, the reliability of pile groups is evaluated based on the group efficiency and updated individual pile capacities. An axially loaded pile group in undrained clays is utilised for demonstration. Results indicate that neglecting the spatial variability of soils may lead to unrealistic assessments of the reliability of pile groups. Specifically, in cases where all piles fail, the ignorance of spatial variability results in an overconservative design. Conversely, in cases where one or more piles pass, it leads to an unconservative design.</p
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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