1,720,980 research outputs found
Can a simple structural time series model beat the random walk?
No full textThis paper tries to address the question that if the long run PPP holds, then there should exist a structural model which can outperform the random walk in out of sample forecasting. We propose an ARFIMA based model with log of the independent variable as an explanatory variable and make a comparison study of this structural model with the benchmark random walk model. Then, we compare our results with that as obtained by Engel and Hamilton, and by Clarida, Sarno, Taylor and Valente. We present the standard ARFIMA model and show how can make an extension of it so that it becomes a variant of ARFIMA and name it as YQ-ARFIMA, then construct a bivariate model relating the dependent variable yt and ln yt , and with that, perform an impulse response function analysis of the predictive
ability of ln yt . We also transform the YQ-ARFIMA into a moving average representation, and thereafter perform the impulse response function analysis again, then make a comparison study between the standard ARFIMA and the YQARFIMA by comparing the out of sample forecasting ability of each one of them with the benchmark random walk model. After that, compare the performance of YQ-ARFIMA with that of the Markov switching model put forward by Engel and Hamilton, and the MSIH(3)-VECM as put forward by CSTV. Last, we test the robustness of the YQ-ARFIMA by fitting it into different exchange rate series spanning the five continents of the globe, then, test the consistency of the forecast by YQ-ARFIMA by a cointegration technique. By using the loss functions RMSE and MAPE, cointegration
consistency in forecasts and impulse response function analysis, we have shown beyond doubt that theYQ-ARFIMA model is very much superior in forecasting ability
The Nexus between housing glut, economic growth, housing affordability and house price in Malaysia
No full textThis paper analyses [1] the relative impact of housing affordability, housing prices and gross domestic product on housing glut, [2] the effects of housing glut on the health of housing market and then [3] suggestion of solutions to mitigate the risks of housing bubble bursting. Results show that housing affordability and housing price exert very mild effect on housing glut contrary to the common belief that these two factors have significant effect on housing glut. In terms of number, our results show that economic growth contributes about 0.15 negative impact on housing glut for every unit increase in economic growth while each unit increase in housing price can increase housing glut as much as 0.0054 unit
Determination of joint distribution for operating metocean variables for offshore structures
No full text
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Structural Modelling And Analysis Of The Behavioural Dynamics Of Foreign Exchange Rate [HG3851. Y51 2006 f rb].
Get PDFTesis ini berkaitan dengan Kadar Wang Pertukaran Asing (KWPA) yang dihasilkan oleh satu regime urusniaga bebas. Pada amnya, kita mengkaji Pemodelan Struktur dan Analisis Tingkahlaku Dinamik Kadar Pertukaran Wang Asing.
This thesis deals specifically with the foreign exchange rates that resulted from free float regimes. In general, we study the structural modelling and analysis of the behavioural dynamics of foreign exchange rates
Structural Modelling And Analysis Of The Behavioural Dynamics Of Foreign Exchange Rate
Get PDFTesis ini berkaitan dengan Kadar Wang Pertukaran Asing (KWPA) yang dihasilkan oleh satu regime urusniaga bebas.
This thesis deals specifically with the foreign exchange rates that resulted from free float regimes
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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