1,720,995 research outputs found
The forecast performance of alternative models of inflation
Get PDFIt is inappropriate to ignore the behavior of money in explaining the generation and evolution of aggregate inflation over time. It is shown that over the period 1977 to 1987 an inflation model based on M2 demand describes more accurately the actual behavior of inflation than an expectations-augmented version of the Phillips curve.Inflation (Finance) ; Money supply ; Forecasting
In search of a stable, short-run M1 demand function
Get PDFConventional M1 demand functions reformulated using error-correction and cointegration techniques neither depict parameter stability nor satisfactorily explain short-run changes in M1. Thus, M1 remains unreliable as an indicator variable for monetary policy.Money supply
In search of a stable, short-run M1 demand function
Get PDFConventional M1 demand functions reformulated using error-correction and cointegration techniques neither depict parameter stability nor satisfactorily explain short-run changes in M1. Thus, M1 remains unreliable as an indicator variable for monetary policy.Money supply
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
The output gap, expected future inflation and inflation dynamics: another look
No full textThe empirical test of the output gap-based New Keynesian Phillips curve often has been implemented by estimating a hybrid specification that includes both lagged and future inflation and then by examining whether the estimated coefficient on future inflation is significantly larger than the one on lagged inflation. This article presents the evidence that indicates supply shocks significantly enter the hybrid specification. The results reported in previous research — the output gap is irrelevant and expected future inflation is the major determinant of inflation — arise if the hybrid specification is estimated omitting supply shocks and/or lagged inflation. In the hybrid specification estimated with supply shocks, the output gap is significant. The estimated coefficient on future inflation is quantitatively small, but the estimated coefficient on lagged inflation is significantly larger than the one on future inflation. The null hypothesis that the estimated coefficient on lagged inflation is unity is not rejected if the hybrid specification nests an alternative version of the traditional Phillips curve in which inflation responds also to a change in the output gap. Together these results suggest that expected future inflation is not the major determinant of current inflation.Inflation (Finance)
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