1,721,309 research outputs found
Characterizing the reliability of global crop prediction based on seasonal climate forecasts
No full textReliable crop prediction based on seasonal climate forecasts can be achieved when a strong climate- crop relationship exists and there are reliable forecasts of the climatic constraints on crops. Here, we present global assessments of the climatic constraints on crops (maize, soybeans, rice, and wheat), the degree of the climate-crop relationship, and the reliability of seasonal forecasts of dominant climatic constraints based on statistical crop models and ensemble seasonal climate forecasts. We then classify the reliability of within-season crop prediction into four categories based on the degree of the climate-crop relationship and the reliability of the climate forecasting: (I) reliable; (II) less reliable due to the low reliability of climate forecasting; (III) not reliable due to the low reliability of climate forecasting and a weak climate-crop relationship; and (IV) less reliable due to a weak climate-crop relationship. The results showed that a strong climate-crop relationship exists in the area that produces 24-38% of the global crop production. On a global scale, 51-59% of the maize and soybean production is sensitive to soil moisture level during the reproductive growth period, whereas 47-53% of the rice and wheat production is sensitive to temperature. Due to the greater reliability of temperature forecasts, crop prediction is reliable in those areas in which the crop yield is temperature-sensitive and temperature forecasts are reliable. The categorized reliability of crop prediction indicated that improvements of soil moisture forecasts in 30-50°N during July- October and in 30-40 ? S during February-April are needed for better maize and soybean prediction, whereas improved temperature forecasts in 20-60 ° N during March-August are keys to rice and wheat prediction. This study established a novel way of assessing the reliability of crop prediction, which will enable decision-making and allow researchers to prioritize the direction of new research to improve crop prediction in a given area for global food prediction
Improved Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode by Use of Subsurface Ocean Observations
No full textThe numerical seasonal prediction system using the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier version 1 (SINTEX-F) ocean-atmosphere coupled model has so far demonstrated a good performance for prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IOD) despite the fact that the system adopts a relatively simple initialization scheme based on nudging only the sea surface temperature (SST). However, it is to be expected that the system is not sufficient to capture in detail the subsurface oceanic precondition. Therefore, the authors have introduced a new three-dimensional variational ocean data assimilation (3DVAR) method that takes three-dimensional observed ocean temperature and salinity into account. Since the new system has successfully improved IOD predictions, the present study is showing that the ocean observational efforts in the tropical Indian Ocean are decisive for improvement of the IOD predictions and may have a large impact on important socioeconomic activities, particularly in the Indian Ocean rim countries
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
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