1,721,115 research outputs found
What drives the US consumer confidence? Asymmetric effects of economic uncertainty
No full textThis paper empirically investigates the asymmetric effects of different economic variables including uncertainty caused by government policies on the two main US consumer confidence indices. This paper further investigates whether COVID-19 has any significant effect on the relationship between US consumer confidence indices and their determinants. The empirical investigation is conducted by means of non-linear asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) tests, so that the asymmetric effect of uncertainty and other determinants on consumer confidence may be studied. The paper applies monthly data from January 2010 to December 2021. Results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic did not alter the stability of the long-term relationship between the consumer confidence indices and their determinants. Uncertainty imposed by government policies plays a significant role before and, more prominently, during the pandemic. The increased effect of the uncertainty may be due to the jump in economic uncertainty during the COVID era. Our work may help to foster consumer confidence in terms of macroeconomic policy variables. The results can also expand the scope of investors' decision making as it provides an in-depth understanding of the drivers of consumers' confidence in the US economy
Testing for rational bubbles in the UK housing market
No full textOver the past decade, the UK has witnessed significant booms in the real estate market, and housing prices have experienced increases. Since 1997, the housing price has almost tripled, which is far beyond the long-term trend. To identify the existence of housing bubbles is a crucial issue for any country to prevent possible damage to economies and outbreaks of financial crises. The objective of this paper is to examine the existence of a housing price bubble in the UK through employing a co-explosive vector autoregression (VAR) model, originally applied to stock markets. The results demonstrate that both housing price and rental price show explosive behaviour during their growth, which provides little evidence to support the presence of real estate bubbles in the UK
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Acquirer performance in knowledge motivated acquisitions
No full textThis study uses fine-grained measures of target resources within the context of the dynamic environment of the 1990s to investigate the relationship between uncertainty, target resource type and acquirer stock market performance. The findings suggest that the market punishes acquirers of knowledge resources more than those that buy property resources due to the resource value uncertainty that affects knowledge-based acquisitions. Further, sample time frame, industry and acquirers size moderate this resourceperformance relationship. In support of the uncertainty argument, I find that managers announcing knowledge-based mergers provide more information in their press releases than those announcing property-based transactions
Testing for a Markov-Switching Mean in Serially Correlated Data
No full textWhen testing for Markov switching in mean or intercept of an autoregressive process, it is important to allow for serial correlation under the null hypothesis of linearity. Otherwise, a rejection of linearity could merely reflect misspecification of the persistence properties of the data, rather than any inherent nonlinearity. However, Monte Carlo analysis reveals that the Carrasco, Hu, and Ploberger (Optimal test for Markov Switching parameters, conditionally accepted at Econometrica, 2012) test for Markov switching has low power for empirically relevant data-generating processes when allowing for serial correlation under the null. By contrast, a parametric bootstrap likelihood ratio test of Markov switching has higher power in the same setting. Correspondingly, the bootstrap likelihood ratio test provides stronger support for a Markov-switching mean in an application to an autoregressive model of quarterly US real GDP growth
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
- …
