3,518 research outputs found
On the importance of the probabilistic model in identifying the most decisive games in a tournament
No full textIdentifying the decisive matches in international football tournaments is of great relevance for a variety of decision makers such as organizers, team coaches and/or media managers. This paper addresses this issue by analyzing the role of the statistical approach used to estimate the outcome of the game on the identification of decisive matches on international tournaments for national football teams. We extend the measure of decisiveness proposed by Geenens (2014) in order to allow us to predict or evaluate the decisive matches before, during and after a particular game on the tournament. Using information from the 2014 FIFA World Cup, our results suggest that Poisson and kernel regressions significantly outperform the forecasts of ordered probit models. Moreover, we find that although the identification of the most decisive matches is independent of the model considered, the identification of other key matches is model dependent. We also apply this methodology to identify the favorite teams and to predict the most decisive matches in 2015 Copa America before the start of the competition. Furthermore, we compare our forecast approach with respect to the original measure during the knockout stage
Interview with Michael Cronin
No full textMichael Cronin (Ph. D. Trinity College, Dublin). Author of the ground-breaking, Translating Ireland, (Routledge 1996) Michael Cronin is the foremost translation scholar working in Ireland today. Cronin established the cultural review Graph with Peter Sirr and Barra Ó Séaghdha in 1986 and was involved in the setting up of the Irish Translators Association and the creation of Ireland Literature Exchange, the body responsible for funding the translation of Iri..
Bayesian inference for a software reliability model using metrics information.
No full textIn this paper, we are concerned with predicting the number of faults N and the time to next failure of a piece of software. Information in the form of software metrics data is used to estimate the prior distribution of N via a Poisson regression model. Given failure time data, and a well known model for software failures, we show how to sample the posterior distribution using Gibbs sampling, as implemented in the package "WinBugs". The approach is illustrated with a practical example
Peter Meinke and Michael Blumenthal: A Conversation, 31st Annual ODU Literary Festival
No full textPeter Meinke’s most recent books are The Contracted World (2006, poems); Unheard Music (2007, stories); and The Shape of Poetry (2008, essays on writing). His work has received many awards, including O’Henry and Best American fiction, three prizes from the Poetry Society of America, and two National Endowment for the Arts fellowships. He held the Mina Hohenberg Darden Chair in Creative Writing at ODU in 2003-05, and earlier this year, he was Distinguished Poet in Residence at Wichita State University.
Michael Blumenthal is the author of the memoir All My Mothers and Fathers (2002) and of Dusty Angel (1999), his sixth book of poems. His seventh book of poetry, And, will be published in 2009. His novel, Weinstock Among the Dying (l994), won a Hadassah Magazine prize for the best work of Jewish fiction. Formerly director of creative writing at Harvard, Blumenthal currently holds the Mina Hohenberg Darden Endowed Chair in Creative Writing at ODU. He has lived and taught in Hungary, Israel, Germany and France; in May 2007, he worked with orphaned infant chacma baboons in South Africa. He spends his summers in a small village near the shores of Lake Balaton in Hungary
Inferencia bayesiana para algunas leyes de Lanchester
No full textLanchester (1916) introdujo una serie de ecuaciones o leyes determinísticas para modelar los números de bajas en un combate sin refuerzos. Un inconveniente de estos modelos es que no son útiles ni para la inferencia ni para la predicción, ya que el resultado de una batalla viene determinado por los parámetros del sistema y los tamaños iniciales de cada ejército. Se han propuesto varias versiones estocásticas de las ecuaciones de Lanchester. En este artículo, se resumen algunos de estos modelos y se demuestra cómo utilizar la inferencia bayesiana para estimar los parámetros importantes dada la información a priori que proviene de batallas anteriores, simulaciones, etc. y dada una muestra de datos de un combate. Finalmente, se ilustran los métodos empleados con datos reales y simulados
Transient bayesian inference for short and long-tailed GI/G/1 queueing systems
No full textIn this paper, we describe how to make Bayesian inference for the transient behaviour and busy period in a single server system with general and unknown distribution for the service and interarrival time. The dense family of Coxian distributions is used for the service and arrival process to the system. This distribution model is reparametrized such that it is possible to define a non-informative prior which allows for the approximation of heavytailed distributions. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the predictive distribution of the interarrival and service time. Our procedure for estimating the system measures is based in recent results for known parameters which are frequently implemented by using symbolical packages. Alternatively, we propose a simple numerical technique that can be performed for every MCMC iteration so that we can estimate interesting measures, such as the transient queue length distribution. We illustrate our approach with simulated and real queues
Bayesian control of the number of servers in a GI/M/c queuing system
No full textIn this paper we consider the problem of designing a GI/M/c queueing system. Given arrival and service data, our objective is to choose the optimal number of servers so as to minimize an expected cost function which depends on quantities, such as the number of customers in the queue. A semiparametric approach based on Erlang mixture distributions is used to model the general interarrival time distribution. Given the sample data, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the system parameters and the predictive distributions of the usual performance measures. We can then use these estimates to minimize the steady-state expected total cost rate as a function of the control parameter c. We provide a numerical example based on real data obtained from a bank in Madrid
Music for classical guitar by South African composers : a historical survey, notes on selected works and a general catalogue
No full textIncludes abstract.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 296-309).This is the first comprehensive investigation of music for, or including, the classical guitar by South African composers. The focus of this research has been, firstly, to uncover as much of the repertoire as possible, and, secondly, to collate, study, catalogue and report on the information. A brief historical survey of the guitar in South Africa provides the context within which this study was conducted. The primary sources of quantitative data collection were through the archival catalogues of the South African Music Rights Organisation and through personal contact with guitarists, composers and guitar teachers. Other sources consulted were publishers, broadcasting corporations, recording companies, libraries and the internet. The body of the dissertation comprises biographical sketches, background notes, analyses and technical notes on 17 selected solo and chamber works dating from 1947 to 2007 by some of South Africa's most prominent composers and guitaristcomposers. The repertoire ranges in style from the traditional and ethnically inspired to the experimental and abstract. As this is an empirical survey, each selected entry includes details on instrumentation, duration, level of difficulty, number of pages, scordatura, commissions or requests, sources or publishers, premières and recordings. A biography of each composer is provided as well as background notes which offer an overview of the selected work. The notes discuss historical, cultural, musical and extra-musical influences, and frequently include references to interview material. The commentaries on the selected works, with musical examples, include an analytical component describing structure, form, stylistic and compositional elements, while the technical observations include performance suggestions and a grading for each work
Bayesian non-parametrics for time-varying volatility models
No full textMención Internacional en el título de doctorPrograma Oficial de Doctorado en Economía de la Empresa y Métodos CuantitativosPresidente: Michael Peter Wiper; Secretaria: María Pilar Muñoz Gracia; Vocal: Roberto Casarí
Michigan State University Professor Emeritus Donald A. Yates talks about Argentine writer Jorge Luis Borges and his relationship with MSU
No full textIn a lecture entitled "Borges and MSU", Michigan State University Professor Emeritus Donald A. Yates discusses his long personal and professional relationship with acclaimed Argentine writer Jorge Luis Borges. Yates describes Borges' childhood, reads from his work and tells of helping bring the author to MSU as an artist in residence in 1976. Yates says that knowing Borges "is probably the most important thing in my life". Yates is introduced by MSU Assistant Director of Libraries Peter Berg and MSU Professor Michael Koppisch
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