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The Disturbance of Abnormal Events to Customer Value: An Application of Individual-level Hierarchical Bayesian Models
No full text顧客價值為企業制定行銷策略的重要依據。從廠商的角度出發，顧客終生價值衡量個別顧客為廠商創造的利潤之折現值。然而受限於資料取得不易，顧客終身價值模型通常忽略異常事件對顧客終生價值所造成的干擾，導致估計值與實際值的偏離。
本研究以事後評估的觀點，設定受到異常事件干擾之顧客為實驗組，運用個體層次層級貝氏模型，以事件前資料估計模型參數，模擬在未受事件影響之下實驗組顧客的顧客終生價值。其次假設另一群未受事件干擾的顧客為控制組，使用同樣方法估計其終生價值，再以控制組的估計偏誤調整實驗組之模擬值。最後比較實驗組顧客之調整後模擬值與其受干擾之事後實際值，進而估算出異常事件對該群顧客價值之干擾效果。
實證研究以台灣某線上文具供應商為例，該公司之顧客資料庫為離職員工所盜竊，該名員工亦在離職後對資料庫所紀錄之顧客進行行銷活動。針對此異常事件，本研究根據事件前已列入資料庫之顧客，挑選其中在事件前後皆有兩筆以上交易資料者為實驗組樣本，並以相同標準挑選事件後才列入資料庫之顧客為控制組樣本。研究發現此異常事件造成實驗組顧客終身價值之減少，以累積銷售而言，廠商在事件後第228天之損失金額為新台幣3,377,181元。
本研究在兩組樣本皆發現，儘管全體顧客在事件後仍持續購買行為，然而部份顧客於事件後延長其購買期間，另一部份顧客則縮短其購買期間。另就群體行為來看，延長購買期間的顧客在實驗組所佔比重較高。針對此發現，本研究運用個體層次層級貝氏混合模型，討論實驗組中個別顧客是否因事件影響而造成購買期間之結構性改變。然而研究過程中面臨模型認定不足之問題，故本研究並未對前述命題做出結論，唯待未來研究對模型進行改良並對此一命題提出解釋。Customer value is a key reference for businesses to formulate marketing strategies. From the suppliers’ perspectives, customer lifetime value is a managerial tool which is used to calculate the present value of the profit contributed by each customer. However, customer lifetime value models usually ignore the impact of abnormal events due the lack of data, and therefore overestimate/underestimate the true customer lifetime value.
Since the occurrence of an abnormal event is identified, this study regards customers who have been affected by the event as the experimental group. Besides, this research uses individual-level hierarchical Bayesian models to simulate the true customer lifetime value of customers belong to the experimental group based on data previous to the occurrence of the event. Furthermore, another group of customers who have not been influenced by the event are regarded as the control group which is used to adjust the simulated customer lifetime value of the experimental group. Finally, by comparing the simulated value after adjustment and the realized value, the disturbance of the abnormal event to customers from the experimental group could be estimated.
In empirical study, this research studies an online stationary vender in Taiwan. The customer database of this company was stolen and leveraged to run a new business by an ex-employee of the company. To study this abnormal event, this research select customers who had been recorded in the database before the event occurred with at least two transactions both ex ante and ex post as the experimental group. In addition, other customers who was recorded in the database after the occurrence of the event and have at least two transactions are chosen as the control group, After the analysis, this research finds that the abnormal event does decrease the customer lifetime value of customers from the experimental group, and the loss value in terms of cumulative sales at the 228 day after the event occurred is NT$ 3,377,181.
Another finding in this study is that although all customers keep purchasing after the occurrence of the event, some of them lengthen their inter-purchase time, while others shorten their inter-purchase time. This phenomenon is detected in both groups, but comparing to the control group, more customers from the experimental group lengthen their inter-purchase time. In order to identify whether each customer belonging to the experimental group has a structural change in his or her purchase behavior in terms of inter-purchase time after the event occurred, individual-level hierarchical Bayesian mixture models are introduced. Unfortunately, these models face the question of under-identified. Thus, future researches are needed to improve the method and to study the tapped but unsolved issue.謝辭 i
中文摘要 iii
Abstract v
Table of Contents vii
List of Tables xi
List of Figures xiii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Motives 1
1.2 Research Objectives 2
1.3 Framework 2
Chapter 2 Literature Review 3
2.1 Customer Value 3
2.1.1 Consumer Values and Consumer Value 3
2.1.2 The Augmented Product Concept 4
2.1.3 Customer Satisfaction and Service Quality 4
2.1.4 The Value Chain 5
2.1.5 Creating and Delivering Superior Customer Value 5
2.1.6 Customer-perceived Value 6
2.1.7 Customer Value and Shareholder Value 6
2.1.8 Relationship Value 7
2.1.9 Changes in Customer Value 7
2.2 Customer’s Value to the Firm and CLV Modeling 9
2.2.1 Fundamentals of CLV Modeling 10
2.2.2 RFM Models 10
2.2.3 Probability Models 11
2.2.4 Econometric Models 12
2.2.5 Persistence Models 16
2.2.6 Diffusion/Growth Models 17
2.2.7 Computer Science Models 18
2.2.8 Changes in Customer Lifetime Value 18
2.3 Hierarchical Bayesian Models 19
2.3.1 Bayesian Theorem 19
2.3.2 Hierarchical Bayesian 20
2.3.3 Finite Mixture Modeling 21
2.3.4 Markov Chain Monte Carlo 21
Chapter 3 Research Method 27
3.1 Hierarchical Bayesian Model 33
3.1.1 Model 33
3.1.2 Estimation Algorithm 34
3.2 Hierarchical Bayesian Regression Model 38
3.2.1 Model 38
3.2.2 Estimation Algorithm 39
3.3 Hierarchical Bayesian Mixture Model 44
3.3.1 Model 44
3.3.2 Estimation Algorithm 45
3.4 Hierarchical Bayesian Regression Mixture Model 51
3.4.1 Model 51
3.4.2 Estimation Algorithm 51
3.5 Average Price Paid Per Order by Each Customer 56
Chapter 4 Empirical Research 59
4.1 Sample Description 61
4.1.1 Purchase Frequency 64
4.1.2 Customers’ Average Inter-purchase Time 65
4.1.3 Average Price Paid Per Order by each Customer 66
4.1.4 Subgroup Classification 67
4.2 Estimation Results 70
4.2.1 Inter-purchase Time 70
4.2.2 Average Price Paid Per Order by Each Customer 76
4.2.3 The Impact of the Abnormal Event to the Firm 78
4.2.4 Structural Changes in Inter-purchase Time 81
Chapter 5 Conclusion and Suggestion 85
5.1 Conclusion 85
5.2 Managerial Implications 87
5.3 Limitations and Future Research 88
Reference 91
Appendix 101
Appendix 1. MCMC Process 101
Appendix 2. GAUSS Language for GIGR model 120
Appendix 3. GAUSS Language for GIGMR model 12
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Estimating the effect of urban/rural background and higher education on first job wage of university graduates.
No full text本研究使用臺灣高等教育整合資料庫計畫之92學年大一新生調查與95學年畢業後一年調查之串聯資料進行分析，檢驗大學畢業生之初職薪資與高等教育內涵與成長地區之城鄉背景的關係並探究高中－大學時期的移動經驗對於初薪的影響。使用多階層線性模型，控制個人層次之家庭背景因素後，分析成長地區背景與高等教育內涵在初職薪資表現上的交互作用，其發現為：（1）高等教育內涵對初職薪資有顯著影響，且影響力大於家庭背景。（2）個人成長地區背景的都市化程度會造成高等教育內涵取得之差異，都市化程度越低者越傾向於就讀公立、技職與科技學門。（3）成長地區背景之都市化程度正向影響初職薪資，並與高等教育內涵之公私立類型學校有正向交互作用關係，表示成長於都市地區者在工作起薪高於鄉村者，且由公立大學教育內涵的薪資獲益較大。（4）高中－大學的城鄉移動經驗，對非都市地區學生未來的初薪表現有正向效果，其效果隨都市化程度越高而降低，亦即越是鄉村地區背景的學生，其薪資受到城鄉移動的正向影響力越大。This paper uses the Taiwan Integrated Postsecondary Education Database to examine the relationships among the wage of the first job, higher education and the difference in effect between growing up in the rural environment and the urban environment. The study also explores the influence of moving experience when high school students enter in the university on the wage of the first job. Two waves of data were merged; the first wave occurred in 2003 questioning freshmen students and the second wave occurred in 2006 questioning graduate students a year after they graduated. After controlling the factors of different family socioeconomic status at the individual level, the hierarchical linear model is used to identify the impact of having a higher education and the difference in background between growing up in the rural environment and the urban environment.
The major findings are as follows:
A. Higher education has significant effects on first job wage, and it is more influential than the family socioeconomic status.
B. The urbanization of growth region results in the difference of attaining higher education. Therefore, students from less-urbanization regions tend to enter in public schools, vocational schools and technological department.
C. The urbanization of growth region has a positive impact on the first job wage, and it also has positive interaction with higher education school type. This means that the wage of urban students are higher than the wage of rural students. Additionally, students who graduate from public schools earn more money than those from private schools. The gap of wage gets larger due to urbanization.
D. The moving experience from rural to urban when high students enter in the university is positive for non-urban students’ first job wage. This means that moving experience is more positive for students from less-urbanization regions
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
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