1,720,969 research outputs found

    Estimates of the reproduction ratio from epidemic surveillance may be biased in spatially structured populations

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    An accurate and timely estimate of the reproduction ratio R of an infectious disease epidemic is crucial to make projections on its evolution and set up the appropriate public health response. Estimates of R routinely come from statistical inference on timelines of cases or their proxies like symptomatic cases, hospitalizatons, deaths. Here, however, we prove that these estimates of R may not be accurate if the population is made up of spatially distinct communities, as the interplay between space and mobility may hide the true epidemic evolution from surveillance data. This means that surveillance may underestimate R over long periods, to the point of mistaking a growing epidemic for a subsiding one, misinforming public health response. To overcome this, we propose a correction to be applied to surveillance data that removes this bias and ensures an accurate estimate of R across all epidemic phases. We use COVID-19 as case study; our results, however, apply to any epidemic where mobility is a driver of circulation, including major challenges of the next decades: respiratory infections (influenza, SARS-CoV-2, emerging pathogens), vector-borne diseases (arboviruses). Our findings will help set up public health response to these threats, by improving epidemic monitoring and surveillance.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, plus Supplementary Informatio

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods

    Author Index

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    koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist

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    We have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used

    Disruption of outdoor activities caused by wildfire smoke shapes circulation of respiratory pathogens

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    As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as wildfires, are increasing, with profound impacts on human health. While much attention has been paid to the direct health consequences of these events, such as chronic diseases from poor air quality, less is known about how behavioral shifts induced by such events can influence the transmission of infectious diseases. This study investigates how wildfire-induced changes in human behavior during the U.S. West Coast wildfires of 2020 may affect the spread of airborne diseases. Using a mobility data-driven indoor activity index, we find that the wildfire-induced deterioration of air quality led to a substantial increase in indoor activities, fostering conditions conducive to airborne disease transmission. Specifically, counties in Oregon and Washington experienced an average 10.8% and 14.3% increase in indoor activity, respectively, during the wildfire events, with major cities like Portland and Seattle experiencing increases of 11% and 16%, respectively. We quantify these behavioral changes and integrate them into an SIR epidemic model to characterize the increased indoor activity and disease dynamics. The model predicts the greatest impact on diseases with shorter generation times, such as RSV and influenza. Our results show that even a modest increase in indoor mask-wearing (as low as 10%) could significantly reduce the risk of disease spread in these settings, with higher compliance needed for more substantial reductions. As wildfires and other climate-related events become more frequent, integrating behavioral responses into public health policies will be crucial to mitigate the compounded risks of climate change and its secondary health impacts.[Author summary] The effects of climate change on human health are becoming more evident, but we often overlook one crucial factor: how extreme weather events influence our behaviors and, in turn, the spread of infectious diseases. In this study, we explore the role of wildfire-induced behavioral changes on the transmission of airborne diseases, focusing on the U.S. West Coast wildfires of September 2020. Our findings show that wildfires led to a dramatic increase in indoor activities, creating the ideal conditions for respiratory diseases such as influenza to spread. But—by incorporating simple measures like indoor mask-wearing, we can reduce this risk. This research underscores the importance of considering human behavior responses when tackling health risks associated with climate change. As we face more frequent extreme events, public health strategies must evolve to address not just the environmental impact, but also the ways we adapt, react to the emergency. By understanding and planning for this behavioral response, we can better protect public health in a warming world.Research reported in this publication was supported by the Fritz-Family fellowship program to SB and GP.Peer reviewe
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