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Uncertainty in the Framework of Public Policy Analysis
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Aircraft technology's: Contribution to sustainable development
No full textAviation brings many advantages to society, reflected in its huge growth figures. But, aviation is also criticized for its many undesired effects. Sustainable Development as a concept is brought forward by many of the actors in the aviation system as a way in which aviation can develop itself in order to reduce its undesired effects. Some actors refer to expected large technological changes as a potential solution for the undesired effects of aviation in all categories of Sustainable Development. This research tries to find out if there is some truth in that last claim, by addressing the following question: What is the potential of a set of expert-selected new aircraft technologies to contribute to Sustainable Development; i.e. what is their potential to reduce actor defined adverse effects of flying while keeping the benefits? Given the results of this research, the expert-selected and assessed technologies have a potential to contribute to some characteristics of Sustainable Development, but, technology cannot keep up with the predicted growth in air travel demand, which increases the adverse effects of aviation. In addition, implementation of new technology and replacement of old technology takes a long time -- up to 40 years. Many roadblocks (e.g. airport infrastructure adaptations) need to be taken out of the way. Psychological mechanisms, such as discounting and fairness appraisal, play a delaying role in the implementation process. For the aviation system as a whole, two important drivers for innovation appear to be lacking: sense of urgency for change and availability of sufficient amounts of money. It is recommended that serious investments be made and incentives created to stimulate the development of other technologies that can contribute to sustainability. In addition, one might search for other options than technology to improve the contribution of aviation to Sustainable Development.Aerospace Engineerin
The Flexible Port
No full textPorts are beset with many uncertainties about their futures. They are confronted with new demands in terms of functions and scales, new external constraints, and changed expectations. The inability to adequately meet these demands can mean costly adaptations for a port, or loss of cargo and competitive position. A plausible reason is that the traditional practices of port planning have remained static in this dynamic world. Traditional port planners do not habitually think in terms of uncertainty, and therefore propose inflexible plans and designs based on deterministic forecasts. Clearly, a new approach is required. Flexibility helps a port to adapt to a wide range of exogenous developments. This is possible at all levels of a port infrastructure system: in its physical infrastructure, its procedures and operations, and the services it provides. This thesis proposes a method called Adaptive Port Planning (APP). Real-life case studies have established that APP can accommodate diverse planning needs and deliver flexible and robust solutions that can better withstand the vagaries of the future. In reality there are barriers, however. Adoption and successful implementation of APP by organizations involved in port planning and design faces many barriers. The conservative port industry, the nature of port projects constrained by legal procedures that limit flexibility, the traditional role assigned to an engineer doing the planning, the organizational culture that leaves little room for new techniques, the extra investments associated with flexible designs, and the fact that innovation is low priority in times of uncertainty, all represent barriers. A ‘strategic planner’ is required: a generalist who can take a holistic approach, understand the tasks of an engineer, economist, manager, and a policymaker, and is able to communicate with the many disciplines in his planning team. He must be able to integrate their knowledge, incorporate uncertainty considerations in standards and projects, seek innovative flexible solutions, and justify them to the authorities.Hydraulic EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience
Exploratory modeling and analysis: A promising method to deal with deep uncertainty
No full textFaced with policy problems with high stakes, decisionmakers have increasingly recognized the importance of appropriately handling uncertainties. The nature of policy problems, however, is changing. Of particular concern are policy problems involving deep uncertainty when analysts do not know or the parties to a decision cannot agree upon (1) the appropriate conceptual models to describe interactions among a system's variables, (2) the probability distributions to represent uncertainty about key parameters in the models, and/or (3) how to value the desirability of alternative outcomes. Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) is an analytical, model-based method for dealing with deep uncertainty. One of the foundations of EMA is the idea of exploring multiple hypotheses about the system of interest by broadening the assumptions underlying the system model. EMA explores multiple hypotheses about the system by means of computational experiments. A computational experiment is a single computer run of the system model using one set of assumptions. Each run is treated as a deterministic hypothesis about the system of interest. One can explore the system's behavior by asking for each run, what if the hypothesis was correct. Broadening the assumptions of a system model and exploring the resulting behavior poses some major challenges. These challenges include, among others, how to sample from an (almost) infinite uncertainty space, and how to digest and present the information from the many computer runs (thousands to hundreds of thousands) in a way that is useful for policy design. This dissertation addresses these challenges. It uses three policy analysis cases as a testing ground for the application, development, and evaluation of EMA: (1) a real options analysis of a power plant investment decision, (2) the implementation of Intelligent Speed Adaptation (a technological solution for improving road safety), and (3) the analysis of policies to mitigate carbon emissions in the Dutch household sector. These three applications demonstrate a number of insights that can be obtained from EMA that complement those that can be obtained from traditional policy analysis methods. First, EMA can provide insights into the boundaries between the success and failure of a policy, which can help to identify "landmines" for the policy. Second, EMA can help identify the different sets of exogenous, system and policy assumptions that can lead to the achievement of a given policy goal, which can support different parties in negotiating a common policy. Third, EMA can provide insights into the robustness of a policy across the uncertainty space, which may enable policy implementation to begin despite the uncertainties. Finally, EMA can provide a policy menu that shows which policy performs best in which circumstances, which can support policy adaptation over time. In addition to these insights into the added value of EMA, the dissertation makes a number of original contributions to the EMA methodology, in particular regarding the sampling method, the analysis of the data generated, and the presentation of the insights obtained.Technology, Policy and Managemen
Decision Support for Collaborative Airport Strategic Planning
No full textAn airport’s operation and development impacts many stakeholders. Therefore, an airport should be treated as a socio-technical system. An airport operator and its stakeholders should strategically plan and develop the airport together. This dissertation describes the development of the HARMOS Decision Support System that can facilitate such collaborative strategic planning.Aerospace Design, Integration & OperationsAerospace Engineerin
The treatment of uncertainty in airport strategic planning
No full textThe treatment of uncertainty in the long-term planning of infrastructures in general and of mainports such as airports and seaports is a key challenge for decisionmakers. Moreover, these uncertainties have increased over the last decades due to changes in owner structure, changes in rules and regulations, and the ever increasing connectedness of the world. This dissertation explores how the treatment of uncertainties in airport planning can be improved. Currently, the treatment is limited to one or a few forecasts for the future. Such an approach limits the exploration of the multiplicity of futures to those that are judged to be most likely. However, if the last decade has taught is anything, then it is that the future will be substantially different from the one we are anticipating now. The implication of this for decisionmaking is that any plan or policy optimized for one or a few forecasts is likely to perform poorly. An alternative approach that is capable of handling the multiplicity of futures and accepts the limits on predictability is needed. Such an approach should result in a plans consist of time-urgent low regret options that can be taken immediately, while establishing a framework for guiding future actions. Thus the decisionmaker is able to adapt the plan to the way in which the future unfolds. This dissertation presents such a dynamic adaptive planning approach, tailors this approach to the specifics of airport planning, and provides computational evidence for the efficacy of plans that are designed utilizing this approach.Policy AnalysisTechnology, Policy and Managemen
Adapt or Perish: An Approach to Planning Under Deep Uncertainty
No full textMuch policy advice is formulated implicitly assuming that the future can be predicted. A static policy is developed using a single ‘most likely’ future, often based on the extrapolation of trends; or a static ‘robust’ policy is developed that will produce acceptable outcomes in a range of plausible future worlds. However, if the future turns out to be different from the hypothesized future(s), the policy might fail. Furthermore, not only is the future highly uncertain, the conditions policymakers need to deal with are changing over time. This paper begins by defining what is meant by ‘deep uncertainty’. It then describes a new approach for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty that is based on creating a strategic vision of the future, committing to short-term actions, and establishing a framework to guide future actions. A policy that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet the changing circumstances.Control & OperationsAerospace Engineerin
Clearing the Road for ISA Implementation? Applying Adaptive Policymaking for the Implementation of Intelligent Speed Adaptation
No full textIntelligente Snelheid Assistent of ISA is de benaming voor een categorie in-vehicle systemen die bestuurder helpen om zich te houden aan de lokale snelheidslimiet (m.a.w. die er voor zorgen dat bestuurder niet te hard rijdt, of er zelfs voor zorgen dat de bestuurder nooit meer te hard kan rijden). De vele (veld) testen die in het verleden gedaan wijzen er allemaal op dat ISA een grote bijdrage zou kunnen leveren aan de verkeersveiligheid. Ondanks het grote potentieel (experts schatten dat een begrenzende ISA in Nederland jaarlijks meer dan 200 doden kan schelen) is ISA tot op de dag van vandaag niet geïmplementeerd. Om beter om te gaan met de onzekerheden die nog spelen rond de implementatie van ISA systemen en om uiteindelijk te komen tot duurzaam beleid met betrekking tot ISA implementatie wordt in het proefschrift een conceptuele aanpak gehanteerd die Adaptive Policymaking (APM) heet. APM is erop gericht om adaptief beleid te maken door vooraf na te denken over de onzekerheden die spelen en de manier waarop het beleid kan falen. Vervolgens wordt het beleid adaptief gemaakt door te bepalen op welke manier er gereageerd moet worden om de uiteindelijke beleidsdoelen te halen (beleid aanpassen, flankerend beleid maken, etc.). In dit proefschrift wordt onderzocht of APM geschikt is voor het ontwerpen van ISA implementatiebeleid voor Nederland. De resultaten laten zien dat ISA klaar is om geïmplementeerd te worden. Beleidsmakers zouden om kunnen gaan met de onzekerheden die spelen door op kleine schaal te beginnen met implementeren en als de tijd verstrijkt geleidelijk het beleid aan te passen aan de nieuwe kennis en omstandigheden (adaptief beleid). APM is een beleidsaanpak die daarbij zou kunnen helpen. De resultaten laten zien dat het ontwerpen van adaptief ISA implementatiebeleid met behulp van APM de kansen vergroot dat het ontworpen beleid, ondanks de onzekerheden die er nog zijn, de vooraf gedefinieerde beleidsdoelen haalt (in het geval van ISA een reductie in het aantal verkeersdoden, gewonden en ongevallen met schade). Desondanks geven de geraadpleegde experts ook aan dat ontwikkelde adaptieve ISA implementatiebeleid hoogstwaarschijnlijk strandt in de besluitvormingsfase (dus dat er geen beslissing over implementatie kan worden genomen). Dit komt omdat het expliciteren van de onzekerheden die nog spelen rondom de implementatie van ISA ertoe zal leiden dat politici helemaal geen beslissing kunnen of durven nemen. ? Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) is an in-vehicle system that supports the driver of a vehicle in complying with the local speed limit (In other words, that helps the driver to comply with the legal speed limit, or make sure the driver cannot drive faster than the speed limit). There is strong evidence that ISA has a great potential when it comes to contributing to traffic safety. However, ISA implementation is being delayed because of many uncertainties. Despite the large potential (it is estimated that a restricting ISA could save up to 200 lives per year in the Netherlands), ISA systems are not implemented yet. This dissertation focuses on the application of a conceptual approach called Adaptive Policy making (APM). APM is designed to develop policies that can be adapted over time, adaptive policies change as the external conditions change. In this dissertation the applicability of APM for ISA implementation in the Netherlands is researched, by operationalizing, applying, and evaluating the APM approach (for the case of ISA). The results show that ISA is ready to be implemented. Policymakers can deal with the uncertainties that still exist by starting to implement ISA on a small scale, and, as time proceeds, gradually adapt the ISA implementation policy to changing conditions. APM is an approach that could support that process. The results also show that designing adaptive ISA implementation policies with APM increases the chance that the policy will be a success, and reaches the predefined goals. (In case of ISA these goals would be: a reduction in the number of accidents, reduction of fatalities due to road accidents, etc.) Despite this experts also indicate that the developed adaptive ISA implementation policy will cause difficulties in the decision making process, and probably results in the fact that decision makers cannot take a decision at all. (It is indicated that making the uncertainties that surround ISA implementation explicit will be counter-productive for the decision making process).Multi Actor SystemsTechnology, Policy and Managemen
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