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Essays in social policy
Full text linkThis dissertation explores the political determinants and consequences of social policies in advanced economies. In its four papers, it aims to contribute to our understanding of how social policies influence the political and electoral behaviour of voters as well as the ways in which electoral outcomes determine social policies. Paper 1 investigates the statistical sources of model uncertainty in the literature of welfare state determinants. It approaches this issue by quantifying the sensitivity of empirical estimates towards different model specification choices, including the control variable set, the fixed effect structure, the standard error type, the country sample, the period sample and the operationalisation of the dependent variable. By developing an Augmented Extreme Bounds Analysis (A-EBA) method combined with a grid-search deep learning approach, the paper reveals that the selection of the country and period sample and the operationalisation of welfare state generosity has a substantially larger impact on the coefficients and standard errors in generosity estimations than the control set. Paper 2 quantifies the electoral returns to campaign promises on social benefit expansions. By applying a discontinuity-based research design on survey data in Germany, the results show that promises on pension benefit expansions swing voters to the pledge-making party. This alignment gain, however, is only transitory as the effect diminishes shortly after pledge fulfilment suggesting that even unbroken promises on very generous welfare state policy expansions do not yield long-term political support. Paper 3 measures the mobilising effect of pension benefit expansions in the US. The paper matches voting records with a large administrative dataset on pension payments to retired public employees in Illinois. The results of a discontinuity-based research design show that pension benefits increase electoral participation in the short run among Democrat voters, particularly among those with lower levels of income. In contrast, Republican and/or unaffiliated voters remain unresponsive. Thus, the results suggest that policy feedbacks depend strongly on voters’ ideological and material predisposition. Paper 4 examines whether the provision of social benefits and assistance programmes can mitigate the political costs of unpopular policies, such as climate change policies. By applying an instrumental variable approach to a dataset covering a large set of advanced economies over time, the estimates show that the welfare state can be a viable tool to prevent electoral punishment the incumbent receives for passing unpopular policies. These findings highlight that the welfare state can generate the political and electoral support that is necessary for urgently needed measures in times of global warming
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Mixing apples with oranges? Partisanship and active labour market policies in Europe
Full text linkThere are competing theoretical expectations and conflicting empirical results concerning the impact of partisanship on spending on active labour market policies (ALMPs). This paper argues that one should distinguish between different ALMPs. Employment incentives and rehabilitation programmes incentivize the unemployed to accept jobs. Direct job creation reduces the supply of labour by creating non-commercial jobs. Training schemes raise the human capital of the unemployed. Using regression analysis this paper shows that the positions of political parties towards these three types of ALMPs are different. Party preferences also depend on the welfare regime in which parties are located. In Scandinavia, left-wing parties support neither employment incentives nor direct job creation schemes. In continental and Liberal welfare regimes, left-wing parties oppose employment incentives and rehabilitation programmes to a lesser extent and they support direct job creation. There is no impact of partisanship on training. These results reconcile the previously contradictory findings concerning the impact of the Left on ALMPs
Explaining perceptions of the unemployed in Europe
No full textThis article explores the determinants of the perceptions of the unemployed in 29 European countries along three dimensions: whether people see the unemployed as the ‘government’s responsibility’; whether they believe the unemployed do not ‘try hard to find a job’; and whether they think that the standard of living of the unemployed is ‘bad’. I derive a number of expectations from the political economy literature on policy preferences and test whether these expectations explain variation in the perceptions of the unemployed. Using logistic regression analysis, I find that labour market status and occupations influence individuals’ perceptions of the unemployed. For instance, the unemployed and workers in low skill occupations are most likely to think that the government is responsible for the standard of living of the unemployed. However, certain factors such as gender, occupations, education, and union membership affect distinct types of perceptions differently. The determinants of policy preferences help us make sense of perceptions of the unemployed but certain factors affect different types of perceptions in distinct ways
Essays on labour market dualisation in Western Europe: active labour market policies, temporary work regulation and inequality
No full textEuropean labour markets are increasingly divided between insiders in full-time permanent employment and outsiders in precarious work or unemployment. Using quantitative as well as qualitative methods, this thesis investigates the determinants and consequences of labour market policies that target these outsiders in three separate papers. The first paper looks at Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) that target the unemployed. It shows that left and right-wing parties choose different types of ALMPs depending on the policy and the welfare regime in which the party is located. These findings reconcile the conflicting theoretical expectations from the Power Resource approach and the insider-outsider theory. The second paper considers the regulation and protection of the temporary work sector. It solves the puzzle of temporary re-regulation in France, which contrasts with most other European countries that have deregulated temporary work. Permanent workers are adversely affected by the expansion of temporary work in France because of general skills and low wage coordination. The interests of temporary and permanent workers for re-regulation therefore overlap in France and left governments have an incentive to re-regulate the sector. The third paper then investigates what determines inequality between median and bottom income workers. It shows that non-inclusive economic coordination increases inequality in the absence of compensating institutions such as minimum wage regulation. The deregulation of temporary work as well as spending on employment incentives and rehabilitation also has adverse effects on inequality. Thus, policies that target outsiders have important economic effects on the rest of the workforce. Three broader contributions can be identified. First, welfare state policies may not always be in the interests of labour, so left parties may not always promote them. Second, the interests of insiders and outsiders are not necessarily at odds. Third, economic coordination may not be conducive to egalitarianism where it is not inclusive
The political economy of individual level support for the basic income in Europe
Full text linkThere is a long-standing debate in academic and policy making circles about the normative merits and economic effects of a Universal Basic Income (UBI). However, existing literature does not sufficiently address the question of the factors associated with individual support for a UBI. While a large literature in political economy has focused on individual preferences for existing welfare state benefits, it has not analysed the case of a UBI. Using the eighth wave of the European Social Survey (ESS), this article seeks to remedy this gap by analysing individual support for a UBI in 21 European countries. The findings from logistic regression analyses with country fixed effects are partly consistent with the expectations of previous social policy and political economy literatures. Younger, low-income, left-leaning individuals and the unemployed are more likely to support a UBI. Individuals with positive views of benefit recipients, and/or high trust in political institutions are also more supportive, while anti-immigration attitudes are associated with lower support. However, the patterns across occupations is mixed and male respondents appear slightly more supportive. Trade union membership is not statistically significant, perhaps because of contradictory effects: unions typically support new welfare state policies but they also have a key role in many existing welfare state schemes and may worry about individuals’ attachment to the labour market. At the country level, support tends to be higher where activation is more pronounced and unemployment benefits less generous. These results suggest one possible reason why countries with large support for a UBI have not introduced it: the mixed support among the Left means a pro- UBI coalition has to draw on right-wing voters who may support it only with lower taxes and/or extensive replacement of welfare state benefits, which in turn may further alienate parts of the Left
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Essays on labour market dualisation in Western Europe: active labour market policies, temporary work regulation and inequality
No full textEuropean labour markets are increasingly divided between insiders in full-time permanent employment and outsiders in precarious work or unemployment. Using quantitative as well as qualitative methods, this thesis investigates the determinants and consequences of labour market policies that target these outsiders in three separate papers. The first paper looks at Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) that target the unemployed. It shows that left and right-wing parties choose different types of ALMPs depending on the policy and the welfare regime in which the party is located. These findings reconcile the conflicting theoretical expectations from the Power Resource approach and the insider-outsider theory. The second paper considers the regulation and protection of the temporary work sector. It solves the puzzle of temporary re-regulation in France, which contrasts with most other European countries that have deregulated temporary work. Permanent workers are adversely affected by the expansion of temporary work in France because of general skills and low wage coordination. The interests of temporary and permanent workers for re-regulation therefore overlap in France and left governments have an incentive to re-regulate the sector. The third paper then investigates what determines inequality between median and bottom income workers. It shows that non-inclusive economic coordination increases inequality in the absence of compensating institutions such as minimum wage regulation. The deregulation of temporary work as well as spending on employment incentives and rehabilitation also has adverse effects on inequality. Thus, policies that target outsiders have important economic effects on the rest of the workforce. Three broader contributions can be identified. First, welfare state policies may not always be in the interests of labour, so left parties may not always promote them. Second, the interests of insiders and outsiders are not necessarily at odds. Third, economic coordination may not be conducive to egalitarianism where it is not inclusive
The Political Economy of Collective Skill Formation, edited by Marius R. Busemeyer and Christine Trampusch
No full textEssays on labour market dualisation in Western Europe: active labour market policies, temporary work regulation and inequality
No full textEuropean labour markets are increasingly divided between insiders in full-time permanent employment and outsiders in precarious work or unemployment. Using quantitative as well as qualitative methods, this thesis investigates the determinants and consequences of labour market policies that target these outsiders in three separate
papers. The first paper looks at Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) that target the unemployed. It shows that left and right-wing parties choose different types of
ALMPs depending on the policy and the welfare regime in which the party is located. These findings reconcile the conflicting theoretical expectations from the Power
Resource approach and the insider-outsider theory.
The second paper considers the regulation and protection of the temporary work sector. It solves the puzzle of temporary re-regulation in France, which contrasts with most other European countries that have deregulated temporary work. Permanent workers are adversely affected by the expansion of temporary work in France because of general skills and low wage coordination. The interests of temporary and permanent
workers for re-regulation therefore overlap in France and left governments have an incentive to re-regulate the sector. The third paper then investigates what determines inequality between median and bottom income workers. It shows that non-inclusive economic coordination increases
inequality in the absence of compensating institutions such as minimum wage regulation. The deregulation of temporary work as well as spending on employment incentives and rehabilitation also has adverse effects on inequality. Thus, policies that target outsiders have important economic effects on the rest of the workforce. Three broader contributions can be identified. First, welfare state policies may not always be in the interests of labour, so left parties may not always promote them. Second, the interests of insiders and outsiders are not necessarily at odds. Third, economic coordination may not be conducive to egalitarianism where it is not inclusive
The political consequences of labor market dualization: Labor market status, occupational unemployment and policy preferences
Full text linkThis article explores empirically how different types of labor market inequality affect policy preferences in post-industrial societies. I argue that the two main conceptualizations of labor market vulnerability identified in the insider–outsider literature are complementary: labor market risks are shaped by both labor market status—whether an individual is unemployed, in a temporary or permanent contract—and occupational unemployment—whether an individual is in an occupation with high or low unemployment. As a result, both status and occupation are important determinants of individual labor market policy preferences. In this paper, I first briefly conceptualize the link between labor market divides, risks and policy preferences, and then use cross-national survey data to investigate the determinants of preferences
Universal basic income: the new political economy of an old idea
Full text linkThe idea of a universal, unconditional and regular basic income provided to all has a long history and academic lineage. In this chapter, we explore the new political economy of this old idea in the context of enduring and novel labour market challenges, most notably precarity and insecurity, arising from deindustrialisation, globalisation and automation. We show that most existing literature has focused on the normative desirability and economic feasibility of introducing a basic income. More recent studies have started to pay attention to the crucial role of politics of a basic income. We argue that the political economy of a basic income follows well-established income and labour market risks cleavages in the electorates, while cutting across traditional partisan conflict lines of both voter and interest groups. The resulting cross-cutting politics of support for basic income will crucially shape the likely future of UBI and its ability to address labour market challenges
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