1,720,967 research outputs found
The effects of firm entry and exit on macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary policy
Get PDFAbstractThis paper studies how endogenous firm entry affects the responses of the economy to the monetary policy, cost-push and demand shocks. Opposite to the earlier literature we assume also that firm default rate is not constant but subject to exogenous shocks. We show that increased bankruptcies have long-standing negative effect on output and positive effect on inflation. This raises the question how monetary policy should react to the variability in business defaults. Based on our simulations we propose two alternative monetary policy rules, which give lower variance than the traditional Taylor rule which reacts to inflation and consumption.Abstract
This paper studies how endogenous firm entry affects the responses of the economy to the monetary policy, cost-push and demand shocks. Opposite to the earlier literature we assume also that firm default rate is not constant but subject to exogenous shocks. We show that increased bankruptcies have long-standing negative effect on output and positive effect on inflation. This raises the question how monetary policy should react to the variability in business defaults. Based on our simulations we propose two alternative monetary policy rules, which give lower variance than the traditional Taylor rule which reacts to inflation and consumption
The Effects of Endogenous Firm Exit on Business Cycle Dynamics and Optimal Fiscal Policy
No full textWe explore the implications of endogenous firm entry and exit for business cycle dynamics and optimal fiscal policy. We first show that when the firm exit rate is endogenous, negative technology shocks lead to reductions in the number of firms. Technology shocks therefore have additional effects on household welfare relative to an economy with only endogenous entry. Second, endogenous firm exit creates a new channel for monetary policy when debt contracts are written in nominal terms, as monetary shocks affect the rate of firm defaults. Monetary shocks therefore have real effects also when prices and wages are flexible. Third, we show that endogenous firm exit creates a new role for fiscal policy to increase efficiency and welfare by subsidizing firms and decreasing the number of defaults. Finally, we demonstrate that endogenous firm exit implies that non-persistent shocks to technology and money supply have persistent effects on labor productivity. This has implications for the estimated persistence of technology shocks.firm defaults; money supply shock; labor productivity
Two tales of the natural rate of interest
No full textWe estimate the long-term natural rate of interest for the euro area with two specifications of a simple semi-structural macroeconomic model. The estimates provide competing interpretations for the euro area’s current economic environment of weak growth, subdued inflation and exceptionally low nominal interest rates. In our first estimation, the current state of economy is attributed to persistent, recurring negative shocks to the output gap that restrain growth even when expansionary monetary policies are applied. The second estimation suggests that a large drop in the natural rate of interest is the problem, because, even with interest rates held close to zero, policy actions have not been able to revive the economy after major shocks in 2008, 2012 and 2016. As both views may explain some of the observed trends, the task of teasing out the drivers of current conditions and future trends is non-trivial. Nevertheless, policymakers should pay attention to both stories as they have quite different endings
The effects of endogenous firm exit on business cycle dynamics and optimal fiscal policy
Get PDFWe explore the implications of endogenous firm entry and exit for business cycle dynamics and optimal fiscal policy. We first show that when the firm exit rate is endogenous, negative technology shocks lead to reductions in the number of firms. Technology shocks therefore have additional effects on household welfare relative to an economy with only endogenous entry. Second, endogenous firm exit creates a new channel for monetary policy when debt contracts are written in nominal terms, as monetary shocks affect the rate of firm defaults. Monetary shocks therefore have real effects also when prices and wages are flexible. Third, we show that endogenous firm exit creates a new role for fiscal policy to increase efficiency and welfare by subsidizing firms and decreasing the number of defaults. Finally, we demonstrate that endogenous firm exit implies that non-persistent shocks to technology and money supply have persistent effects on labor productivity. This has implications for the estimated persistence of technology shocks
Tutkimuksia yritysten markkinoilletulon ja markkinoilta poistumisen makrotaloudellisista vaikutuksista
No full textAbstractStandard macroeconomic models based on a representative firm ignore firm entry and exit. Therefore, these models miss a potentially significant channel of economic interactions through the firm dynamics. This doctoral thesis examines the role of firm dynamics in the economy through four essays. The first essay examines the impact of monetary policy on firm entry. The essay finds that substantial inertia exists in the firm entry process. Based on the empirical evidence on firm dynamics, the second essay develops a real business cycle model in which firm entry is endogenous and default rates are stochastic. The essay studies how default shocks affect the economy. We concentrate on the stochastic properties of the model and show that the stochastic default rate is a potential explanation for the observed low correlation between labor productivity and hours worked. The third essay contributes to the previous literature by studying how endogenous exit rates affect business cycle dynamics in an economy subject to technology and money supply shocks. The fourth essay concentrates on the impact of exchange rate shocks on competition and import prices. The paper finds weak evidence that the changes in competition after a currency devaluation increase import prices. However, this effect occurs only in the long run (i.e., one year after the shock), and its magnitude varies greatly across countries. TiivistelmäTässä väitöskirjassa tutkitaan yritysten markkinoilletulon ja markkinoilta poistumisen vaikutuksia talouden dynamiikkaan. Väitöskirja koostuu neljästä erillisestä esseestä. Ensimmäisessä esseessä tutkitaan rahapolitiikan vaikutusta yritysten markkinoilletuloon. Siinä löydetään yritysten syntymiseen liittyviä kustannuksia, jotka hidastavat koko talouden sopeutumista rahapoliittiseen sokkiin. Toisessa esseessä tutkitaan stokastisen yritysten markkinoilta poistumisen vaikutuksia makrotaloudellisiin muuttujiin. Havaitaan, että yritysten poistuminen markkinoilta on mahdollinen selitys aikaisemmassa kirjallisuudessa todettuun työn tuottavuuden ja tehtyjen työtuntien väliseen alhaiseen korrelaatioon. Kolmannessa esseessä endogenisoidaan yritysten poistuminen markkinoilta ja tutkitaan teknologian ja rahapolitiikan sokkien vaikutusta yritysten konkurssien määrään. Neljännessä esseessä puolestaan tutkitaan, miten valuuttakurssimuutokset vaikuttavat ulkomaisten yritysten markkinoilletuloon ja hinnoitteluun. Esseessä löydetään heikkoja todisteita siitä, että valuuttadevalvaation jälkeinen ulkomaisen kilpailun muutos nostaa tuontihintoja. Tämä vaikutus ilmenee kuitenkin vasta yli vuoden kuluttua sokista, ja sen suuruus vaihtelee suuresti maittain. Academic dissertation to be presented with the assent of The Doctoral Training Committee of Human Sciences, University of Oulu for public defence in Arina-sali (Auditorium TA105), Linnanmaa, on 13 April 2012, at 12 noonAbstract
Standard macroeconomic models based on a representative firm ignore firm entry and exit. Therefore, these models miss a potentially significant channel of economic interactions through the firm dynamics. This doctoral thesis examines the role of firm dynamics in the economy through four essays.
The first essay examines the impact of monetary policy on firm entry. The essay finds that substantial inertia exists in the firm entry process. Based on the empirical evidence on firm dynamics, the second essay develops a real business cycle model in which firm entry is endogenous and default rates are stochastic. The essay studies how default shocks affect the economy. We concentrate on the stochastic properties of the model and show that the stochastic default rate is a potential explanation for the observed low correlation between labor productivity and hours worked. The third essay contributes to the previous literature by studying how endogenous exit rates affect business cycle dynamics in an economy subject to technology and money supply shocks. The fourth essay concentrates on the impact of exchange rate shocks on competition and import prices. The paper finds weak evidence that the changes in competition after a currency devaluation increase import prices. However, this effect occurs only in the long run (i.e., one year after the shock), and its magnitude varies greatly across countries.Tiivistelmä
Tässä väitöskirjassa tutkitaan yritysten markkinoilletulon ja markkinoilta poistumisen vaikutuksia talouden dynamiikkaan. Väitöskirja koostuu neljästä erillisestä esseestä.
Ensimmäisessä esseessä tutkitaan rahapolitiikan vaikutusta yritysten markkinoilletuloon. Siinä löydetään yritysten syntymiseen liittyviä kustannuksia, jotka hidastavat koko talouden sopeutumista rahapoliittiseen sokkiin. Toisessa esseessä tutkitaan stokastisen yritysten markkinoilta poistumisen vaikutuksia makrotaloudellisiin muuttujiin. Havaitaan, että yritysten poistuminen markkinoilta on mahdollinen selitys aikaisemmassa kirjallisuudessa todettuun työn tuottavuuden ja tehtyjen työtuntien väliseen alhaiseen korrelaatioon. Kolmannessa esseessä endogenisoidaan yritysten poistuminen markkinoilta ja tutkitaan teknologian ja rahapolitiikan sokkien vaikutusta yritysten konkurssien määrään. Neljännessä esseessä puolestaan tutkitaan, miten valuuttakurssimuutokset vaikuttavat ulkomaisten yritysten markkinoilletuloon ja hinnoitteluun. Esseessä löydetään heikkoja todisteita siitä, että valuuttadevalvaation jälkeinen ulkomaisen kilpailun muutos nostaa tuontihintoja. Tämä vaikutus ilmenee kuitenkin vasta yli vuoden kuluttua sokista, ja sen suuruus vaihtelee suuresti maittain
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve
No full textThis paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation dynamics. Its forecasting performance is also comparable to the performance of the ECB's official forecasts in both short- and long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light updating procedure it provides almost real-time information on inflation outlook
- …
